Addressing a crowd gathered in Birjand, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said today that despite warnings of a military attack, Iran has built 3,000 uranium enrichment centrifuges.
“The nation stood firm, we started with a cascade of 164 centrifuges… They [the West] shouted a bit…They said: Stop at 164. Don’t move forward… At one point messages were being sent to Iran suggesting that 500 or 1,000 targets in Iran would be attacked unless the country stopped its enrichment activities… You [Iranian nation] didn’t pay attention to them. We moved forward. Today, we’ve reached 3,000 machines,” Ahmadinejad said (IRINN, 7 November).
Ahmadinejad is confirming that (A) Iranian leadership has received explicit messages that up to 1,000 targets in Iran will be attacked if the enrichment program continues, and (B) Iran has reached 3,000 centrifuges, in defiance of international demands to halt the enrichment program.
The 3,000 mark is generally considered a milestone for a uranium enrichment program that is past the experimental stage and is capable of producing enriched uranium at industrial scale, enough for producing nuclear weapons if the country chooses to go nuclear.
Ahmadinejad revealed for the first time that he and the Iranian leadership have been warned of a military attack on the country if the enrichment continues. Yet, on the eve of IAEA and EU reports on the country’s compliance with UN resolutions and international demands to halt its enrichment program, Ahmadinejad announces that Iran has reached the milestone needed to produce enough material for nuclear weapons if the country chose that route.
Russian President Vladimir Putin was in Tehran in mid-October and reportedly gave a message to Iran’s supreme leader that if Iran does not halt its enrichment program it will face a military attack by the US and its allies and that Russia can not help Iran if it chooses to continue its program. Ahmadinejad’s reference in his speech to the messages received by Iranian leaders might well be the confirmation of the reports on Putin’s meeting with Khamenei.
Ahmadinejad appears to be willing to accept all consequences, including attacks on some 1,000 targets in Iran. In a highly risky calculation, the government of the Islamic Republic has decided to defy UN Security Council and to challenge President Bush who has repeatedly called for suspension of the enrichment program as a prerequisite for the peaceful resolution of the nuclear standoff. The Iranian leaders apparently believe that the US would not be able to launch an attack on Iran due to problems in Iraq and lack of political support at home.
The problem with their analysis is that the US administration is serious to stop Iran going nuclear. Nuclear weapons controlled by leaders who are on record calling for disappearance of Israel will not be acceptable. President Bush has even warned of a WWIII if Iran goes nuclear. Ahmadinejad’s announcement on 3,000 centrifuges has just made it that much easier for President Bush to open a third front in the Middle East.
If other leaders in Iran disagree with Ahmadinejad, they need to move quickly to avoid a devastating attack on the country.
Wednesday, November 7, 2007
3,000 Centrifuges: Ahmadinejad
Ahmadinejad conferming threats of military attack on Iran and reaching an enrichment milestone
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said today that despite threats of a military attack on Iran, the country has built 3,000 uranium enrichment centrifuges.
“The nation stood firm, we started with a cascade of 164 centrifuges… They [the West] shouted a bit… They said: Stop at 164. Don’t move forward… At one point messages were being sent to Iran suggesting that 500 or 1,000 targets in Iran would be attacked unless the country stopped its enrichment activities… You [Iranian nation] didn’t pay attention to them. We moved forward. Today, we’ve reached 3,000 machines.” (IRINN – Islamic Republic of Iran News Network Television, 7 November)
Ahmadinejad has confirmed two important pieces of information:
- The Iranian leadership has received explicit messages that up to 1,000 targets in Iran will be attacked if the enrichment program continues.
- Iran has reached 3,000 centrifuges, in defiance of international demands to halt the enrichment program.
Tuesday, November 6, 2007
News from Iran
The war rhetoric between US and Iran dominated the coverage in the Iranian media. US Vice President Dick Cheney warned of the need for a military solution in Iran. The influential former president Hashemi Rafsanjani warned Iran of “unprecedented” US threats, and the commander of Iranian Army warned his force will scare US forces away from Iranian soil. On nuclear front, Iran insisted to continue its uranium enrichment program despite threats of a third round of UN sanctions against the country. On regional issues, Iranian media voiced displeasure and concern over Musharaf’s declaration of emergency rule in Pakistan. The moderate press blasted Musharaf for imprisoning lawyers and human rights activists while the conservative press attacked him for his anti-Islamist move. On Palestinian issue, Iran once again asked the Arab countries to boycott the Annapolis conference. The conservative press saw Annapolis gathering as an appeasement by US to Arabs to get their support against Iran.
US-Iran War Rhetoric
· US Vice President Dick Cheney said peaceful measures to stop Iran nuclear program has not worked; Cheney added US may resort to military solution in Iran.
· Former Iranian President Ayatollah Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani warned Iran of “unprecedented” US threats; Rafsanjani said US forces are creating a climate of fear; the Chairman of Assembly of Experts said everyone must be alert.
· Boeing is manufacturing Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) weapons for attack on Iran; the 30,000-lb conventional bomb is designed to penetrate and destroy deep and hardened bunkers; US Air Force is modifying its B2 Spirit stealth bombers to carry MOP weapons; it is expected that by Spring 2008, MOP weapons would be ready to be carried by the B2 bombers.
· Commander of Iranian Army Maj. Gen. Ataollah Salehi warned Iranian army will scare US forces away from Iranian soil; Gen. Salehi said Iran’s military's preparedness is at highest level.
· US Vice President Dick Cheney accused Iran of supporting insurgents in Iraq.
· US Naval Forces Central Command (NAVCENT) and US Fifth Fleet based in Bahrain conducted large maneuvers in the Persian Gulf; an aircraft carrier group and additional expeditionary assault ships took part in the 5-day exercises.
