Dysfunction in "Iran house"--Saeed Mortazavi Arrested

Then Released

By: Jabbar Fazeli, MD

A day after the Larijani-Ahmadinejad public clash in the parliament (majlis), Mr. Saeed Mortazavi was arrested on Monday as he left his office and taken to Evin prison (1,4).

President Ahmadinejad was quick to point out that the judiciary is arresting the whistle blower instead of arresting those guilty of corruption (the Larijani brothers) (5). It should be noted that the judiciary is now run by one of the Larijani brothers.

For the uninitiated, I would like to recap why and how Mr. Mortazavi took center stage in the Iranian regime dysfunction on display this week.

After the 2009 Presidential "elections" Mr. Mortazavi was the chief prosecutor who presided over the televised journalist and activists confessions on state TV. He smirked as the opponents of the regime were made to confess to all sorts of conspiracies and wrongdoings.

He was also prominent in the "Kahrizak" scandal, where students involved in the post election 2009 protests were sent to the notorious بازداشتگاه کهریزک kahrizak prison (now closed by order of the supreme leader Khamenei). The 50 inmate capacity detention center took on 140 prisoners in 2009, including many student protestors who were subjected to systematic torture and mistreatment. At least three student died under torture, including Mohsen Rouhalamini the son of Mr. Abdolhossein Rouhalamini, a prominent conservative insider (2). He helped raise the profile of the kahrizak scandal and even confronted the supreme Khamenei during a public event and asked for justice for his dead son.

Mr. Mortazavi's name was prominent in the Kahrizak "parliament investigation" for failing to protect the student protestors and housing them with common criminals during their detention. Mr. Mortazavi is considered the "torturer in chief" by many activists who have for the past 4 years tried and failed to convince the regime to arrest and prosecute him for his 2009 crimes.

In lieu of arrest, Mr. Mortazavi was rewarded for his loyalty to the regime and the Ahmadinejad administration with various government posts ending with his appointment as the head of the multibillion dollar "Social Security Fund", a division of the "Department of Labor" and answerable to the minister of labor.

As part of the recent anti-Ahmadinejad offensive, the parliament (majlis) ordered the labor minister to fire Mr. Mortazavi a month ago. Instead of accepting the directive, the Ahmadinejad government changed the name of Mr. Mortazavi's department from "social security fund" صندوق تأمین اجتماعی to "social security organization" سازمان تامین اجتماعی and put it under the jurisdiction of the vice presidency (answerable to the president only).

Last Sunday the majlis (parliament) reacted by impeaching the minister of labor for refusing to fire Mr. Motazavi, and rebucking Mr. Ahmadinejad for trying to defy the authority of the parliament.

Sometime ago, president Ahmadinejad had apparently persuaded Mr. Mortazavi to invite the brother of his arch rival, the speaker of parliament, to a meeting where he taped Mr. Fazel Larijani trying to secure a favorable financial position in potential corrupt dealings involving a wealthy individual and investment relating to the "social security fund" (3).

As part of his speech to defend his minister of labor before the impeachment vote, Mr. Ahmadinejad claimed to have 23-24 hours worth of damning video and audio recording and offered 25 minutes of edited tape to the parliament. The recording was not audible due to "technical difficulties" and so Ahmadinejad proceeded to read excerpts from the tape during open session of parliament.

A day after the Clash between Larijani and Ahmadinjad, Mr. Mortazavi was arrested and sent to Evin prison In a apparent score settling. Mr. Mortazavi was not arrested for being complicit in the death of young students in 2009; He was arrested because he was taking part in a conspiracy to bring down the Larijani brothers.

The next chapter in this surreal episode of Islamic Republic politics is yet to be written, but it is becoming clear that Ahmadinejad is not willing to take the fall for the failures of the regime. On the other hand, Mr. Ali Larijani (the current speaker of the house) is the apparent "Khamanei choice" presidential candidate for the elections in June 2013.

Ali Larijani's actions against the lame duck president is the closest thing to active campaigning. As a sign of the supreme leader's blessing, the speaker of the parliament had quite a few high profile assignments by the supreme leader, including an official visit to Russia in recent months. He is trying to further build his credentials by criticizing the president and blaming him for the economic crisis in Iran. The attack on the increasing irrelevant Ahmadinejad is also serving to create a positive image for Larijani with the media and the Po-regime crowd.

I should say that I had a headache trying to decipher the infighting and "intrigue" in this Iranian non-story. At a time financial crisis and threat of war, the politcial termoil in Iran seems to be centered around protecting cronies and setling scores using obscure legal and constitutional rules.

