Law Enforcement Crowd Control Management Preparations for 22 Bahman

By Mark Pyruz

IRIPF/SF motorized antiriot policemen

According to the Los Angeles Times, a source inside Iran claims the Islamic Republic of Iran Police Force (IRIPF, or Iranian acronym: NAJA) is preparing for the potentiality of as many as 3 million protesters taking to the streets of Tehran this Thursday. The occasion is 22 Bahman: the 31st anniversary of the founding of the Islamic Republic.

In addition, the same source told the LAT that the government will be mobilizing 500,000 supporters to rally at the event, where President Ahmadinejad is scheduled to deliver a public speech, with invited members of the foreign press included in the audience. (Remarkable, given the scope of projected protests.)

Figures for IRIPF deployment have not been cited, but the LAT provides a figure for Basij volunteers at ~12,000, with many elements of this force being mobilized from various provinces around the country. Accordingly, it can be projected that the number of IRIPF policemen (cadre and conscript-soldiers) could actually be as high as triple that amount or more, with significant numbers of reinforcements being drawn from local, regional and border protection police forces.

IRIPF Mercedes-Benz C200 police car with cadre policemen

It would be surprising to see the less-lethal antiriot policy be lifted in favor of lethal force. However, given the number of cases of violence inflicted upon IRIPF police officers during the Ashura protests, there may or may not be a number of firearms distributed to key personnel, for purposes of self-defense. It can be assumed that IRIPF police officers would be in favor of such, but Iranian government policy so far- initiated after the June 2009 protests- means to prevent or minimize police-inflicted fatalities wherever possible. Perhaps there will be a greater distribution of less-lethal forms of ammunition provided for use in police officer firearms. We'll see how this plays out this coming Thursday.

It will be interesting to see if the IRIPF makes any changes to the tactics employed by its motorized reconnaissance units, which appeared vulnerable under certain conditions during Ashura, as well as if there'll be more effective use of Islamic Republic of Iran Police Aviation (IRIPA) resources, in terms of sustained, coordinated crowd control management.

IRIPA Agusta AB-206A Jet Ranger (Photo: Saeed Ezadi @ Airliners.net)

Also, yet to be deployed in meaningful numbers, is the prospect of uniformed IRGC forces actively participating in crowd control operations, as a full or partial military unit(s). Perhaps they will continue on in a reserve force role, to be fully activated upon emergency.

Lastly, it is safe to assume that additional preparations are being made to accommodate large numbers of arrests, at various jail and correctional facilities.

Given IRIPF's crowd control management estimate of potentially 3 million protesters massing for 22 Bahman, this coming Thursday may see the IRIPF's greatest challenge to date.

Khamenei to Opposition: We Will Punch You in the Mouth

Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei vowed today to deliver a "punch in the mouth" to the country’s opposition if it goes ahead with new protests on Thursday 11 February. The opposition has called for a large turnout of its supporters during a government-sponsored demonstration in Tehran marking the 31st anniversary of the Iranian revolution. It was not clear whether Khamenei objected to their participation in the official demonstration, or if he feared that the participants would turn the occasion into an anti-government protest. The opposition leader Mir Hossein Mousavi has announced that he would participate in the demonstration.

“[Iranians] will punch them in their mouths to shock them," Khamenei said. "Today, it is clear that those who stand against the great job done by the Iranian nation in the election, are not a part of the people [of Iran].”

The opposition claims that the presidential election that resulted in Ahmadinejad’s victory for a second term was fraudulent.

In a related development, an Islamic Republic revolutionary court today sentenced Iran’s former deputy foreign minister and foreign spokesman Mohsen Aminzadeh to six years in prison. Aminzadeh is one of the most senior reformist figures yet to be sentenced. He was charged with “spreading propaganda” against the regime [ISNA, 8 February]. Aminzadeh served during the 1997-2005 administration of former pro-reform president Mohammad Khatami.

More than 100 reform activists and politicians were brought in front of a mass show trial late last year. In the past month, two people have been executed, and death sentences have been announced against nine others. A score of others have been sentenced to six years prison terms for participation in or sympathy toward the postelection protests.

New Iranian SAM in the Making: IRIADF Commander

Iran claimed on Monday it is planning on fielding a home-built air defense missile system affording potential advantages over the Russian S-300 SAM system, which has been ordered by Tehran but yet to be delivered by Moscow.