· The Jerusalem Post and Al Jazeera quoting Arab and Israeli sources said the 6 September air strike over Syria was actually carried out by two US strategic bombers; Israeli F-15 and F-16 providing air cover for the US bombers; on 13 October, The New York Times reported that the Syrian nuclear facility under construction was hit by Israeli planes; the air strike over Syria heightened concerns in Tehran over the viability of Iran’s radar and air defense systems; Iran deploys similar Russian-built radar and air defense systems rendered ineffective by high-tech electronics measures used by the US and Israeli air forces.
The Nuclear Issue
· Deputy Director of Iran's Supreme National Security Council Javad Vaeedi said iran would not accept any proposal that demands a halt of its uranium enrichment.
· Iran’s Interior Minister Mostafa Pourmohammadi said Iran is determined to gain its nuclear rights despite US opposition; Pourmohammadi said Iran has shown it is capable to withstand sanctions.
· US Undersecretary of State Nicholas Burns warned Iran of new UN sanctions if it continued its uranium enrichment activities; Burns said there's going to be a price to what Iran does; Burns added US hopes Iran will reconsider, suspend its enrichment program and come to negotiations with the United States and with the other countries.
· Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini said Iran offer of joint international consortium for uranium enrichment inside Iran still stands; commenting on a proposed Saudi-Russia enrichment plant, Hosseini said Iran welcomes the proposal as long as it is allowed to keep its own uranium enrichment program.
· Bahrain’s crown prince Sheikh Salman bin Hamad Al Khalifa claimed Iran is developing atomic weapons; Sheikh Salman urged a diplomatic solution to Iranian nuclear standoff.
Major Regional Storylines
· Pakistan imposed “state of emergency” throughout the country; moderate newspapers called the action a “second coup” by Mosharaf; moderates voiced opposition to numerous arrests and closure of independent media; conservative newspapers opposed the declaration of state of emergency as a plot against the Islamists.
· Iraq's Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) cut off aid to PKK terrorists; KRG shut of PKK offices; Turkey massed up to 100,000 troops along the mountainous border with Iraq in preparations for a cross-border operation to crush PKK rebels; Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad voiced Iranian support for Turkey in its struggle against PKK; Iran cautioned all sides to find a political and diplomatic solution to PKK problem.
· At Istanbul conference on Iraqi security, Iran proposed withdrawal of US and coalition forces from Iraq; Iran proposed establishment of a regional peace force to maintain security after the withdrawal (3); Iran volunteered its troops to participate in Iraqi peace force.
· Iran called Annapolis conference a US-Zionist plot to divert Arab attention from real issues in the region; Iranian government asked all Arab countries to boycott Annapolis; some commentators said the conference was to appease Arabs and turn them against Iran.
· Hamas leader Khaled Mashaal said Middle East summit is a distraction for an attack on Iran; Mashaal said US is distracting Arabs with a false conference while preparing itself for real game.
· Iran's Ambassador to UN Mohammad Khazaee voiced concern over security situation in Afghanistan; Khazaee also warned of growing threat of opium production in and drug trafficking from the country.
Major Domestic Storylines
· US military announced it will free nine Iranian nationals detained in Iraq; five of the nine were Iranian diplomats detained by US troopers during a raid in Erbil last January.
· The World Bank halted aid programs to Iran; scheduled payments to Iran were suspended in response to new US sanctions against Iranian banks.
· An appeal court confirmed a 2.5 year sentence against Delaram Ali, one of the leaders of Iran’s women’s equal rights movement; Ali was arrested in June 2006 for participating in a women’s rights demonstration.
· Ali Azizi, the leader of Unity Consolidation Bureau, the largest Islamic student association, was arrested; students at University of Tehran held protest against the visiting president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad last month.
US-Iran War Rhetoric
· US Vice President Dick Cheney said peaceful measures to stop Iran nuclear program has not worked; Cheney added US may resort to military solution in Iran.
· Former Iranian President Ayatollah Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani warned Iran of “unprecedented” US threats; Rafsanjani said US forces are creating a climate of fear; the Chairman of Assembly of Experts said everyone must be alert.
· Boeing is manufacturing Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) weapons for attack on Iran; the 30,000-lb conventional bomb is designed to penetrate and destroy deep and hardened bunkers; US Air Force is modifying its B2 Spirit stealth bombers to carry MOP weapons; it is expected that by Spring 2008, MOP weapons would be ready to be carried by the B2 bombers.
· Commander of Iranian Army Maj. Gen. Ataollah Salehi warned Iranian army will scare US forces away from Iranian soil; Gen. Salehi said Iran’s military's preparedness is at highest level.
· US Vice President Dick Cheney accused Iran of supporting insurgents in Iraq.
· US Naval Forces Central Command (NAVCENT) and US Fifth Fleet based in Bahrain conducted large maneuvers in the Persian Gulf; an aircraft carrier group and additional expeditionary assault ships took part in the 5-day exercises.
· The Jerusalem Post and Al Jazeera quoting Arab and Israeli sources said the 6 September air strike over Syria was actually carried out by two US strategic bombers; Israeli F-15 and F-16 providing air cover for the US bombers; on 13 October, The New York Times reported that the Syrian nuclear facility under construction was hit by Israeli planes; the air strike over Syria heightened concerns in Tehran over the viability of Iran’s radar and air defense systems; Iran deploys similar Russian-built radar and air defense systems rendered ineffective by high-tech electronics measures used by the US and Israeli air forces.
The Nuclear Issue
· Deputy Director of Iran's Supreme National Security Council Javad Vaeedi said iran would not accept any proposal that demands a halt of its uranium enrichment.
· Iran’s Interior Minister Mostafa Pourmohammadi said Iran is determined to gain its nuclear rights despite US opposition; Pourmohammadi said Iran has shown it is capable to withstand sanctions.
· US Undersecretary of State Nicholas Burns warned Iran of new UN sanctions if it continued its uranium enrichment activities; Burns said there's going to be a price to what Iran does; Burns added US hopes Iran will reconsider, suspend its enrichment program and come to negotiations with the United States and with the other countries.
· Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini said Iran offer of joint international consortium for uranium enrichment inside Iran still stands; commenting on a proposed Saudi-Russia enrichment plant, Hosseini said Iran welcomes the proposal as long as it is allowed to keep its own uranium enrichment program.
· Bahrain’s crown prince Sheikh Salman bin Hamad Al Khalifa claimed Iran is developing atomic weapons; Sheikh Salman urged a diplomatic solution to Iranian nuclear standoff.
Major Regional Storylines
· Pakistan imposed “state of emergency” throughout the country; moderate newspapers called the action a “second coup” by Mosharaf; moderates voiced opposition to numerous arrests and closure of independent media; conservative newspapers opposed the declaration of state of emergency as a plot against the Islamists.
· Iraq's Kurdish Regional Government (KRG) cut off aid to PKK terrorists; KRG shut of PKK offices; Turkey massed up to 100,000 troops along the mountainous border with Iraq in preparations for a cross-border operation to crush PKK rebels; Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad voiced Iranian support for Turkey in its struggle against PKK; Iran cautioned all sides to find a political and diplomatic solution to PKK problem.
· At Istanbul conference on Iraqi security, Iran proposed withdrawal of US and coalition forces from Iraq; Iran proposed establishment of a regional peace force to maintain security after the withdrawal (3); Iran volunteered its troops to participate in Iraqi peace force.
· Iran called Annapolis conference a US-Zionist plot to divert Arab attention from real issues in the region; Iranian government asked all Arab countries to boycott Annapolis; some commentators said the conference was to appease Arabs and turn them against Iran.
· Hamas leader Khaled Mashaal said Middle East summit is a distraction for an attack on Iran; Mashaal said US is distracting Arabs with a false conference while preparing itself for real game.
· Iran's Ambassador to UN Mohammad Khazaee voiced concern over security situation in Afghanistan; Khazaee also warned of growing threat of opium production in and drug trafficking from the country.
Major Domestic Storylines
· US military announced it will free nine Iranian nationals detained in Iraq; five of the nine were Iranian diplomats detained by US troopers during a raid in Erbil last January.
· The World Bank halted aid programs to Iran; scheduled payments to Iran were suspended in response to new US sanctions against Iranian banks.
· An appeal court confirmed a 2.5 year sentence against Delaram Ali, one of the leaders of Iran’s women’s equal rights movement; Ali was arrested in June 2006 for participating in a women’s rights demonstration.
· Ali Azizi, the leader of Unity Consolidation Bureau, the largest Islamic student association, was arrested; students at University of Tehran held protest against the visiting president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad last month.
Israel Warns of Iran Nuke
Israeli Maj. Gen. Yossi Baidatz, director of research at Israeli military intelligence, told Knesset Iran was getting steadily closer to developing a nuclear weapon. Gen. Baidatz added that if Iran is not stopped, it could have a nuclear weapon by the end of 2009, AP reported today.
Israel has mounted a diplomatic offensive to try to build international support for tougher UN sanctions aimed at pressuring Iran to abandon its nuclear program.
Israel has mounted a diplomatic offensive to try to build international support for tougher UN sanctions aimed at pressuring Iran to abandon its nuclear program.
US Military Will Free Iranian Detainees
The US military in Iraq said today that it will free nine Iranians detained in Iraq. They include the five officials detained during a raid in Erbil last January.
US Rear Admiral Gregory Smith said the nine individuals have no “continuing value” for US military.
It is not known whether Mahmoud Farhadi who was detained last September in Sulaymaniyah will be among the nine. US military has accused Farhadi of being a high ranking IRGC-Quds Force officer involved in smuggling explosives into Iraq.
US Rear Admiral Gregory Smith said the nine individuals have no “continuing value” for US military.
It is not known whether Mahmoud Farhadi who was detained last September in Sulaymaniyah will be among the nine. US military has accused Farhadi of being a high ranking IRGC-Quds Force officer involved in smuggling explosives into Iraq.
Monday, November 5, 2007
More on MOP Development
Is Iran the target?
Boeing is manufacturing Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) weapons. The 30,000-lb conventional bomb is designed to penetrate and destroy deep and hardened bunkers. The US Air Force is modifying its B2 Spirit stealth bombers to carry two MOP weapons each.
MOP is equipped with GPS navigation system. It is more than 20 ft long and has more than 10 times the explosive power of the largest bunker buster already in service.
It is expected that by Spring 2008, MOP weapons would be ready to be carried by the B2 bombers.
MOP will be used in any bombing campaign of nuclear and missile sites in Iran if the administration exercises the military option.
Boeing is manufacturing Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) weapons. The 30,000-lb conventional bomb is designed to penetrate and destroy deep and hardened bunkers. The US Air Force is modifying its B2 Spirit stealth bombers to carry two MOP weapons each.
MOP is equipped with GPS navigation system. It is more than 20 ft long and has more than 10 times the explosive power of the largest bunker buster already in service.
It is expected that by Spring 2008, MOP weapons would be ready to be carried by the B2 bombers.
MOP will be used in any bombing campaign of nuclear and missile sites in Iran if the administration exercises the military option.
Delaram Ali is Sentenced to 2.5 Years
Delaram Ali Delaram Ali, one of the leaders of Iran’s women’s equal rights movement, was sentenced to 28 months in prison for participating in Haft-e Tir demonstrations on June 12, 2006. The protest in support of women’s rights was violently broken up by the police. Delaram was beaten severely during the attack, dragged on the ground by several police officers and subsequently arrested. Delaram was convicted by a lower court in May 2007 and the sentence was upheld by a court of appeal on Sunday.
Iranian women’s rights defenders appeal to the national and international community to take swift action condemning the unjust ruling of the court in the case of Delaram Ali.
Please check the Change for Equality website at http://www.we4change.info/english/ for latest developments considering Delaram and other women activists under arrest.
