New National Intelligence Estimate on Iran Expected

Gen. David Petraeus, the commander of US forces in Near East and Central Asia, told NBC’s “Meet the Press” on Sunday that a new national intelligence estimate on Iran’s nuclear program was being developed.

"There is... a new national intelligence estimate being developed by our intelligence community in the United States," he said [AFP, 21 February].

In 2007, the US intelligence community released a surprising national intelligence estimate (NIE) saying Iran had halted its research on developing nuclear weapon capabilities in 2003. The report ended widespread speculations in the media that the US was ready to take military action against Iranian nuclear facilities. Gen. Petraeus did not say if the new NIE would contain references to any ongoing nuclear weapon programs in Iran.

Gen. Petraeus said however that the US is raising the stakes in its bid to halt Iran’s nuclear program by choosing a “pressure track” as opposed to a diplomatic one.

"I think that no one at the end of this time can say that the United States and the rest of the world have not given Iran every opportunity to resolve the issues diplomatically.

"That puts us in a solid foundation now to go on what is termed the pressure track. That's the course on which we are embarked now," Petraeus said.

US General Discusses Contingency Plans on Iran

General David Petraeus, the commander of US Central Command (CENTCOM), whose area of responsibility includes the Near East and the Persian Gulf region, today told CNN that the US has contingency plans to deal with Iran's heavily fortified nuclear facilities.

“Well, they certainly can be bombed," General Petraeus said. “The level of effect would vary with who it is that carries it out, what ordnance they have, and what capability they can bring to bear.”

"It would be almost literally irresponsible if CENTCOM were not to have been thinking about the various 'what ifs' and to make plans for a whole variety of different contingencies," Petraeus said.

General Petraeus said there was still time for the international community to engage Iran in diplomacy, noting there is no deadline on the enactment of any US contingency plans.

But he added "there's a period of time, certainly, before all this might come to a head, if you will." [CNN, 10 January 2010].

The US administration maintains that notwithstanding the contingency plans, the military option in dealing with Iran’s nuclear program is not being considered, while Iran maintains that its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes.

Petraeus declined to comment on Israel’s military capabilities or its intentions regarding the Iranian program.

Petreaus Accuses Iran of Fueling Violence in Iraq

During a hearing at Senate Armed Services Committee today, the commander of US forces in Iran, General David Petreaus, accused Iran of “funding, training, arming and directing” the Shia extremist groups in Iraq. Gen. Petreaus also said that the Iraqi leaders are now recognizing the threat posed by Iran.

The US military had in the past accused Iran of funding, training and arming Shia militias in Iraq. What was new in Peteaus testimony today was the assertion that Iran is also “directing” the so-called special groups’ actions in Iraq.

Any assertion of tactical command role played by Iran in armed clashes, like what happened in Basra last week, could have immense consequences on US relations with Iran. It would renew concern that such assertions could be precursor to a military attack on Iran, even though the mathematics involving the availability of US troops to open a new front against Iran is highly questionable.

Petreaus’s assertion that the Iraqi leaders, notwithstanding their close ties to Iran, are also recognizing the threat posed by Iran was also very significant. This was a hint that Iran could be supporting the Mahdi Army and other Shia extremist special groups at the expense of the Shia-dominated government in Baghdad. If correct, we should expect renewed fighting inside Iraq and the widening of conflict beyond the borders with Iran.

News from Iran

Reports of the annual Quds (Jerusalem) Day demonstrations against Israel and the state of US-Iran relations dominated the coverage in Iranian media. President Ahmadinejad said if the Holocaust really happened, the Western countries were responsible and should be making up for it and should provide land for “all the Zionists.” Ahmadinejad called for moving the Israelis to Alaska and Canada. On US-Iran relations, Ahmadinejad said no talks with Washington until US changes its positions against the Islamic Republic.

On military front, Iran announced development of a new 2000-pound optically-guided “smart” bomb, called Ghadr. The Iranian air force inaugurated a new air base near the border with Afghanistan. The air force commander said the base was needed to counter the threats posed by US forces in Afghanistan. On nuclear issue, Iran reiterated its position that it will not suspend its uranium enrichment. France called for tougher sanctions to force Iran to suspend its enrichment program.

Quds (Jerusalem) Day

· Iran’s President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said if the Holocaust really happened, the Western countries have been responsible for it; he called on the West to make up for it; Ahmadinejad said Israelis should be expelled to Alaska and Canada; he said there are plenty of lands available for “the Zionists” in Alaska and Canada.
· President Ahmadinejad vowed Iran would continue resistance until “all of Palestine is liberated from Israel's hands.”
· Tens of thousands of Iranians marched in solidarity with Palestinians in cities across Iran; the crowd chanted "Death to Israel" in annual Quds (Jerusalem) Day.