"Today, we are building all our air defence weapons by ourselves ... the only thing we wanted to import was the Russian S-300 which so far they have not delivered for some unacceptable reasons," senior air defense force commander Heshmatollah Kasiri was quoted as saying by IRNA news agency.

"But our air defence experts and engineers are finding a way, and sometime in the not too distant future we will produce an air defence system which has the capabilities of the Russian S-300 or even more."

In October, Russia's Interfax news agency reported that Iran had made its final payment on the S-300 SAM system because Moscow has not yet given its final approval to deliver on the deal. Under the contract, Russia would sell Iran five batteries of S-300PMU1 missiles for around US$800 million (€530 million), Interfax reported. The S-300PMU1- codenamed SA-20 Gargoyle by NATO- is a mobile land-based system designed to shoot down aircraft and cruise missiles.

Military observers speculate: Chinese/Iranian cooperation on the further development of the HongQi 9 (HQ-9) surface-to-air missile system, perhaps? (Above: PLA HQ-9)

Fajr Aviation Industry Unveils New Light Aircraft

A new Iranian-built twin-engine light aircraft was unveiled Monday in the presence of Defense Minister IRGC Brigadier General Ahmad Vahidi.

Speaking to reporters on the sidelines of the unveiling ceremony, the minister said that the Faez (victor) aircraft was the result of work performed by engineers from the ministry and Fajr Aviation & Composites Industry.

The ceremony was held on the occasion of the 31st victory anniversary of Iran’s Islamic Revolution.

The 175-kilogram aircraft, constructed largely from composite materials, has a claimed range of 1,500 km (three hours) with a maximum speed of 240 km per hour.

It is further claimed to be capable of landing both on land and sea (presumably with floats attached), carrying various logistic, medical and postal payloads.

Faez has successfully passed all test flights, said the minister, adding that the aircraft has the ability to be upgraded from a single-person to a double-person aircraft.

Photos courtesy Fars News Agency.

Production Launched for New Drone Aircraft Types

The Islamic Republic has launched two new production lines to build unmanned aircraft with surveillance and strike capabilities, Iran's defense minister announced Monday.

Iranian television quoted Defense Minister IRGC Brigadier General Ahmad Vahidi as saying the unmanned aircraft would be capable of patrolling, surveilling and fighting operations with high accuracy and a long range.

The two new types of aircraft- or drones- are named Ra'd (thunder) and Nazir (herald), with the former possessing strike capabilities.

Iran announced two years ago it had built an unmanned aircraft with a range of more than 600 miles (1,000 kilometers), long enough to penetrate deep into Iraq, Afghanistan and even reach Israel. It is not immediately clear whether Ra'd or Nazir has such a range.

Iran Producing Its Nuclear Fuel; No Deal

Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization (IAEO) director Ali Akbar Salehi on Sunday said his agency would start work on producing 20-percent enriched uranium inside the country as part of a plan to produce fuel for its nuclear research reactor.

Last week, President Ahmadinejad had announced Iran’s readiness to clinch a deal with the West by accepting to send most of the country’s low-enriched uranium (LEU) stockpile abroad in return for 20-percent fuel.

It was not clear if Iran had already made preparation work to start the reprocessing of its LEU to higher grade. If so, the process would take only months. Then there would be the additional step of processing the 20-percent material into fuel rod to be used in the reactor. Iran has not announced if they have mastered that technology yet, although their announcement that they would produce the fuel inside the country is the first indication that they can indeed convert the higher enriched uranium into fuel rod.

The next step, if Iran chooses to follow, is to produce highest-grade uranium required for nuclear weapons, a step that can be taken in few months if the country possesses the technology. Hence the insistence by the West that Iran trade its existing LEU with fuel produced abroad, the centerpiece of the proposed deal. A deal that seems all but dead with the announcement that Iran would produce its own fuel.

Toofan 5 and Qaem Missiles: Production Startup

Defense Minister IRGC Brigadier General Ahmad Vahidi inaugurated production lines for two new missiles on Saturday, Iranian television reported. Iran's defense industries will produce an anti-helicopter missile named the Qaem (Rising) and an anti-tank guided missile (ATGM) called the Toofan 5 (Storm).

The Qaem is designed to target helicopters at low and medium altitudes, and is reported to be laser guided.

