Iran Nuke within 6 Months – BND

German weekly magazine Stern is reporting today that sources in BND, Germany’s intelligence agency, have told the magazine that Iran is capable of producing and testing an atomic bomb within six months.

Iran will soon be able to produce atomic bombs and to perform underground nuclear testing, just as North Korea has done, experts in the German Foreign Intelligence Service (Bundesnachrichtendienst, BND) have told the weekly, Hamburg-based news magazine stern. "If they want to, they will be able to set off a uranium bomb within six months."

ICHRI on Casualties of Green Uprising

The International Campaign for Human Rights in Iran, a Western-based human rights group, said today at least 34 people were killed during election protests in Tehran on 20 June alone, more than three times the number published by the government.

ICHRI has based its estimate on the reports by medical staff at Imam Khomeini Hospital (19 bodies), Rasool Akram Hospital (8 bodies) and Loghman Hospital (7 bodies).

It said there were other hospitals near the demonstrations that could have received dead or injured protesters.

Nobel peace laureate Shirin Ebadi has estimated that 100 were killed during the Green uprising.

Iran Jet Crash Kills 168

An Iranian passenger plane carrying 153 passengers and 15 crew members crashed today near the northwest city of Qazvin. All aboard were killed.

The Russian-made Tupolev belonging to the Caspian Airways crashed at 11:45 am local time, 16 minutes after the takeoff from Imam Khomeini Airport. The plane was flying from Tehran to Yerevan, the Armenian capital.

On Green Uprising and Shiism

Stanford’s Abbas Milani discusses the intellectual history of the Green uprising in his article titled “The New Democrats” published in The New Republic [15 July 2009]. Milani examines the link between the political battle underway in Iran and the old theological dispute about the nature of Shiism.

Those who voted for Khatami in 1997; the student movement of 1999; the recent struggle of the bus drivers' union for the rights of its workers; the relentlessly defiant but peaceful women's movement, particularly the attempt to solicit one million signatures in favor of reforming discriminatory laws; and, now, the green uprising of 2009--all owe something to the tradition that Na'ini established more than 100 years ago.”

Mousavi Visits Aarabi Family

Sohrab Aarabi: 1990 - 2009

Mousavi and his wife visiting Arabi family
Tehran. 14 July 2009
Gooya News Photo

news.gooya.com reported that Iran’s opposition leader Mir Hossein Mousavi and his wife Zahra Rahnavard tonight visited the family of Sohrab Aarabi, the 19-year old student reportedly killed by Basij Force near Azadi Square in Tehran during post-election protests.

The Mousavis offered their condolences to the family, who had discovered on Saturday that Sohrab died last month of a gunshot wound to the heart. Sohrab has been missing since 15 June, the day he attended a huge opposition rally in Tehran. His body was returned by the government to his family and he was buried on Monday in Tehran.

13 Jundallah Militants Executed

Iran executed 13 members of the militant group Jundallah this morning, but postponed carrying out the death penalty against Abdulhamid Rigi, the brother of the Jundallah leader. The 13 were hanged inside their prison in Zahedan, the restive provincial capital of the Iranian Baluchistan. They were convicted of “waging war against God,” being “corrupt on earth,” and killing innocent people.

Rafsanjani to Lead Friday’s Prayer

Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani
Mehr News Photo

Ayatollah Hashemi Rafsanjani will lead Friday’s Prayer in Tehran on 17 July. Rafsanjani was scheduled to be the Friday Imam for this week prior to the 12 June presidential election and the nationwide protests that followed. He has harshly criticized Ahmadinejad and is generally believed to side with Mousavi. His speech this Friday will be closely watched by Iran analysts as a window to understanding the current power struggle within the Islamic Republic.