Iranian women’s rights defenders appeal to the national and international community to take swift action condemning the unjust ruling of the court in the case of Delaram Ali.
Please check the Change for Equality website at http://www.we4change.info/english/ for latest developments considering Delaram and other women activists under arrest.
Saturday, November 3, 2007
US Involvement in Attack on Syria
The Jerusalem Post and Al Jazeera quoting Arab and Israeli sources say the 6 September air strike over Syria was actually carried out by two US strategic bombers, with Israeli F-15 and F-16 providing air cover for the US bombers.
The Syrian target was reportedly a nuclear site under construction. The sources add that each US plane carried a tactical nuclear weapon and that the site was hit and was totally destroyed by a single bomb dropped from one of the planes.
On 13 October, The New York Times reported that the Syrian nuclear facility under construction was hit by Israeli planes.
The air strike over Syria heightened concerns in Tehran over the viability of Iran’s radar and air defense systems. Iran deploys very similar Russian-built radar and air defense systems which were rendered ineffective by high-tech electronics measures used by the US and Israeli air forces during their attack on the Syrian nuclear site.
The Syrian target was reportedly a nuclear site under construction. The sources add that each US plane carried a tactical nuclear weapon and that the site was hit and was totally destroyed by a single bomb dropped from one of the planes.
On 13 October, The New York Times reported that the Syrian nuclear facility under construction was hit by Israeli planes.
The air strike over Syria heightened concerns in Tehran over the viability of Iran’s radar and air defense systems. Iran deploys very similar Russian-built radar and air defense systems which were rendered ineffective by high-tech electronics measures used by the US and Israeli air forces during their attack on the Syrian nuclear site.
US Naval Maneuvers in Persian Gulf
US Naval Forces Central Command (NAVCENT) and US Fifth Fleet based in Bahrain are conducting a series of maneuvers in the Persian Gulf. An aircraft carrier group and additional expeditionary assault ships are taking part in the 5-day exercises which would end Monday.
Thursday, November 1, 2007
Preparing the Public for War
Iranian political leaders and military commanders are increasingly warning the nation of an upcoming war with the US. Ayatollah Hashemi Rafsanjani today warned Iran of “unprecedented” US threats.
“The movements and the presence of US forces and their supporters in the region are unprecedented, as is the creation of a menacing climate of fear," Rafsanjani told military commanders in Tehran (IRNA, 1 November).
Iran’s President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, referring to US threats, said yesterday millions of Iranians are ready to sacrifice themselves fighting the country's enemies (IRNA, 31 October).
The Iranian military is reporting a substantial increase in the number of US sorties over the Iranian border in recent days. On Monday, Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini said the US sorties run counter to international rules and warned that the Iranian military would give a crushing response if the country’s territorial integrity is violated.
Islamic Revolution Guards Corp (IRGC) Commander Maj. Gen. Mohammad Ali Jafari warned that the United States would find itself in a quagmire deeper than Iraq if it attacked the Islamic Republic (IRNA, 30 October). The Deputy Commander of IRGC Naval Force, Brig. Gen. Ali Fahdavi, warned the US of IRGC’s ability to disrupt oil flows in the Persian Gulf and the narrow Strait of Hurmuz, “The area of Persian Gulf and strategic Strait of Hormuz is such that a small operation can have a big outcome” (Fars News Agency, 29 October).
The recent warning by Iranian leaders, and especially by the political leadership, of an impending war with the US is a new development. The political leaders, including Ahmadinejad, had been insisting that the US would not attack Iran. Ahmadinejad famously said in September that his mathematical calculations based on his skills as an engineer proved that US forces would not launch an attack.
The Iranian leaders are now taking the attack seriously. Many Iran analysts believe that when Russian President Vladimir Putin’s met Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Tehran recently, he gave the supreme leader a message that the US attack on Iran is imminent unless the Iranians retreat on the nuclear front. Putin reportedly wanted Iran to immediately suspend its uranium enrichment activities. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov made a surprise visit to Tehran on Tuesday to bring home to Ahmadinejad the reality that if Iran fails to comply with the UN Security Council demand to stop uranium enrichment by the end of November, Moscow will have no grounds for protecting it.
A major power struggle is underway in Tehran on how to deal with the realities of a US attack if Iran does not suspend its uranium enrichment program. The day after Putin left Tehran, the IRGC commanders threatened to fire 11,000 missiles at US targets in the region if Iran is attacked. Their warning was seen by Iran analysts as a direct response to the message carried by the Russian president. Ahmadinejad and the hardliners were in no mood to compromise. Ali Larijani, the chief nuclear negotiator and the number three politician in Tehran, resigned in disagreement.
Rafsanjani and the traditional conservatives are open to a limited compromise on nuclear front, like suspending the enrichment for a year or two, to avoid a military conflict and the possibility of a regime collapse in its aftermath. The reformists, out of the government and now acting as loyal opposition, decried Ahmadinejad’s nuclear policies in the recent Mosharekat party congress and warned of a military attack if compromises are not accepted. Khamemei, the supreme leader, has generally sided with the hardliners.
The attempt by the government to prepare the public for war points to a hardening of positions over the nuclear program and US-Iran relations. It does not bode well for peace in the region.
“The movements and the presence of US forces and their supporters in the region are unprecedented, as is the creation of a menacing climate of fear," Rafsanjani told military commanders in Tehran (IRNA, 1 November).
Iran’s President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, referring to US threats, said yesterday millions of Iranians are ready to sacrifice themselves fighting the country's enemies (IRNA, 31 October).
The Iranian military is reporting a substantial increase in the number of US sorties over the Iranian border in recent days. On Monday, Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini said the US sorties run counter to international rules and warned that the Iranian military would give a crushing response if the country’s territorial integrity is violated.