"Toofan 5 is one of the most advanced missiles. It has two warheads which can destroy tanks and other armoured vehicles," Vahidi was quoted as saying by Fars news agency. He said the Qaem was a "missile which can destroy targets in the air travelling at low speed and at low altitude, especially assault helicopters."

The Toofan 5 is similar to the TOW-2A in appearance with additional forward positioned fins and reported laser guidance.

Iran unveiled the new missile types as part of its 10-Day Dawn celebrations for the 31st anniversary of the Islamic revolution.

Video of Toofan 5 and Qaem Missiles:

Production photos of Toofan 5 and Qaem Missiles:

DEF MIN IRGC BG Vahidi besides missile launch platform

Tripod launch platform rear view

Tripod launch platform side view

Electronics unit disassembled in detail

Missile production subassemblies in detail

Toofan 5 anti-tank guided missile (ATGM)

with anti-armor tandem warhead

Qaem anti-helicopter laser guided missile

Photos courtesy of Iranian Students News Agency.

IAEA Chief: No New Iran Proposal

IAEA chief Yukiya Amano said today that Iran's foreign minister, Manouchehr Mottaki, made no new proposals to him on a possible nuclear fuel deal during a meeting on the sidelines of the Munich Security Forum.

"There was not a new proposal. We exchanged views," Amano said.

Since IAEA proposed the compromise at Vienna talks last October, Iranian leaders have simultaneously accepted and rejected the deal. The latest round started on Tuesday when the Iranian president said on national TV that Iran was ready to swap its low-enriched uranium for nuclear fuel, the centerpiece of IAEA proposal. On Friday night Iran’s foreign minister said the two sides are reaching a final agreement. Today, Iran’s powerful Majlis speaker, Ali Larijani, said Iran would not send its enriched uranium abroad, calling the proposed agreement a "political swindle" [Mehr News Agency, 6 February].

IAEA chief is now telling us that Mottaki did not give the agency any new proposal to clinch the agreement. US and European officials had earlier voiced doubt that Iran was ready to accept the IAEA proposal.

UPDATE (Sunday 7 February): President Ahmadinejad ordered Iran's Atomic Energy Organization to start production of 20% enriched uranium.

West Skeptical on Nuclear Deal with Iran

US and European officials today voiced doubt that a deal with Iran on swapping its low-enriched uranium is close. On Friday, Iran’s foreign minister told Munich Security Conference that prospect for clinching such deal was good.

US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates said in Ankara on Saturday that he did not have a sense the two sides were close to an agreement.

“If they are prepared to take up the original proposal of the P-5 plus one of delivering 12,000 kilograms of their low enriched uranium all at once to an agreed party, I think there would be a response to that.

“But the reality is they have done nothing to reassure the international community they are prepared… to stop their progress towards a nuclear weapon, and therefore I think various nations need to think about whether the time has come for a different tack,” Gates added.

German Foreign Minister Guido Westerwelle also said at Munich Conference that Iran had so far failed to dispel Western skepticism that it was prepared to make meaningful concessions over its nuclear program.

"Our hand is still reaching out towards them. But so far it's reaching out into nothingness… And I've seen nothing since yesterday that makes me want to change that view," Westerwelle said.

Final Nuclear Deal Is Close - Mottaki

Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki said in Munich tonight that a final deal on enriched uranium swap is close.

"With regard to discussions with the different parties, I personally believe that we have created condusive ground for such an exchange in the not very distant future," Mottaki said at the Munich Security Conference in Germany.

"Under the present conditions that we have reached, I think that we are approaching a final agreement that can be accepted by all parties."

Mottaki To Munich

The Iranian Foreign Ministry just announced that Manouchehr Mottaki, Iran’s Foreign Minister, would attend Munich Security Conference tonight. He will hold a “night owl” debate on Iran’s nuclear program with Swedish Foreign Minister Carl Bildt late Friday night.

The surprising last-minute decision by Iran to send Mottaki to Munich came just days after Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad signaled Iran’s readiness to accept the IAEA proposed settlement of the Iranian nuclear program.

At the three-day annual conference in Munich, top world politicians will discuss security issues in Europe, the Middle East and elsewhere. Iranian senior officials had in the past attended the conference, but this year the Iranian foreign minister did not register to attend until hours before leaving Iran.