Reaction by Iran's Ayatollahs to Green Movement

The following analysis by Majid Mohammadi on the reaction by senior clerics to the recent uprising in Iran was published on 10 July in Mianeh, an independent web-based initiative run as a project by the Institute for War & Peace Reporting. http://www.mianeh.net/en/

Iranian Clerics Diminished by Silence Over Protests
پایان عصر اقتدار اجتماعی نهاد مرجعیت: روحانیت و جنبش اعتراضی سبز مردم ایران
Majid Mohammadi New York 10 July 2009

In the days after the June 12 presidential election, defeated candidates, political parties, relatives of political prisoners, and others dissatisfied with the outcome appealed to senior members of the clergy to intervene to halt government-led repression.

Many reformists hoped that senior clerics would step in following the mass demonstrations, deaths and the arrest of political activists.

Yet the only high-ranking leader to openly condemn the government’s actions was Grand Ayatollah Hossein Ali Montazeri, who was once seen as a possible successor to the late Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, but fell out with him shortly before his death in 1989 over a difference of opinion on human rights.

Two other grand ayatollahs – the highest rank in the Shia clerical system – Yusef Sanei, who once famously issued a fatwa declaring suicide bombings to be “acts of terrorism” and Abdulkarim Mousavi Ardebili, who is also seen as close to the reformers, confined themselves to asking the authorities to review allegations made by protestors, and sending their condolences to the families of those killed during the protests.

Of the other clerics, some either said nothing, like Abdullah Javadi Amoli, Ayatollah Musa Shobairi Zanjani, and Hossein Vahid Khorasani, while others like Ayatollah Hossein Nuri Hamedani came out in support of the government’s actions. Ayatollah Naser Makarem Shirazi was among those who tried to persuade protesters to accept the election result and move on.

Ayatollah Lutfullah Safi Golpayagani, meanwhile, tried to conciliate between the two sides, urging them to seek a middle way.

Two groupings of clerics, the Assembly of Combatant Clerics and the Qom Seminary Researchers and Lecturers Association, backed the stance taken by defeated reformist candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi throughout the protests. However, these two bodies only represent a small fraction of clerics in Iran.

Two powerful clerical bodies from the conservative camp, the Association of Combatant Clerics and the Society of Lecturers of Qom Seminary, chose to remain silent when demonstrators came out onto the streets, although they had not lent their support to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s bid for re-election.

Some believe these groups were intimidated into silence by the attacks leveled against Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, the former president who chairs both Iran’s Assembly of Experts and the Expediency Council, and backed Mousavi’s election bid. Allies of Ahmadinejad accused Rafsanjani and family members of corruption.

When a delegation of protestors visited Qom to speak to clerics on June 19, only Ayatollah Sanei agreed to see them.

Elsewhere in Iran, two other conservative clerical associations – located in Tabriz and Isfahan – supported Mousavi prior to the election, an unusual step given the heightened level of repression facing provincial clerics critical of the government.
Once again, however, they lapsed into silence once the demonstrators appeared on the streets, and made no comment when Mousavi said the results were illegitimate.
Despite the clerics’ reticence about speaking out after the election, the backing that many gave to Mousavi indicates their concern that Ahmadinejad’s administration has acquired too much power and reach.

Iranian clerics may be heavily dependent on the state, and its highest-ranking members enjoy the largesse of an oil-rich government, but they have not desire to lose the public’s respect.

Since the Islamic Revolution of 1979, clerics have been sensitive to developments in society, and have been careful to try to reflect popular moods and trends. They have also long been on their guard against an administration that is shaped by the military and the security forces, and espouses policies that principally benefit these groups.

To understand the Shia clergy’s behaviour before and after election day, it is best to break them down into three categories – seminary students and lecturers; mosque and Friday prayer leaders; and thirdly clerics in government employment as judges, teachers, managers and religious instructors.

Although there is some overlapping between these groups, all three groups are dependent on the office of the Supreme Leader for their livelihoods, one way or another. They no longer derive their principal income from religious tithes paid by members of the public, and their lack of economic dependence on the state is merely notional.

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei quite clearly prefers to maintain the status quo, given that he has long seen Ahmadinejad as his natural ally.

