Iran Could Build Bomb in a Year – US Defense Chief

US Secretary of Defense Leon Panetta today told the CBS program “60 Minutes” that Iran could develop a nuclear bomb in about a year and create the means for delivery in a further two or three years. The secretary reiterated US position to halt the effort.

“The consensus is that, if they (Iran) decided to do it, it would probably take them about a year to be able to produce a bomb and then possibly another one to two years in order to put it on a deliverable vehicle of some sort in order to deliver that weapon,” Panetta said. [CBS/AFP, 30 January].

“The United States – and the president’s made this clear –does not want Iran to develop a nuclear weapon,” Panetta added. “That’s a red line for us. And it’s a red line obviously for the Israelis so we share a common goal here.”

Panetta warned that the US “will take whatever steps are necessary to stop it” if Washington receives intelligence that Iran is proceeding with developing a nuclear weapon.

Iran to Ban Oil Exports to “Some” Countries – Oil Minister

Iran’s Oil Minister Rostam Qasemi told reporters in Tehran today that Iran will soon stop crude oil exports to “some countries” in the wake of the EU’s decision to ban oil imports from Iran. Qasemi’s announcement came hours after the Iranian parliament delayed action to cut oil deliveries to EU that were to begin on Sunday.

On 23 January, the EU foreign ministers agreed to ban oil imports from Iran and imposed sanctions against the Central Bank of Iran and froze its assets across the EU. They also gave their member state a grace period until 1 July to honor the existing oil contracts with Iran. But in a retaliatory move, the Iranian legislatures announced they would use the “double emergency” track available to them to introduce a bill to Majlis on Sunday and later vote on it to ban all oil exports to EU immediately. Then the Majlis delayed action on that move, without any explanations. But now the oil minister is saying that Iran would stop oil exports to some countries, without identifying them.

The events surrounding the sanctions are not only moving rapidly these days, but are confusing and full of intrigue and threats and counter-threats, most of them not taken seriously even with the people who have issued them. The threat to immediately ban exports to EU is just the latest, down to “some” countries for the time being. Last month, the country’s First VP said if the US and the EU went ahead with sanctions affecting oil exports, not “a drop of oil” would pass through the Strait of Hormuz. The US and the EU went ahead with the sanctions, and we still have a flow of oil through the Strait. Then the commander of the country’s military threatened the US not to send an aircraft carrier into the Persian Gulf. The US sent another carrier into the Gulf, passing through the Strait, with no incidents. So we need to be cautious on reporting and evaluating these types of threats.

The positive thing coming out of all this confusion has been that so far the cooler heads have prevailed, raising hopes that a negotiated settlement of the issues could be found. The IAEA’s current mission to Tehran ranks high on the list of such hopes.

Majlis Delays Action on Cutting Oil Deliveries to EU

Iran’s parliament, Majlis, has delayed taking action on a proposed bill to immediately cut oil deliveries to Europe in retaliation for an EU oil embargo that were to go into full effect in July. A spokesman for Majlis’s energy committee said no proposed legislation had come to the parliament floor. The Iranian media had reported yesterday that the legislation would go to Majlis floor on Sunday on “double emergency” track, meaning the legislators would have been able to vote on it after a shortened debate.

Earlier today, the German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle had called the Iranian threat to immediately halt oil exports to Europe “a regrettable and dangerous escalation in rhetoric.” He added the EU would find ways “to compensate for (Iran oil) delivery stoppages.” [AFP, 29 January].

IAEA Inspectors in Tehran

Senior Nuclear Weapons Experts on the Team

The IAEA nuclear inspectors arrived in Tehran early Sunday local time for a mission expected to focus on Iran's alleged attempt to develop nuclear weapons.

The IAEA team includes two senior weapons experts - Jacques Baute of France and Neville Whiting of South Africa. The high-level delegation is led by IAEA Deputy Director General Herman Nackaerts. Also on the team is Rafael Grossi, IAEA chief Yukiya Amano's principal aid. The composition of the team suggests that IAEA may expect the Iranians to be ready to discuss questions about parts of their program that IAEA suspects to be nuclear weapons-related.

Arab Foreign Ministers in Turkey

Top of Agenda: Continued Supply of Oil to Turkey

Foreign ministers of six Arab states of the Persian Gulf are attending the Fourth Ministerial Meeting of Turkey-Gulf Cooperation Council in Istanbul on Saturday. The meeting’s agenda is to explore ways to maintain the supply of oil to Turkey in the event of the disruption of Iran’s oil exports. The situation in Syria is also expected to be discussed during the meeting.