Iran and Iraq exchange war dead

Iran today has handed over the remains of nine Iraqi soldiers, after Iraq gave the bodies of seven soldiers to Iran on Tuesday, this is the first time both sides have exchanged soldiers since Saddam was ousted from power back in 2003.

An estimated million people were killed during the two wars between Iran and Iraq from 1980 to 1988.

Iran's official reports suggest at least 8,000 Iranians are unaccounted for following over twenty years since the ceasefire in August 1988 bought the war to an end.

What Does the Iranian Public Really Think?

The New America Foundation/Iran Initiative hosted an event Wednesday to discuss what the Iranian public really thinks on key issues and the implications for US foreign policy. One of the speakers was Steven Kull, Director of WorldPublicOpinion.org.

Mr. Kull presented an analysis of multiple polls which consistently find little evidence to support the contention that the Iranian public sees its government as illegitimate. His report addressed the following:

Indications of fraud in the June 12 Iranian presidential election, together with large-scale street demonstrations, have led to claims that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad did not actually win the election, and that the majority of Iranians perceive their government as illegitimate and favor regime change. An analysis of multiple polls of the Iranian public from three different sources finds little evidence to support such conclusions.

The analysis conducted by the Program on International Policy Attitudes at the University of Maryland (PIPA), was based on:

• a series of 10 recently-released polls conducted by the University of Tehran; eight conducted in the month before the June 12 election and two conducted in the month after the election, based on telephone interviews conducted within Iran

• a poll by GlobeScan conducted shortly after the election, based on telephone interviews conducted within Iran

• a poll by WorldPublicOpinion.org (managed by PIPA) conducted August 27--September 10, based on telephone interviews made by calling into Iran

Links to the available data and analysis:

• Analysis of Multiple Polls

• Full Report

• Questionnaire with Findings, Methodology for All Three Surveys (PDF)

• WPO Dataset for Downlaod (SPSS Format)

• GlobeScan Dataset for Download (SPSS Format)

Video recorded of The New America Foundation/Iran Initiative event, including presentations by Steven Kull, Jon Cohen, Flynt Leverett, Hooman Majd and Barbara Slavin:


What Does the Iranian Public Really Think - Panel 1


What Does the Iranian Public Really Think - Panel 2

Simorgh Rocket Unveiling / Kavoshgar-3 Launch

Iran hailed the successful rocket launch of the Kavoshgar-3 (کاوشگ۳) during its ongoing 10-Day Dawn (Daheh-ye Fajr) celebrations. The Kavoshgar-3 (Explorer) sounding rocket carried an experimental capsule with living organisms aboard, including a rat, turtles and worms. The capsule also provided empirical data back to a receiving station.

Also unveiled Wednesday was the new Simorgh satellite launch vehicle. The Simorgh is equipped to carry a 100-kilogramme (220-pound) satellite 500 kilometres (310 miles) into orbit, Iranian TV reported.

Aerospace News Video:

PressTV coverage for Iran's aerospace introduction and launch.


Kavoshgar 3 sounding rocket launch sending living organisms onboard into space.

Aerospace News Photos:

New Simorgh (سیمرغ) satellite launch vehicle on display

Cluster of four rocket engines

Navid, Tolou and Mesbah 2 telecommunication satellites

Indigenously manufactured rocket parts (1)

Indigenously manufactured rocket parts (2)

Upper stage (payload) display

Photos courtesy MEHR and IRNA News Agencies.

Iran Ready for Nuclear Deal- Ahmadinejad

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said today Iran was ready to send its enriched uranium abroad in exchange for nuclear fuel. Ahmadinejad has apparently dropped Tehran’s demands that the uranium swap be carried out on Iranian soil and in stages.

"We have no problem with the swap of our enriched uranium," Ahmadinejad said.

"The 3.5 percent fuel will remain in Iran. We sign a contract with them to produce the 20 percent fuel. We would then make the swap

"Even if we send our enriched uranium abroad, there won’t be any problem. Some people inside the country made a big deal and kept saying what if they would take our enriched uranium and refuse to give us the 20 percent fuel. We say if such thing happens, it would be a proof that they were not honest and we will have a free hand to do what we have to do,” he said [IRIB, 2 February].

A US spokesman said today if Iran was serious about a nuclear deal it should inform the IAEA. The UN watchdog agency had brokered a proposed deal last October that Iran would send 70 percent of its low-enriched uranium abroad in exchange for more highly enriched fuel for a medical research reactor, thus reducing Iran's stockpile of enriched uranium below the quantity needed for the fissile core of a nuclear weapon.

