Syria Ceasefire Could Happen within Weeks – Kerry

Secretary of State John Kerry said today in Paris that a ceasefire between Syrian government and opposition could be just weeks away from reality. He told reporters that the ceasefire envisioned by the political process agreed upon in Vienna on Saturday would exponentially help efforts to fight the Islamic State.

“That’s a gigantic step,” Kerry said. “If we can get that done, that opens up the aperture for a whole bunch of things. We’re weeks away conceivably from the possibility of a big transition in Syria… We are not talking about months, we are talking about weeks hopefully.” (AP, 17 November)

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia will host a meeting of Syrian opposition by mid-December, at which they are to agree on a delegation to send to talks with representatives from Assad’s government. Once those negotiations begin, a ceasefire is to take effect, according to the agreement reached in Syria talks in Vienna on Saturday.

Photo: Secretary of State John Kerry in Paris (Chesnot/Getty Images/AP)

Syria Talks Begin in Vienna - UPDATE

International Syria Support Group Statement

UPDATE: Members of International Syria Support Group (ISSG) expressed a unanimous sense of urgency to end the Syrian conflict. They reiterated their support for a Syrian political transition based on 2012 Geneva Communiqué in its entirety.

ISSG members further agreed to implement a nationwide ceasefire in Syria as soon as representatives of Syrian government and the opposition have begun initial steps toward transition under UN auspices. The permanent members (P5) of the UN Security Council also agreed to support a UNSC resolution to empower a UN-endorsed ceasefire monitoring mission and to support a political transition process in accordance with the Geneva Communiqué.

ISSG agreed on the need to convene Syrian government and opposition representatives in formal negotiations under UN auspices, as soon as possible, with a target date of January 1.

It was also agreed that all parties to the political process should adhere to fundamental principles of Syria’s unity, independence, territorial integrity, and non-sectarian character; to ensure that State institutions remain intact; and to protecting the rights of all Syrians, regardless of ethnicity or religious denomination.

ISSG will reconvene in a month.

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The meeting of the International Syria Support Group (ISSG) resumed in Vienna today, as the foreign ministers participating in negotiations set aside their differences at least temporarily and condemned Paris attacks. Secretary of State John Kerry, standing next to the Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, said the Islamic State’s terrorist attacks “encouraged us today to do even harder work to make progress and to help resolve the crises that we face.” Lavrov added, “No justification for terrorist acts, and no justification for us not doing much more to defeat ISIL and al-Nusra and the like. I hope this meeting as well would allow us to move forward.” (Reurers, 14 November)

Back on the negotiation table, the foreign minsters will tackle their key differences, including the formation of a transition government in Syria, Assad’s role in the transition, if any, and which groups fighting the regime should be included in the transition, and which groups should be excluded as terrorists.

Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif, who did not plan to attend today’s talks, and instead were to accompany President Rouhani on a visit to Rome and Paris, changed his schedule after Rouhani’s visits were postponed after Paris attacks, and has now left Tehran for Vienna to attend the afternoon session of the talks.

Photo: Syria Talks; Vienna, 14 November 2015 (Reuters)

Accepting Assad’s Leadership Role ‘A Non-Starter’ – Kerry

Also Notes Areas of Agreement on Syria

Secretary of State John Kerry said today the U.S. and its allies remain firmly opposed to any role for President Assad in Syria’s future, drawing a sharp line of disagreement with Russia and Iran before Syria talks resumes Saturday in Vienna.

Asking the opposition “to trust Assad or to accept Assad’s leadership is simply not a reasonable request,” Kerry told a gathering at the United States Institute of Peace in Washington. “It is literally, therefore, a non-starter.”

Kerry added that ISIL has a symbiotic relationship with the Assad regime. “They even do business with each other,” Kerry said, “buying and selling oil.” Kerry said Assad and ISIL “are enemies far more in theory than in fact, and neither has shown any interest in bringing the killing to an end.” (Bloomberg, 12 November)

Kerry also listed areas of agreement with Russia and other nations over Syria: Inclusive governance in Syria, free and fair elections, and the need to keep state institutions intact.

In Vienna, Russia will present an eight-point plan calling for creation of a constitutional reform commission made up of opposition and regime figures. There are no provisions in the Russian plan to bar Assad from staying in power or from running in a presidential election that would follow a referendum on a new constitution. That’s what Kerry called “a non-starter.”

Photo credit: Secretary of State John Kerry during an address at USIP; Washington, 12 November 2015 (Mandel NGan/AFP/Getty Images/Bloomber)

Iran Will Oppose Overthrow of Assad - Velayati

Ali Akbar Velayati, senior advisor to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei said today Iran will actively take part in the new round of Syria talks, scheduled for 12 November in Vienna.

