What Does the Iranian Public Really Think?

The New America Foundation/Iran Initiative hosted an event Wednesday to discuss what the Iranian public really thinks on key issues and the implications for US foreign policy. One of the speakers was Steven Kull, Director of WorldPublicOpinion.org.

Mr. Kull presented an analysis of multiple polls which consistently find little evidence to support the contention that the Iranian public sees its government as illegitimate. His report addressed the following:

Indications of fraud in the June 12 Iranian presidential election, together with large-scale street demonstrations, have led to claims that Mahmoud Ahmadinejad did not actually win the election, and that the majority of Iranians perceive their government as illegitimate and favor regime change. An analysis of multiple polls of the Iranian public from three different sources finds little evidence to support such conclusions.

The analysis conducted by the Program on International Policy Attitudes at the University of Maryland (PIPA), was based on:

• a series of 10 recently-released polls conducted by the University of Tehran; eight conducted in the month before the June 12 election and two conducted in the month after the election, based on telephone interviews conducted within Iran

• a poll by GlobeScan conducted shortly after the election, based on telephone interviews conducted within Iran

• a poll by WorldPublicOpinion.org (managed by PIPA) conducted August 27--September 10, based on telephone interviews made by calling into Iran

Links to the available data and analysis:

• Analysis of Multiple Polls

• Full Report

• Questionnaire with Findings, Methodology for All Three Surveys (PDF)

• WPO Dataset for Downlaod (SPSS Format)

• GlobeScan Dataset for Download (SPSS Format)

Video recorded of The New America Foundation/Iran Initiative event, including presentations by Steven Kull, Jon Cohen, Flynt Leverett, Hooman Majd and Barbara Slavin:


What Does the Iranian Public Really Think - Panel 1


What Does the Iranian Public Really Think - Panel 2

A Silent Majority in the Islamic Republic of Iran?

World Public Opinion.org recently took a poll of Iranians living in Iran, over subjects that included Iranian politics, world relations and Iran's nuclear program. The results have surprised many Western analysts, while some questioned the truthfulness of the poll's Iranian respondents.

WPO conducted the poll of 1,003 Iranians across Iran between Aug. 27 and Sept. 10, 2009. The margin of error is 3.1%. Telephone surveys were conducted by a professional survey organization calling in from outside Iran in Farsi.

- Full WPO Iran Report (PDF)
- Iranian Public on Current Issues Questionnaire with Findings (PDF)
- Iranians on their Nuclear Program Questionnaire with Findings (PDF)

Selected poll results:

- Most Iranians express acceptance of the outcome of the Presidential election. Eighty-one percent say they consider Ahmadinejad to be Iran's legitimate president, and 62 percent say they have a lot of confidence in the declared election results.

- Among the 87 percent of respondents who say they voted in the June presidential election, 55 percent say they voted for Ahmadinejad. Only 14 percent say they voted for Mir Hossein Mousavi, the leading opposition candidate.

- Eight in 10 say Ahmadinejad is honest.

- Overall most Iranians express support for their current system of government. Nine in ten say they are satisfied with Iran's system of government.

Reactions to the poll results:
Professor Farideh Farhi: "If I were in Iran and someone called me to ask those direct questions, I would be leery of answering them honestly or directly. I have to ask whether fear may have been a factor in the results."

Jim Lobe: "Some analysts, notably neo-conservatives closely identified with Israel, have asserted that negotiations are a waste of time and that the regime has become so unpopular that imposing tough sanctions now could bring about its collapse. The WPO survey, however, casts serious doubt on the latter assumption, in particular. In addition to the broad acceptance of Ahmadinejad as the "legitimate president", the poll found a relatively high degree of confidence in the country's main governing institutions."

Mark Pyruz: "These poll results remind me of a period of American history I lived through during the late 1960's, early '70's. The civil rights and antiwar protests were regular events. There were massive demonstrations, violent police crackdowns, even a number of protesters shot and killed by security forces. The most radical of the demonstrators were openly calling for a revolution. Yet during that time, there emerged an American politician that claimed these protesters did not represent America. He declared that there was a "silent majority" that rejected this kind of thing, were even repulsed by it. And he was proven right. He was elected president. And during the height of the demonstrations, he was actually reelected by a substantial landslide. So to me, these WPO poll results suggest the possibility of an Iranian "silent majority'."
Chicago Pre-Election 1968 / Tehran Post-Election 2009
Kent State Shooting 1970 / Neda on YouTube 2009

--MARK PYRUZ