The first category, seminary students, are naturally more supportive of Ahmadinejad because they aspire to fill government posts that will fall vacant once the older generation of clerics step aside. It is also worth noting that government funding for seminaries has gone up substantially during Ahmadinejad’s time in office.

The second group, mosque and prayer leaders, are more traditional and conservative in outlook. They tend not to be so trusting of the president, given his idiosyncratic religious views. They are also in closer touch with ordinary people, and get to hear their complaints about government policies and actions on a daily basis.

The third group, clerics holding down government jobs, are even more solidly supportive of the Supreme Leader than the students. Under Khamenei, favoured clerics have benefited from a good press, with the statements they make accorded far more weight than those of regime critics, who get dismissed as “low-level” clerics by the media. The negative press given to Ayatollah Montazeri is a case in point.

Given the high level of clerical dependence on the state, it was never likely the religious classes as a whole would stand up for the anti-Ahmadinejad protesters. Senior clerics have failed to respond to the many letters they have received from members of the public asking for help.

That silence could undermine public confidence in the clerical establishment, if people begin to believe the authority it has enjoyed in society has been traded for the patronage of an increasingly authoritarian government.

Majid Mohammadi teaches humanities and sociology. He is the author of more than two dozen books on Iran and has a particular interest in political Islam, judicial reform, and social movements.

This article is an abridged and translated version of the full original text published on the Farsi pages of Mianeh, with editorial adjustments agreed with the writer made to provide clarity for English-language readers."

Freed Iranians Arrive in Tehran

IRNA Photos

Five Iranians held in Iraq by the United States arrived in Tehran today and were greeted as heroes. The five were detained in Irbil, a city in Iraq's Kurdish region, on January 11, 2007.

The US military said the men seized in Irbil had been thought to be connected to Iran's IRGC Quds Force, accused of providing funds, weapons, roadside bomb technology and insurgent training.

The Iranian government holds US responsible for kidnapping and detaining of these diplomats in Irbil.

Bandar Abbas

World's Largest Container Ship Arriving in Bandar Abbas, Iran

Rajaei Port. 10 July 2009

Mehr News Agency Photos

F-35 Fighters for Israel

F-35

The Jerusalem Post reported that Israel has ordered at least 25 F-35 stealth fighter aircraft to counter any potential threat from the delivery of Russian S-300 advanced air defense systems. The F-35 Joint Strike Fighter, manufactured by Lockheed, is one of the most advanced fighter jets in the world, replacing the aging F-15 and F-16. The fighters will be delivered to Israel in 2014.

Iran to Execute 12 Jundallah Militants

Iran will execute 12 members of Jundallah (Soldiers of God), the militant Sunni group operating in Iran’s Baluchistan. The twelve will include Abdolhamid Rigi, the brother of the group's leader Abdolmalik Rigi.

The 12 men would be hanged by Friday in Zahedan, Baluchistan’s provincial capital.

Tehran Protests

Intersection of Taleghani & Valinasr. Tehran. 6:30 pm, 9 July 2009.

Kehavarz Blvd. Tehran. 9 July 2009
Chants of "Mir Hossein, Ya Hossin" in support of Mir Hossein Mousavi

CNN Report

Demonstrations in Tehran

Reports from Tehran indicate that demonstrations are under way at Enqelab Square and in front of the nearby University of Tehran campus in commemoration of the 10th anniversary of a deadly police attack on student protesters inside the university’s dormitories.

Police has been using tear gas to disperse the crowd at Enqelab. The reports also indicate that the Basij Force and anti-riot Guards have moved into the square.

Twitter Reports:
- Clashes reported in Saadat Abad. Hundreds of protersters in a sit-in on 12-e-Farvardin.
- Protests also reported in Tabriz, Isfahan and Shiraz.