I couldn't help but be reminded of an Iranian cautionary tale of Mullah Nasruddin, a wise man, who tries to break a fight between two men and in the process the two strangers steal his blanket. When asked "what was the fight about" he answers "my blanket!".

Iranians might feel the same way as Mullah Nasruddin as they watch the Larijanis duke it out with the Ahmadinejad camp over their "blanket".

In the meantime, Mortazavi was unconditionally released yesterday in Tehran with the government promising to "investigate" the corruption allegations.

References:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/middle_east/iran-arrests-former-tehran-prosecutor-2-years-after-assembly-implicated-him-in-torture-deaths/2013/02/05/0e8bd022-6f57-11e2-b35a-0ee56f0518d2_story.html

(2)http://www.pbs.org/wgbh/pages/frontline/tehranbureau/2009/08/official-leak-rouholamini-tortured-to-death.html

(3)http://english.tamin.ir/

(4)http://www.nytimes.com/2013/02/06/world/middleeast/ahmadinejad-ally-arrested-as-fight-with-family-grows.html?_r=0

(5)https://mobile.mmedia.me/lb/en/international/ahmadinejad-slams-iran-judiciary-over-ex-prosecutor-arrest

Photo source: khorshid newspaper, PBS, metafilter.com, enduringamerica.com

Mashaie Convicted

Esfandyar Rahim Mashaie, Ahmadinejad’s chief of staff and his controversial choice to become his first vice president, was convicted in a Tehran court on charges of “financial misconduct,” Jomhouri Eslami reported on Thursday [Farsi text on Jahat-e Etella page].

Iran’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, had ordered Ahmadinejad to withdraw Mashaie’s nomination for vice presidency. Mashaie’s conviction will be a severe blow to Ahmadinejad. Jomhouri Eslami reports that the court has sentenced Mashaei to 2-month suspension from his government post.

On Green Uprising and Shiism

Stanford’s Abbas Milani discusses the intellectual history of the Green uprising in his article titled “The New Democrats” published in The New Republic [15 July 2009]. Milani examines the link between the political battle underway in Iran and the old theological dispute about the nature of Shiism.

Those who voted for Khatami in 1997; the student movement of 1999; the recent struggle of the bus drivers' union for the rights of its workers; the relentlessly defiant but peaceful women's movement, particularly the attempt to solicit one million signatures in favor of reforming discriminatory laws; and, now, the green uprising of 2009--all owe something to the tradition that Na'ini established more than 100 years ago.”

Majlis Elections: Changing the Results before Any Vote is Cast!

Iran’s Ministry of Interior has banned nearly one-third of the candidates from standing in 14 March parliamentary elections. Individuals with “a record” at the Ministry of Intelligence, the police or the judiciary were banned. The Interior Ministry rejected some 2,200 candidates, representing 31% of those registered. Reformist parties report that hundreds of their candidates were disqualified. The Islamic Participation Front, a main reformist party, said that 70 percent of reformist candidates from different groups had been disqualified from the ballot. “Such large number of disqualifications is unprecedented,” said a statement by the party.

The vetting process is not over yet. The Guardian Council would now examine the qualification of the remaining candidates based on their loyalty to the Islamic Republic and adherence to the Islamic principles. Additional moderate and reformist candidates are expected to be disqualified by the Guardian Council.

Voters will not have much of a choice when they go to the polls. The traditional conservatives and radical fundamentalists in control of every branch of government feared they could loose control of the parliament to reformists and moderates. By banning their opponents, the government is changing the results of the elections before even a single vote is cast.

The elections were increasingly seen as a test of popularity for Ahmadinejad. “Conservatives are scared of a reformist victory because of the government's failed economic policies,” said Mostafa Tajzadeh, a former deputy interior minister and a leading reformist. It appears that the Interior Ministry and the Guardian Council would prevent the elections to be turned into a referendum on Ahmadinejad’s government. The inflation and unemployment are at record high, and a shortage of heating gas during a record cold winter has caused many deaths and widespread dissatisfaction with the government.

Even the government’s nuclear policy, seemingly a safe heaven for Ahmadinejad, has started to unravel. With the publication by the US government of the new NIE, the public expected a quick turnaround and the referral of Iran’s nuclear dossier from UN Security Council back to IAEA. But Ahmadinejad’s government could not even prevent China and Russia to vote for yet another UN sanctions resolution. The government looks hapless and disorganized.