Velayati said Iran’s participation in the talks is “by no means tantamount to a retreat from its stance on Syria.” Velayati added that the Syrian government is the “best guardian” of the country, and Iran will “oppose any plan which seeks to overthrow President Assad.” (IRIB/Press TV, 7 November)

File photo: Ali Akbar Velayati, senior advisor to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei (IRNA)

Iran Says It Walks Out of Syria Talks if “Unproductive”

Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian today criticized what he called Saudi Arabia’s “unconstructive role” in recent Syria talks in Vienna, threatening to walk out of the talks should the next meeting be “unproductive.”

“Some countries, particularly Saudi Arabia, played negative and nonconstructive roles (in the recent meeting), as they could not provide a logic for their positions vis-à-vis Syria’s conflict,” Abdollahian said. “If the negotiations will be ‘a show’ and rights of the Syrian people are ignored, Iran will pull out of the talks.” (Xinuha, 2 November)

Following Syria talks on Friday, Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir said the talks should entail a decision on a date and means for the departure of President Bashar al-Assad, as well as the withdrawal of all foreign forces from Syria, including Iran. 

A day later, Jubeir used a high-profile regional security conference in Bahrain to accuse Iran of attempting to smuggle weapons to Bahrain and Saudi Arabia, as well as meddling in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen, Reuters reported.

File photo: Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian (IRNA)

Joint Statement on Syria Talks

The following is the final communiqué issued today by the 19 participants in Syria Talks in Vienna:

"Meeting in Vienna, on October 30, 2015, China, Egypt, the EU, France, Germany, Iran, Iraq, Italy, Jordan, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom, the United Nations, and the United States [“the participants”] came together to discuss the grave situation in Syria and how to bring about an end to the violence as soon as possible.

The participants had a frank and constructive discussion, covering major issues. While substantial differences remain among the participants, they reached a mutual understanding on the following:

1. Syria’s unity, independence, territorial integrity, and secular character are fundamental.
2. State institutions will remain intact.
3. The rights of all Syrians, regardless of ethnicity or religious denomination, must be protected.
4. It is imperative to accelerate all diplomatic efforts to end the war.
5. Humanitarian access will be ensured throughout the territory of Syria, and the participants will increase support for internally displaced persons, refugees, and their host countries. 
6. Da'esh, and other terrorist groups, as designated by the U.N. Security Council, and further, as agreed by the participants, must be defeated.  
7. Pursuant to the 2012 Geneva Communique and U.N. Security Council Resolution 2118, the participants invited the U.N. to convene representatives of the Government of Syria and the Syrian opposition for a political process leading to credible, inclusive, non-sectarian governance, followed by a new constitution and elections.  These elections must be administered under U.N. supervision to the satisfaction of the governance and to the highest international standards of transparency and accountability, free and fair, with all Syrians, including the diaspora, eligible to participate.
8. This political process will be Syrian led and Syrian owned, and the Syrian people will decide the future of Syria.  
9. The participants together with the United Nations will explore modalities for, and implementation of, a nationwide ceasefire to be initiated on a date certain and in parallel with this renewed political process.

The participants will spend the coming days working to narrow remaining areas of disagreement, and build on areas of agreement.  Ministers will reconvene within two weeks to continue these discussions."


Top photo: Syria Talks; Vienna, 30 October 2015 (ndtv)
Bottom photo: Announcing the results of the Syria Talks; from left: Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, UN Special Envoy for Syria Staffan de Mistura, and Secretary of State John Kerry (AFP)

New Syria Talks to Begin on Friday

New international negotiations on Syria start on Friday. Iran and Saudi Arabia announced yesterday they would attend the talks in Vienna. However, neither Assad’s government nor the opposition, the two main parties to the conflict, has been invited to the gathering.

Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif and three of his deputies have arrived Vienna today. Iran says it supports a political solution in Syria, but along with Russia has been the main supporter of Assad. Opposition groups, and their regional backers including Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey, say Assad must leave. Saudi Foreign Minister Abdel al-Jubeir said on Wednesday the intentions of Iran and Russia should be tested during the talks to see if a political solution acceptable to both sides could be reached in Vienna.

The Washington Post reported today that the future of Assad will not be on the table in the first round of meetings of the talks, which will be attended by a dozen countries, including the United States, Russia, Iran, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Egypt, UAE as well as European countries including Britain, France, Germany and Italy.

Not unlike nuclear negotiations between Iran and the P5+1, where Iran-U.S. bilateral talks played the key role in reaching a final agreement, within this expanded Syria talks trilateral negotiations between Russia, the U.S., and Iran, representing the Syrian government, could have the same effect. 

The Syrian civil war, which began more than four years ago, has killed a quarter-million people, contributed to the biggest refugee crisis since World War II, and its ungoverned territories have become the preferred space for the Islamic State and other extremist groups.

Photo credit: Damaged buildings in Maaret al-Numan in Idlib province, Syria; 28 October 2015 (Khalil Ashawi/Reuters)