Mousavi: Revolution Did Not Achieve Its Goals

Opposition leader Mir Hossein Mousavi said in Tehran today the 1979 Islamic revolution had failed to end tyranny and dictatorship in the country. Mousavi, one of the founding figures of the Islamic Republic, served as the country’s prime minister during the eight-year war with Iraq.

"Dictatorship in the name of religion is the worst kind. The most evident manifestation of a continued tyrannical attitude is the abuse of parliament and judiciary. We have completely lost hope in the judiciary," Mousavi said. [Kalam.com, 2 February]

Mousavi added he no longer believed, as he once did, that the revolution had removed all the structures that could lead to totalitarianism and dictatorship.

"Stifling the media, filling the prisons and brutally killing people who peacefully demand their rights in the streets indicate the roots of tyranny and dictatorship remain from the monarchist era... I don't believe that the revolution achieved its goals," he said.

Mousavi harshly criticized the recent execution of two young protesters. He said the government was unaware of the effective power of innocent blood and did not know that the blood of martyrs destroyed the shah’s regime.

Mousavi made the comments marking the 31^st anniversary of the Iranian revolution.

Iran Celebrates Revolution Anniversary

The celebrations of the 31^st anniversary of the revolution are being held throughout Iran. The ten day period, Ten-Day Dawn, started on 1 February, the day Ayatollah Khomeini arrived in Tehran (1979), and will end on 11 February, when the shah’s government fell, marking the end of more than 2,500 years of monarchy in the country.

Iran Ex-President Accuses the Government of Pushing Country Towards Violence

Former Iranian President Ayatollah Mohammad Khatami today criticized the Iranian government for staging “blind violence” against the opposition.

'This kind of blind violence will have unclear consequences,” Khatami warned.

Khatame criticized the government for executing two young protesters last week. Nine others have also been sentenced to death for their involvement in the protests.

'The correct reply to protests should not be suppression, jail and executions but allowing the people the legal right to say what they want.

“There are some officials who I believe are pushing the country towards violence by spreading lies and accusations,” Khatami said.

Slain Hamas Commander Linked to Iran

Israeli officials said Sunday that the Hamas commander assassinated in a posh Dubai hotel on 20 January played a central role in shipping weapons from Iran to Gaza. Mahmoud Al Mabhouh, the commander, was reportedly in Dubai en route to Tehran when he was killed. Israel has accused Iran of becoming the main pipeline for arms to Hamas-controlled Gaza. Iran has denied involvement in arms shipments to Gaza.

US Deploys Patriot Missiles in Persian Gulf

As the Obama administration moves closer to imposing tough economic sanctions against Iran, the US military has reportedly installed and upgraed the capability of land-based Patriot defensive missiles in Kuwait, Bahrain, UAE and Qatar. The Patriot missile systems, which originally were deployed in the region to shoot down aircraft, now can hit missiles in flight. [AP, 30 January]

The US has now deployed eight Patriot missile batteries - two each in the four countries

The US Navy is also reportedly deploying a number of Aegis ships in the Persian Gulf capable of knocking down hostile missiles in flight.

One military official has told AP the adjustments in the Gulf should be seen as prudent defensive measures designed to deter Iran from taking aggressive action in the region.

Iran Opposition Leaders Call for Anti-Government Protests

Opposion Leaders Mousavi (l.) and Karrubi

AFP File Photo

Iran’s opposition leaders met in Tehran today amid speculations of a showdown between Green movement supporters and the government forces on the 11 February anniversary of the revolution. Mir Hossein Mousavi and Mehdi Karroubi invited their supporters to demonstrate in massive numbers on that day, marking the 31st anniversary of the establishment of the Islamic Republic.

The two leaders said Thursday's hanging of two dissidents was an attempt to keep people away from the February 11 demonstration.

"It seems that such a move is to scare people so they do not take part in the demonstration of 22nd of Bahman (February 11)," Mousavi and Karrubi said.

Senior IRGC and police officers have recently warned that they would not allow the Greens to stage protests on 11 February.

"We will by no means allow anything known as the 'green movement' to make an appearance" on the anniversary, IRGC Brig. Gen. Hossein Hamedani said.