The reformists had a realistic second chance at power. Disqualifying so many candidates might save the day for the government, but would create a potentially bigger problem, loosing its legitimacy. Hasan Rowhani, the former chief nuclear negotiator and the current head of the Centre for Strategic Studies, spoke eloquently about the “danger of popular vote turning into mere formality.”

In The New York Times today we read the telling story of Akbar Alami. Alami, a current member of the parliament and an outspoken critic of Ahmadinejad, is a devout Muslim and an Islamic Republic loyalist from an early age. He lost most of his right hand in the war with Iraq. Yet he was among the candidates who were disqualified to stand for elections.

“At age 52, I learned that according to the Executive Board [of elections] I had allegations of non-commitment to Islam, lack of belief in the system of the Islamic Republic and lack of following the constitution of the Islamic Republic,” said Alami.

The “in” circle in the Islamic Republic is shrinking rapidly and with it the government’s legitimacy claimed during a popular uprising nearly thirty years ago.

Ashofteh Bazaar of Iranian Politics

Ashofteh is best translated into English as chaotic. Ashofteh bazaar of Iranian politics is how Tehran’s influential daily Jomhouri Eslami (“Islamic Republic”) has described the state of politics under the presidency of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. The paper, widely believed to having close ties to Iran’s supreme leader, in a harsh attack on Iran’s president has accused him of behaving illegally towards government’s critics.

“It is unbecoming a law-abiding country to allow a person in whatever capacity to act as plaintiff, judge and executor,” said the newspaper editorial about Ahmadinejad accusing an opponent of his nuclear policies as traitor (Jomhouri Eslami, 21 November).

“Lately, spreading propaganda and auctioning the reputations of adversaries has displaced the rule of law in our nation's general atmosphere,” said the paper.

The editorial is the latest indication of a deepening power struggle underway in Tehran. Ahmadinajad has used the country’s nuclear program to label the reformist and moderate opposition as unpatriotic. Ahmadinejad in turn is coming under increasing attack for his extremist stance on the nuclear issue. Former presidents Khatami and Rafsanjani have sounded alarm, and Iran’s Nobel Peace Prize laureate Shirin Ebadi has called on the government to suspend its uranium enrichment activities to avoid bringing war to the country.

In the ashofteh bazaar of Iranian politics, something has to give. In the simplest form, it is a struggle for survival between Ahmadinejad, representing the extremists, and Rafsanjani, representing the moderates. Even a chaotic bazaar is too small for them both. If today’s editorial is any indication of Khamenei’s move to distance himself from Ahmadinejad, then Ahmadinejad's days in Marmar Palace are numbered.

Ahmadinejad at War

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is coming under increasing pressure to moderate his extremist stance on the nuclear issue. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, is also coming under pressure to rein in Ahmadinejad.

The reformists and traditional conservative, including former presidents Mohammad Khatami and Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, are sounding alarm at Ahmadinejad’s pronouncements on Iran’s nuclear advances, which at times seem like inviting the US and Israel to hit the country’s nuclear installations and to start a war. On 7 November, he defiantly said that despite threats of a military attack on Iran, the country has built 3,000 uranium enrichment centrifuges. The 3,000 number was significant because it is generally believed it represents a threshold where a country can produce enough enriched uranium to build nuclear weapons.

Moderates fear the uncompromising nuclear policies of the government will lead to a disastrous military conflict. They point to the US military buildup in the Persian Gulf. There are a carrier battle group and an expeditionary unit with fighter jets and a large contingent of marines. There are dozens of more fighters and bombers at bases in Qatar, UAE, Iraq, Diego Garcia and elsewhere in the region. Voices of moderation within the Islamic Republic are calling for conflict-resolution concessions, namely a temporary suspension of uranium enrichment activities. Ahmadinejad angrily labeled his critics “traitors” and questioned their mental capacity by calling them “little goats.”

The extremists led by Ahmadinejad see the situation not as a threat to nation’s security, but as an opportunity to force the US military out of the region. They point to US Fifth Fleet’s vulnerability to Iran’s advanced anti-ship missile arsenal. The Russian-built cruise missiles are positioned on the rugged mountains overlooking the Persian Gulf. They believe that they can destroy most of the Fifth Fleet by those cruise missiles. Hence they feel the US would not dare to attack Iran’s nuclear facilities. In their minds, this is a game of Chicken, and the US will back down.

In a tense situation prevailing in the region, the moderates warn, any miscalculations on either side can start a conflict that could get out of control. If Iranian cruise missiles destroyed even a single US ship, with the high casualties involved, it would be a total war on Iran, including the possible use of tactical nukes against the nuclear and missile installations. It would be a disaster for Iran and a disaster for the entire region.