Islamic Revolution Guards Corp (IRGC) Commander Maj. Gen. Mohammad Ali Jafari warned that the United States would find itself in a quagmire deeper than Iraq if it attacked the Islamic Republic (IRNA, 30 October). The Deputy Commander of IRGC Naval Force, Brig. Gen. Ali Fahdavi, warned the US of IRGC’s ability to disrupt oil flows in the Persian Gulf and the narrow Strait of Hurmuz, “The area of Persian Gulf and strategic Strait of Hormuz is such that a small operation can have a big outcome” (Fars News Agency, 29 October).
The recent warning by Iranian leaders, and especially by the political leadership, of an impending war with the US is a new development. The political leaders, including Ahmadinejad, had been insisting that the US would not attack Iran. Ahmadinejad famously said in September that his mathematical calculations based on his skills as an engineer proved that US forces would not launch an attack.
The Iranian leaders are now taking the attack seriously. Many Iran analysts believe that when Russian President Vladimir Putin’s met Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in Tehran recently, he gave the supreme leader a message that the US attack on Iran is imminent unless the Iranians retreat on the nuclear front. Putin reportedly wanted Iran to immediately suspend its uranium enrichment activities. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov made a surprise visit to Tehran on Tuesday to bring home to Ahmadinejad the reality that if Iran fails to comply with the UN Security Council demand to stop uranium enrichment by the end of November, Moscow will have no grounds for protecting it.
A major power struggle is underway in Tehran on how to deal with the realities of a US attack if Iran does not suspend its uranium enrichment program. The day after Putin left Tehran, the IRGC commanders threatened to fire 11,000 missiles at US targets in the region if Iran is attacked. Their warning was seen by Iran analysts as a direct response to the message carried by the Russian president. Ahmadinejad and the hardliners were in no mood to compromise. Ali Larijani, the chief nuclear negotiator and the number three politician in Tehran, resigned in disagreement.
Rafsanjani and the traditional conservatives are open to a limited compromise on nuclear front, like suspending the enrichment for a year or two, to avoid a military conflict and the possibility of a regime collapse in its aftermath. The reformists, out of the government and now acting as loyal opposition, decried Ahmadinejad’s nuclear policies in the recent Mosharekat party congress and warned of a military attack if compromises are not accepted. Khamemei, the supreme leader, has generally sided with the hardliners.
The attempt by the government to prepare the public for war points to a hardening of positions over the nuclear program and US-Iran relations. It does not bode well for peace in the region.
Wednesday, October 31, 2007
IRGC Warns of Prolonged War
IRGC Commander Maj. Gen. Mohammad Ali Jafari today warned US it would find itself in a “quagmire” deeper than Iraq if it attacked the Islamic Republic. Gen. Jafari told a military parade in Tehran that if the US attacks Iran, they will have to withdraw with defeat (IRNA, 31 October).
In the past few days, the Iranian military and political leaders have increasingly been warning of a US military attack on Iran. Foreign ministry spokesman made similar remarks as the IRGC commander during a news conference in Tehran.
Meanwhile, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov held talks with Iran’s President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki on Tuesday in Tehran. Lavrov told reporters after the meeting that he encouraged Iranian leaders to undertake more active cooperation with IAEA to clear up questions on Iran’s nuclear program.
Lavrov's visit coincided with talks in Tehran between officials from Iran and the IAEA. The IAEA Chief Mohammad ElBaradei will make an all-important report on Iran’s nuclear program in mid-November. ElBaradei report will weigh heavily on any future UN sanctions against Iran.
In the past few days, the Iranian military and political leaders have increasingly been warning of a US military attack on Iran. Foreign ministry spokesman made similar remarks as the IRGC commander during a news conference in Tehran.
Meanwhile, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov held talks with Iran’s President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki on Tuesday in Tehran. Lavrov told reporters after the meeting that he encouraged Iranian leaders to undertake more active cooperation with IAEA to clear up questions on Iran’s nuclear program.
Lavrov's visit coincided with talks in Tehran between officials from Iran and the IAEA. The IAEA Chief Mohammad ElBaradei will make an all-important report on Iran’s nuclear program in mid-November. ElBaradei report will weigh heavily on any future UN sanctions against Iran.
Tuesday, October 30, 2007
News from Iran
US sanctions against Islamic Revolution Guards Corp (IRGC) and its Quds Force and the possibility of a US military attack on Iran dominated the coverage in the local media. Iranian military reports indicated a large number of US Air Force sorties over the Iranian borders and IRGC commanders warned of a decisive strike against US if Iran is attacked. The Iranian political leadership also began warning of a possible US attack on Iran and vowing to fight the invaders. On nuclear issue, Iran said it will answer all IAEA questions to send its nuclear file from UN Security Council back to its nuclear watchdog agency, thus avoiding further UN sanctions. In regional issues, Iran announced its readiness to cooperate with Turkey against PKK, but at the same time expressed hope for a political settlement of the conflict.
Iran-US Relations
· White House spokeswoman Dana Perino said “there is no reason for people to think that the president is about to attack Iran”; Perini said US is pursuing a diplomatic track to resolve the standoff with Iran.
· US Air Force is conducting an increasing number of sorties over Iranian borders; Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini said US sorties run counter to international rules and regulations; Hosseini warned that Iran would give a crushing response if its territorial integrity is violated; Hossieni warned of a possible military attack on Iran; Hosseini said Iranian military will give firm response to invaders.
· IRGC Commander Maj. Gen. Ali Jafari said IRGC would response with decisiveness if attacked; Gen. Jafari said IRGC will reply to any strike with an even more decisive strike.
· Iran’s Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki said US is trying to create new problems for Iran; he warned US against any military attack on Iran.
· US Vice President Dick Cheney warned foreign companies that continued business with Iran would disrupt their ties to US; Vice President Cheney said “if you do business with Iran, you will have problems doing business in the US.”
· Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said US decision to cut off financial relations with Iranian banks is meaningless; he said Iran demands 100 percent of its nuclear rights and US is obliged to accept this right.