US Frees Five Iranians Held in Iraq

The US military released five Iranian detainees arrested in Iraqi city of Irbil in January 2007. The five were held on suspicion of arming and funding Shia militias in Iraq. The US military had said at the time that one of the five prisoners was a senior officer in IRGC’s Quds Force. The detainees were handed over to the office of Iraqi prime minister today and will be transferred to Iranian embassy in Baghdad.

G-8: Deadline for Iran Nuke Agreement

G-8 leaders today gave Iran two months to sign an agreement with the West on its nuclear program. The leaders warned that they will reach “new decisions” at the G-20 economic summit in Pittsburgh in late September if there are no agreement with Iran by then [AP, 8 July].

Iran Nuke: US-Russia Deal in Making

President Obama today said the US would scrap the plans to build a missile defense shield in Eastern Europe if Russia helped to stop Iran’s nuclear and nuclear weapon delivery programs.

“I know Russia opposes the planned configuration for missile defense in Europe. I have made it clear that this system is directed at preventing a potential attack from Iran and has nothing to do with Russia,” President Obama said in a speech in Moscow [Timesonline; 7 July 2009].

“If the threat from Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile programs is eliminated, the driving force for missile defense in Europe will be eliminated. That is in our mutual interest.”

The president’s remarks clearly links the missile defense shield with Iran’s nuclear program, putting tremendous pressure on Russia to work toward ending Iran’s uranium enrichment program.

Qatar Army Chief in Tehran

Qatar Armed Forces Chief of Staff, Maj. Gen. Hamad ibn Ali Al Attiyah (right), visited Tehran and met with Iran’s Defense Minister Brig. Gen. Mustafa Mohammad Najjar. Tehran. 7 July 2009. Mehr Photo

Alborz Returns from Aden

IRIN Alborz Returning from Aden
Bandar Abbas. 7 July 2009. Mehr Photo

IRIN frigate Alborz returned to Bandar Abbas today after patrolling the waters off Gulf of Aden. The British-made frigate, commissioned in 1971, was deployed to Aden to protect Iranian oil tankers and merchant ships against the pirates. The frigate became the first IRIN ship to take part in naval operation in international waters. Accompanying Alborz, was IRIN Busheher which also returned to its port of Badar Abbas today.

IRIN has deployed two more ships from their home port of Jask to Gulf of Aden. The IRIN Naghdi, a US-made patrol frigate commissioned in 1964, and IRIN Bandar Abbas.

Kargozaran: No to Election Results

Kargozaran Sazandegi (“Executives of Construction”) Party of Ayatollah Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, former president of Iran and the current chairman of the Assembly of Experts today joined the Majma-eyeh Modaressin of Qom and declared the recent presidential election invalid.

"We declare that the result is unacceptable due to the unhealthy voting process, massive electoral fraud and the siding of the majority of the Guardian Council with a specific candidate," said the statement posted by the party on its website today.

The party’s defiant declaration ran counter to the forceful declaration by IRGC Gen. Yadollah Javani that that "no one is impartial" in the dispute over the election.

"There are two currents -- those who defend and support the revolution and the establishment, and those who are trying to topple it," Gen. Yadollah Javani said on Sunday [IRNA].

IRGC declared yesterday that it has taken over the security apparatus of the regime, adding to its enormous economic and political power, and effectively militarizing the regime.

Islamic Republic: Two Words Which Do Not Tell the Story

Khamanei’s Friday 19 June speech, and now the takeover of the security apparatus of the state by IRGC make it official: the “Republic” part of the Islamic Republic is no more. Even the loyal opposition is not tolerated. We have a new militarized regime.

Majma-eyeh Modaressin’s declaration that the new Ahmadinejad government is illegitimate, takes away the “Islamic” part as well. The senior religious body which was instrumental in bringing Ayatollah Khomeini to power and establishing the Islamic Republic does not accept the legitimacy of this government.

Islamic Republic; two words that do not tell the story of the current government in Iran.

Instead, we are moving toward a Bathist-type dictatorship backed by the military, a dime-a-dozen variety you can find all over the Middle East.