Ahmadinejad is dead set on playing the game, building nuclear capabilities and wining the next rounds of parliamentary and presidential elections, slated for March 2008 and May 2009 respectively, on nationalistic and populist sentiments if Iran gets close to building the bomb. His anger and use of vulgar language in recent days is a reaction to becoming increasingly isolated within the establishment. The reformists and traditional conservatives see in him an extremist out of control who need to be stopped now.

Iran’s nuclear program and Iran-US relations have become the hottest issues in the power struggle unfolding in Tehran.

Ahmadinejad Calls His Critics "Traitors"

President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad today labeled the critics of his nuclear policies "traitors," and accused them of spying and collaborating with Iran’s enemies.

"They sent people to the enemy to regularly give them information from within the ruling system every week," Ahmadinejad told a group of students at Science and Industry University in Tehran (IRNA, 12 November).

The moderate and reformist politicians, including former presidents Mohammad Khatami and Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, have in recent days warned the government of the seriousness of the threat to Iran’s security if the international concerns over Iran’s nuclear program are ignored.

Ahmadinejad is increasingly becoming isolated within the country’s political elite, and is reacting with anger and vulgar language. Last week he called his critics "goats," apparently for their low level of intellect. Now he is accusing them of being "traitors," apparently for advocating a diplomatic solution to the nuclear standoff.

Ahmadinejad vowed to expose his critics’ collaboration with Iran’s enemies.

A Major Power Struggle Underway in Iran

In just one week some major events have occurred in the Iranian capital that might change the face and the politics of the Islamic Republic.

Last Tuesday, Russian President Vladimir Putin delivered a message to supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei. Putin reportedly warned Khamenei of a major US military attack on Iran if the Iranian did not offer an acceptable compromise on uranium enrichment program. A temporary enrichment suspension (coupled with the suspension of all UN sanctions against Iran) could well be the desired compromise. Russia needed something concrete from the Iranians if it was expected to stop a military attack or further economic sanctions against Iran.

Ali Larijani, at the time the chief nuclear negotiator, told reporters on Wednesday that Putin had delivered a message to Khamenei with regards to nuclear standoff which was being analyzed. IRNA, the official news agency, reported on Wednesday that Khamenei was “pondering” Putin’s proposal.

On Thursday, President Ahmainejad said Putin did not utter a word on any nuclear proposal and there were no message or proposal delivered to Khamenei. Gholamhossein Elham, the government’s spokesman, that day reiterated the government position that no suspension, temporary or permanent, of uranium enrichment was acceptable.

On Saturday, Larijani unexpectedly resigned or was put in a position to leave his post. Larijani reportedly favored the double-suspension compromise offered by Putin. Ahmadinejad strongly objected. The future of Iran’s nuclear program and that of the Islamic Republic was on the line. Both sides hardened their positions in what they thought was the best plan of action for the Islamic Republic.

On Monday, Ahmadinejad left Iran on a two-day state visit to Armenia. On Tuesday, the day he was scheduled to deliver a major address to Armenian parliament, he unexpectedly cut short his trip and returned to Tehran. An Armenian presidential spokesman, Robert Kocharyan, said Ahmadinejad was forced to cut short the trip because of political developments in Tehran.

On Tuesday, 183 Majlis deputies signed an open letter to Ahmadinejad voicing their support for Larijani. In the same day, former foreign minister Ali Akbar Velayati, a senior advisor and a long-time confidant of Khamenei, criticized Larijani’s departure. The message from the deputies and Velayati was clear: Larijani’s departure and not accepting a compromise has put Iran in danger. Ahmadinjad cut his rip short to be in Tehran.

The events of the past few days clearly show that a major power struggle is underway in Tehran: Ahmadinejad against Khamenei. The disputes are for now centered on the nuclear issue but is going well beyond that. At stake is who would rule Iran in the next decade. Ahmadinejad is not accepting any compromise, relying on what he perceives a solid backing from the public and the revolutionary guards (IRGC). He is going as far as challenging Khamenei, who apparently is erring on the side of caution and accepting a limited compromise on nuclear issue.

The Islamic Republic, during its early days, had witnessed such major power struggle. Bani Sadr challenged Khomeini, hoping for a vast public support. He was forced to flee the country and now lives in exile. Khamenei is much weaker than Khomeini and the outcome of the current power struggle is by no means guaranteed. Iran’s political elite is gathering against Ahmadinejad and might be powerful enough to literally or practically force him out of the office. These are intriguing days for the Islamic Republic and for Iran.