The Nuclear Issue
· US government designated Iran’s Islamic Revolution Guards Corp (IRGC) as a proliferator of WMD; US named IRGC’s Quds Force as a supporter of terrorism; US sanctioned three major Iranian banks for their involvement in WMD proliferation and support for terrorism; eight individuals were also sanctioned for proliferation activities.
· Iran’s Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki called US imposition of new sanctions against “international principles”; Mottaki said the sanctions are “worthless and defeated”; former IRGC Commander Maj. Gen. Yahya Safavi said US unilateral policies against Iran are spearheaded by global oil cartels.
· Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said Iran would not succumb to pressure from Washington; Ahmadinejad dismissed new US sanctions as “hollow”; he added the sanctions show the “Americans are not able to harm us.”
· IAEA Chief Mohamed ElBaradei said Iran was years away from having the ability to produce a nuclear weapon; ElBaradei said the IAEA had no evidence Iran was actively trying to build a nuclear bomb.
· French Defense Minister Herve Morin said he did not agree with ElBaradei’s characterization of Iran's nuclear program; Morin said “our information is contrary to ElBaradei’s comments”; Morin expressed hope the pressure from international community will persuade Iran to suspend its uranium enrichment program.
· Russian President Vladimir Putin warned against US sanctions on Iran; Putin said US President is “running around like a madman with a razor blade, waving it around”; Putin said diplomacy is best way to resolve nuclear standoff with Iran.
· China rejected Israeli calls for sanctions against Iran; Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao told visiting Israeli Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Tzipi Livni that China does not support new sanctions against Iran.
· Iran and IAEA began a final round of talks in Teheran to resolve remaining questions on Iran’s P-1 and P-2 centrifuges; Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization Deputy Director Mohammad Saeedi said Iran was prepared to answer remaining questions to close the file on its centrifuge technology.
· Iran’s nuclear negotiating team returned home after meeting with EU officials in Italy; Saeed Jalili and Ali Larijani met EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana in Rome; Larijani called the meeting “fruitful”; Larijani said “new and constructive” ideas emerged in talks.
· Australian Foreign Minister Alexander Downer said his country will follow US sanctions against Iran; Downer said if Iran’s enrichment program isn't suspended some time fairly soon, a lot of countries will introduce different types of measures and sanctions against Iran.
Leading Domestic Storylines
· Brig. Gen. Ali Fahdavi, Deputy Commander of IRGC Naval Force, said Iran will utilize elements of sacrifice and martyrdom if necessary against invaders; he said IRGC has taken an example from Mohammad Hossein Fahmideh; Fahmideh blew himself under an Iraqi tank when he was 13 during the eight-year war between Iran and Iraq.
· Iran’s reformist party Moshrekat challenged President ahmadinejad’s nuclear policies; the Islamic Iran Participation Front (Mosharekat) warned of escalating crisis with international community if nuclear standoff is not resolved; the government should refrain from its adventurous policies, said Mohsen Mirdamadi, party’s secretary general; Mirdamadi said Tehran has increasingly become isolated since Ahmadinejad came to power in 2005; Ahmadinejad has adopted wrong tactics, which is pushing Iran towards serious confrontation with the world, Mirdamadi added.
· Iranian labor leader Mansour Ossanlou was sentenced to five years in prison; Ossanlou was arrested in August and charged with endangering national security.
Leading Regional Storylines
· Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov arrived in Tehran for a meeting with Iran’s President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki; the two sides discussed Iran’s nuclear program.
· Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said was ready to cooperate with Turkey against PKK; Ahmadinejad told visiting Turkish Foreign Minister Ali Babacan Iran understands Turkey’s struggle against terrorism; Iran’s Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki accused US of backing Kurdish separatists waging war against Turkey and Iran; Ahmadinejad said PKK crisis can be ended peacefully.
· Saudi Crown Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz said three Iranian islands of Abu Musa and Greater and Lesser Tumbs are Arab; Sultan said it is not in Iran’s interest to provoke anyone in the region.
Iran-US Relations
· White House spokeswoman Dana Perino said “there is no reason for people to think that the president is about to attack Iran”; Perini said US is pursuing a diplomatic track to resolve the standoff with Iran.
· US Air Force is conducting an increasing number of sorties over Iranian borders; Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini said US sorties run counter to international rules and regulations; Hosseini warned that Iran would give a crushing response if its territorial integrity is violated; Hossieni warned of a possible military attack on Iran; Hosseini said Iranian military will give firm response to invaders.
· IRGC Commander Maj. Gen. Ali Jafari said IRGC would response with decisiveness if attacked; Gen. Jafari said IRGC will reply to any strike with an even more decisive strike.
· Iran’s Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki said US is trying to create new problems for Iran; he warned US against any military attack on Iran.
· US Vice President Dick Cheney warned foreign companies that continued business with Iran would disrupt their ties to US; Vice President Cheney said “if you do business with Iran, you will have problems doing business in the US.”
· Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said US decision to cut off financial relations with Iranian banks is meaningless; he said Iran demands 100 percent of its nuclear rights and US is obliged to accept this right.
The Nuclear Issue
· US government designated Iran’s Islamic Revolution Guards Corp (IRGC) as a proliferator of WMD; US named IRGC’s Quds Force as a supporter of terrorism; US sanctioned three major Iranian banks for their involvement in WMD proliferation and support for terrorism; eight individuals were also sanctioned for proliferation activities.
· Iran’s Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki called US imposition of new sanctions against “international principles”; Mottaki said the sanctions are “worthless and defeated”; former IRGC Commander Maj. Gen. Yahya Safavi said US unilateral policies against Iran are spearheaded by global oil cartels.
· Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said Iran would not succumb to pressure from Washington; Ahmadinejad dismissed new US sanctions as “hollow”; he added the sanctions show the “Americans are not able to harm us.”
