Friday, January 2, 2009

On Gaza

The repercussions of the Israeli bombardments of Gaza are being felt in the entire region.

1. Kadima/Labor move to a) unseat Hamas and b) gain upper hand in the upcoming elections against Bibi Netanyahu is not succeeding. Hamas popularity can increase in the aftermath of the tragic consequences of the bombardment of densely-populated areas. Hamas does not fall by aerial attack; it falls if the Gazans turn against it and accept Mahmoud Abbas as their leader, an unlikely scenario. An outcome similar to the 33-Day War can also play into the hands of Bibi Netanyahu, calling for change of an inept government.

2. The moderate Arab governments will pay a high price. The most precarious situation is in Egypt. Not that the Egyptians have found a new hero in Hamas. But with their lives in near economic ruins, they can find any excuse to hit back at their government. Mubarak’s supposedly prior knowledge of the Israeli attack and the closure of Rafah border crossing during the height of the humanitarian crisis in Gaza have further damaged his reputation that can only help the Muslim Brotherhood. The Jordanian and Saudi governments are also feeling the heat.

3. Hamas inability to wage an effective military response to the Israeli bombardments once again demonstrates the inherent military weakness of an organization that is more suited to carry out terrorist activities. Hamas, however weakened, can still survive the areal attacks. Defeating it requires wining the hearts and minds of the Gazans.

4. The Islamic Republic can come out of this conflict as the only winner. By taking the moral high ground, the Iranian government can solicit the support and sympathy of the Iranians as well as the public opinion in the region. The Israeli attack has also given Ahmadinejad a new window of opportunity to highlight his anti-Israeli credentials during the upcoming presidential elections. It also gave his government an excuse to close Kargozaran, a leading moderate newspaper supporting Rafsanjani, his arch enemy.

5. The real victims of the attacks are the Gazans, with more than 400 dead and thousands injured, and a country in ruins. The Palestinian people deserve a better fate: a stable government and a country of their own. The warring sides, the Israeli government and the Hamas, are the real obstacles to achieve those goals.


Kemjika said...

Very good analysis!
Yes, moderate arab juggernauts like Saudi Arabia are looking like toothless tigers, while Iran steals their arab show! Very interesting whats happening. I am most mad @ Egypt. When the whole arab world is crying for anyone to help hamas and Gazans, Egypt turns a deaf ear. They are co-jailers of the palestinians ,and i read that a few months ago, and its really true. Israel will suffer tens of deaths if it invades Gaza with ground troops. When Ahmadinejad repeated to the middle eastthe barbaric nature of this "zionist "regime, many ignored him, and now, it looks like he was right the whole time. I guess a Ph.D Engineer and Mayor of Tehran can't be that dumb after all :)

Anonymous said...

Hi Nader,

I agree with most of what you said, but don't you think there's something funny about casting Israel and Hamas as two sides of the same coin?
This is a common enough cliche among Wester 'liberals', but I can't see an ounce of truth in it.

Also, i think Israel the Zionists can certainly benefit from this kind of a slaughter in Gaza. Abbas exposed himself as a collaborator long ago, it's doubtful his stock has much lower since the beginning of these Hostilities. These attacks by mini-rocket have simply become a fact of life for Israel, and the death, destruction and misery that Israel will wind up inflicting on Gaza will do much to promote the slow Genocide of the Palestinians that seems to be it's end game. The handful of rocket-related casualties it will take in return will relatively negligible.


Nader Uskowi said...

Dear Masoud and Kemjika,

Thanks for your comments, as always.

On Hamas, I beg to differ. I do not equate support for the Palestinian cause with support for Hamas. The organization has done irreparable damage to the Palestinian cause. May the cooler heads on both sides prevail!

Kemjika said...

Hell Nader,
GOod point again. It is true, Support for Palestine doesn't automatically = support for Hamas. On the other hand, Hamas is popular because honestly, Israel still mistreats Palestinians, whether you're Fatah, or Hamas. Ahmadinejad and Hamas' bet is that israel will act Irrational and dangerous, and right now, thats exactly what they are doing . The so called "moderate" Abbas has really achieved little while keeping relative calm with Israel. where's his reward?

Winston said...

Bullshit... the only obstacle to peace is your Iranian regime and the terrorist groups like Hamas.