US-Iran Relations

· President George Bush said US is not gearing up to attack Iran; President Bush said he remains committed to resolve the nuclear standoff diplomatically; he said Iran needs to suspend its nuclear program; Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman said President Bush’s condition for suspension of enrichment is not acceptable.
· Iran’s President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said no talks with US until Washington changes its policies toward Iran; he said Iran is worried about US “warmongers” and their atomic bombs.
· Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini said Iran is prepared to hold talks with US based on mutual rights and without preconditions; Hosseini said President Bush’s remarks of not gearing up to attack Iran was clearer than before; he added talks conditional on suspension of enrichment is unacceptable.
· US military commander in Iraq, Gen. David Petraeus, said Iran’s ambassador to Iraq, Hassan Kazemi Qomi, was a member of IRGC’s Quds Force; Gen. Petraeus said US military can not move against Ambassador Qumi due to his diplomatic immunity; Gen. Petraeus accused Quds Force of “lethal activities” inside Iraq.
· Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini said American officials hinder freedom of Iranian national Mahmoud Farhadi arrested in Suleymaniya and five Iranian consular officials in Erbil; Hosseini said the efforts made so far have got nowhere due to American procrastination; he insisted Farhadi was a businessman and was not smuggling roadside bombs into Iraq; US military accuses Farhadi of smuggling bombs and membership in IRGC’s Quds Force.
· Iraqi national security adviser Muaffak Al Rubaie said attack on Iran will be a “fatal mistake”; Al Rubaie also accused Iran of meddling into Iraq’s internal affairs; "Our neighbors are playing a very negative role," he said of Iran.
· French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner said Iran does everything in Iraq to promote conflicts between religious sects; Kouchner said Iran gives assistance to both Shia and Sunni militias; he added Iraq has become a “dream sphere of influence” for Iran.

Iran Nuclear Program

· International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) delegation arrived in Tehran for talks over Iran’s nuclear program; the talks covered outstanding questions related to P1 and P2 centrifuges used in uranium enrichment.
· IAEA chief Mohammad ElBaradei warned Iran must soon provide key details on its nuclear research capabilities and its nuclear weaponization capacity; ElBaradei added nobody would be able to support Iran if it does not come clean on all outstanding questions.
· French President Nicolas Sarkozy called for tougher sanctions against Iran; "Between resignation and war, there is a responsible attitude: increasing sanctions to bring Iran to reason,” said Sarkozy; Britain backed France on Iran sanctions; EU was to debate on 15 October whether to impose its own set of new sanctions against Iran; French foreign minister Bernard Kouchner proposed exploring “new European measures” in parallel to negotiations on a new UNSC resolution.
· Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini ruled out any suspension of uranium enrichment activities; Hosseini said talks of nuclear freeze are “outdated.”
· Iran’s President Ahmadinejad said President Bush’s call for an end to Iranian enrichment program is a mistake; “This strategy is useless,” said Ahmadinejad; he added Iran considers it meaningless to talk about nuclear rights of Iranian nation”; Ahmadinejad said Iran has overcome difficult hurdles on its nuclear path and no power can stop it now.

Major Domestic Storylines

· Iranian military announced it has developed a new 2,000-pound optically guided smart bomb called Ghadr; the precision ordnance is a new version of Ghased, also a 2,000-pound smart bomb developed earlier this year; in August, Islamic Republic of Iran Air Force (IRIAF) test-fired Ghased from its F-4 and F-5 fighter jets; production line for 200-pound bombs was inaugurated in August.
· IRIAF inaugurated a new air force base in Birjand, near Iran’s eastern border with Afghanistan; IRIAF Commander Brig. Gen. Ahmad Mighani said inauguration of the airbase was aimed at responding to a possible attack on Iran from US forces in Afghanistan; IRIAF operated 12 bases mostly in Western regions of Iran.
· Student protestors demonstrated against a visit to University of Tehran by Iran’s president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad; Keyhan estimated number of protestors at 600; protestors chanted anti-Ahmadinejad slogans; students carried placards calling for release from prison of their fellow students.

Major Regional Storylines

· Iran reopened its border with Iraqi Kurdistan; the border was closed in protest of arrest of an Iranian national, Mahmoud Farhadi; US military accused Farhadi of smuggling deadly roadside bombs into Iraq; Farhadi was still in US custody.
· British Prime Minister Gordon Brown agreed to support any possible US air strikes and Special Forces raids against IRGC bases; Britain's Special Air Service Regiment was tasked to take part in any Special Forces raids inside Iran; the Royal Navy was also expected to combat Iranian retaliation in the Persian Gulf.
· Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman said Iran insists on its sovereignty over three islands of Abu Moussa and Greater and Lesser Tunbs; “The ownership of islands is not a negotiable issue,” Mohammad Ali Hosseini said; The Kuwaiti foreign minister speaking at UN General Assembly said the islands belong to UAE and not to Iran; Hosseini rejected Kuwaiti declaration.
· Iran’s Majlis Speaker Gholam Ali Haddad Alel said Israel is not in a “position to have the illusion of attacking Iran”; Haddad Adel was asked whether recent Israeli air strike on Syria was a message for Iran.

US Accuse Iran Envoy of Quds Membership

The US military commander in Iraq, Gen. David Petraeus said today Hassan Kazemi Qomi, Iran’s ambassador in Baghdad, is a member of IRGC’s Quds Force. Gen. Petraeus added that Qomi’s diplomatic immunity prevents US to take any action against him.

The US military arrested an Iranian national, Mahmoud Farhadi, in Iraqi Kurdistan nearly three weeks ago. The military accuses Farhadi of being a high-ranking officer in the Quds Force. Gen. Petreaus did not reveal if the information on Qomi’s membership in the Quds Force was provided by Farhadi.

Gen. Petraeus accused the Quds Force of “malign, lethal involvement and activities” in Iraq.