· IAEA Chief Mohamed ElBaradei said Iran was years away from having the ability to produce a nuclear weapon; ElBaradei said the IAEA had no evidence Iran was actively trying to build a nuclear bomb.
· French Defense Minister Herve Morin said he did not agree with ElBaradei’s characterization of Iran's nuclear program; Morin said “our information is contrary to ElBaradei’s comments”; Morin expressed hope the pressure from international community will persuade Iran to suspend its uranium enrichment program.
· Russian President Vladimir Putin warned against US sanctions on Iran; Putin said US President is “running around like a madman with a razor blade, waving it around”; Putin said diplomacy is best way to resolve nuclear standoff with Iran.
· China rejected Israeli calls for sanctions against Iran; Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao told visiting Israeli Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Foreign Affairs Tzipi Livni that China does not support new sanctions against Iran.
· Iran and IAEA began a final round of talks in Teheran to resolve remaining questions on Iran’s P-1 and P-2 centrifuges; Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization Deputy Director Mohammad Saeedi said Iran was prepared to answer remaining questions to close the file on its centrifuge technology.
· Iran’s nuclear negotiating team returned home after meeting with EU officials in Italy; Saeed Jalili and Ali Larijani met EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana in Rome; Larijani called the meeting “fruitful”; Larijani said “new and constructive” ideas emerged in talks.
· Australian Foreign Minister Alexander Downer said his country will follow US sanctions against Iran; Downer said if Iran’s enrichment program isn't suspended some time fairly soon, a lot of countries will introduce different types of measures and sanctions against Iran.
Leading Domestic Storylines
· Brig. Gen. Ali Fahdavi, Deputy Commander of IRGC Naval Force, said Iran will utilize elements of sacrifice and martyrdom if necessary against invaders; he said IRGC has taken an example from Mohammad Hossein Fahmideh; Fahmideh blew himself under an Iraqi tank when he was 13 during the eight-year war between Iran and Iraq.
· Iran’s reformist party Moshrekat challenged President ahmadinejad’s nuclear policies; the Islamic Iran Participation Front (Mosharekat) warned of escalating crisis with international community if nuclear standoff is not resolved; the government should refrain from its adventurous policies, said Mohsen Mirdamadi, party’s secretary general; Mirdamadi said Tehran has increasingly become isolated since Ahmadinejad came to power in 2005; Ahmadinejad has adopted wrong tactics, which is pushing Iran towards serious confrontation with the world, Mirdamadi added.
· Iranian labor leader Mansour Ossanlou was sentenced to five years in prison; Ossanlou was arrested in August and charged with endangering national security.
Leading Regional Storylines
· Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov arrived in Tehran for a meeting with Iran’s President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki; the two sides discussed Iran’s nuclear program.
· Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said was ready to cooperate with Turkey against PKK; Ahmadinejad told visiting Turkish Foreign Minister Ali Babacan Iran understands Turkey’s struggle against terrorism; Iran’s Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki accused US of backing Kurdish separatists waging war against Turkey and Iran; Ahmadinejad said PKK crisis can be ended peacefully.
· Saudi Crown Prince Sultan bin Abdul Aziz said three Iranian islands of Abu Musa and Greater and Lesser Tumbs are Arab; Sultan said it is not in Iran’s interest to provoke anyone in the region.
White House Denies It Plans to Attack Iran Anytime Soon
White House spokeswoman Dana Perino said today that “there is no reason for people to think that the president is about to attack Iran” (AP, 30 October).
Perino made the comment amid rising tensions between US and Iran and clear signs of military preparations to attack Iran.
Perino made the comment amid rising tensions between US and Iran and clear signs of military preparations to attack Iran.
Russian FM in Tehran
Sergei Lavrov, the Russian Foreign Minister, will arrive today in Tehran on a previously unannounced visit. Lavraov will meet Iran’s president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad at 7:30pm local time. He is scheduled to leave Tehran for Moscow later tonight.
Lavrov accompanied President Putin during his recent visit to Tehran. His unexpected visit today is believed to be linked to Larijani’s resignation and the future of Iran’s nuclear program.
Lavrov accompanied President Putin during his recent visit to Tehran. His unexpected visit today is believed to be linked to Larijani’s resignation and the future of Iran’s nuclear program.
Ossanlou’s Five-Year Jail Term
The five-year jail term for the Iranian labor leader Mansour Ossanlou was upheld today and Ossanlou was transferred to the general ward of Evin prison.
Mansour Ossanlou, 48, was Iran’s bus drivers’ union leader. He was active in promoting better working conditions and increased wages for Iranian bus drivers. Ossanlou, referred to as Iran’s Lech Walesa, was arrested and jailed last August in Tehran
Mansour Ossanlou, 48, was Iran’s bus drivers’ union leader. He was active in promoting better working conditions and increased wages for Iranian bus drivers. Ossanlou, referred to as Iran’s Lech Walesa, was arrested and jailed last August in Tehran
Monday, October 29, 2007
Iran Oil Revenues Hit All-Time High
Iranian crude oil export revenues in the past six months surpassed $30 billion, the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) reported today. The record-revenue trend is expected to continue for the next six months. The calculations are based on Iranian calendar year ending March 20, 2008.
Last year, crude export revenue for the entire Iranian calendar year was at $51 billion.
NIOC also expects to realize more than $70 billion in the next six months in combined revenues from the export of crude oil and oil products. This is by far Iran's most positive cash flow situation ever.
Last year, crude export revenue for the entire Iranian calendar year was at $51 billion.
NIOC also expects to realize more than $70 billion in the next six months in combined revenues from the export of crude oil and oil products. This is by far Iran's most positive cash flow situation ever.
US Upgrading Diego Garcia Facilities
The British paper The Herald reported today that the US is upgrading B1 Spirit stealth bomber hangars on the British island of Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean in preparation for strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities.
The B1 stealth bombers were in the news lately after the White House sent an “urgent operational need” request to Congress to fit racks on the long-range aircraft allowing them to carry 15-ton Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) bombs, known as Big Blue, designed to smash underground bunkers buried as much as 200ft beneath the surface through reinforced concrete, as the underground facilities at Natanz uranium enrichment plant in Iran. The new Big Blu bomb is 20ft long, weighs 30,000lb and carries 6000lb of high explosives.
Iran analysts believe that the preparation for a US military attack on Iran is now at an operational planning phase, making the likelihood of the attack very high. The Pentagon is reportedly drawing up plans for a range of attacks on Iran, including bombardment of nuclear facilities, air bases and radar facilities, and IRGC targets.
The B1 stealth bombers were in the news lately after the White House sent an “urgent operational need” request to Congress to fit racks on the long-range aircraft allowing them to carry 15-ton Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) bombs, known as Big Blue, designed to smash underground bunkers buried as much as 200ft beneath the surface through reinforced concrete, as the underground facilities at Natanz uranium enrichment plant in Iran. The new Big Blu bomb is 20ft long, weighs 30,000lb and carries 6000lb of high explosives.
Iran analysts believe that the preparation for a US military attack on Iran is now at an operational planning phase, making the likelihood of the attack very high. The Pentagon is reportedly drawing up plans for a range of attacks on Iran, including bombardment of nuclear facilities, air bases and radar facilities, and IRGC targets.
Sunday, October 28, 2007
US Air Force Sorties over Iran Borders
The Iranian military is reporting a substantial increase in the number of US sorties over the Iranian border in recent days.
Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini said today the US sorties run counter to international rules and regulations (IRNA, 28 October). Hosseini warned that the Iranian military would give a crushing response if the country’s territorial integrity is violated.
Hosseini’s comments are the latest by Iranian officials warning of a possible military attack on Iran in the near future.
Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini said today the US sorties run counter to international rules and regulations (IRNA, 28 October). Hosseini warned that the Iranian military would give a crushing response if the country’s territorial integrity is violated.
Hosseini’s comments are the latest by Iranian officials warning of a possible military attack on Iran in the near future.
Saturday, October 27, 2007
Iran Rockets Hits US Base
US military said today that a 107mm rockets made in Iran in March were fired at a US base southeast of Baghdad on 23 October. No one was injured in the attack on Combat Outpost Cashe, but one US vehicle was damaged.
An unfired rocket along with six rocket rails was seized after the attack. In the last four months, this is the 40th Iranian-manufactured rocket seized by US troops.
Meanwhile in Tehran, Iran’s Defense Minister Brigadier General Mostafa Mohammad Najjar said today that Iranian missiles pose no threat to any country. He said that Iran's missile power is part of “the Islamic world's defense power.” Gen. Najjar did not elaborate what Islamic defense power is.
An unfired rocket along with six rocket rails was seized after the attack. In the last four months, this is the 40th Iranian-manufactured rocket seized by US troops.
Meanwhile in Tehran, Iran’s Defense Minister Brigadier General Mostafa Mohammad Najjar said today that Iranian missiles pose no threat to any country. He said that Iran's missile power is part of “the Islamic world's defense power.” Gen. Najjar did not elaborate what Islamic defense power is.
Thursday, October 25, 2007
The New Sanctions List
In the most sweeping action against Iran since the hostage crisis, United States today slapped sanctions against IRGC and its Quds Force, major Iranian banks and eight individuals.
Entities and Individuals Sanctioned for Proliferation Activities:
- The Islamic Revolution Guards Corp (IRGC)
- IRGC owned or controlled businesses:
Entities and Individuals Sanctioned for Proliferation Activities:
- The Islamic Revolution Guards Corp (IRGC)
- IRGC owned or controlled businesses:
- Khatam al-Anbya Construction Headquarters
- Oriental Oil Kish
- Ghorb Nooh
- Sahel Consultant Engineering
- Ghorb-e Karbala
- Sepasad Engineering Co
- Omran Sahel
- Hara Company
- Gharargahe Sazandegi Ghaem
- IRGC Individuals:
- General Hosein Salimi, Commander of the Air Force, IRGC
- Brigadier General Morteza Rezaie, Deputy Commander of the IRGC
- Vice Admiral Ali Akhbar Ahmadian, Chief of the IRGC Joint Staff
- Brigadier Gen. Mohammad Hejazi, Commander of Bassij resistance force
- Brigadier General Qasem Soleimani, Commander of the Qods Force
- Other Individuals:
- Ahmad Vahid Dastjerdi, Head of the Aerospace Industry Organization (AIO)
- Reza-Gholi Esmaeli, Head of Trade & International Affairs Dept., AIO
- Bahmanyar Morteza Bahmanyar, Head of Finance & Budget Department, AIO
- Ministry of Defense and Armed Forces Logistics (MODAFL), including all industrial units under its control
- Bank Melli Iran, its branches and its subsidiaries
- Bank Mellat, its branches and its subsidiaries
Entities and Individuals Sanctioned for Support for Terrorism:
- IRGC-Quds Force (IRGC-QF)
- Bank Sadererat, its branches and its subsidiaries
On December 11, 2006, the UN Security Council had sanctioned an additional 12 individuals and 11 entities for their involvement in nuclear and ballistic missile programs.
US Adds Three Banks to Iran Sanctions
The US put three Iranian state-owned banks under sanctions. The banks are: Bank Melli Iran, the country’s largest bank; Bank Mellat; and Bank Saderat. Melli and Mellat were sanctioned for their alleged involvement in Iran’s nuclear program. Saderat was designated “a terrorist financier.”
The US sanctions today included Islamic Revolution Guards Corp (IRGC) for its involvement in Iran’s nuclear program and IRGC’s foreign ops directorate, the Quds Force, designated as a terrorist organization.
The US sanctions today included Islamic Revolution Guards Corp (IRGC) for its involvement in Iran’s nuclear program and IRGC’s foreign ops directorate, the Quds Force, designated as a terrorist organization.
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