Russia Suspends Flights to Egypt - UPDATE

President Vladimir Putin today suspended all flights from Russia to Egypt until the cause of the crash of the Metrojet Flight 9268 can be established. Egypt is the most popular tourist destination for Russians, and there are more than 25 daily flights from Russia to Egypt. Until now, the Russian authorities have been playing down the possibility of terrorism in the crash of 9268.

UPDATE: France24 reported today that European investigators who analyzed the two flight recorders from the Metrojet plane are categorically ruling out accident. They said the cockpit voice recorder shows an explosion, and the flight date recorder confirms the explosion was not accidental.

United States and Britain shared their intelligence with Russia concerning the Metrojet crash before Putin made the decision to suspend flights, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Paskov told CNN late Friday. 

Putin Calls for Cooperation between Washington and Moscow on Syria - UPDATE

Russia Would Provide Support to Armed Opposition Groups in Syria Willing to Fight the Islamic State - Putin

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Thursday called for cooperation between Washington and Moscow on Syria and beyond, saying it is now a crucial moment in East-West relations not unlike the end of the Cold War, the New York Times reported.

“Syria, despite the dramatic situation there now, might become a model for partnership for the sake of our joint interests, for the resolution of our problems, which concern everyone, for working out an effective system of risk management,” said Putin, seemingly laying out a broad plan for global cooperation with the United States and the West in general. (The New York Times, 23 October)

Putin said he hoped the beginning of such cooperation would emerge from talks in Vienna on Friday between the foreign ministers of Russia, Turkey and Saudi Arabia as well as the U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry.

Putin made his remarks in Sochi at Valdai Discussion Club, an annual gathering of Russian experts, sharing the stage with regional figures, including Ali Larijani, Iran’s speaker of Majlis. Putin added the Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, who visited him in Moscow earlier in the week, was willing to make a common cause with the armed opponents, as long as they were willing to fight the Islamic State.

“I will pull back the curtain a little on my talks with President Assad,” Putin said, adding that he had proposed providing Russian support to armed opposition groups in Syria that are willing to fight the Islamic State.

“What would be your view if we were to support their efforts in fighting the Islamic State in the same way we are supporting the Syrian Army?” Putin said he asked, and Assad answered, “I would view that positively.” (The New York Times, 23 October)

The Russian leader emphasized that any political transition in Syria would have to be led by the current government, but added that it “should be a transparent process with international monitoring.”

Putin as well as Larijani in their speeches rejected proposals for Syria’s partition, calling them a formula for endless warfare and dangerous gains by the militants.

UPDATE: The foreign ministers of the United States, Russia, Saudi Arabia and Turkey met on Friday in Vienna to put forward new ideas for a political transition in Syria. They agreed to meet again next week in an expanded format, which could include foreign ministers from Iran and other regional countries.

“I am convinced… that today’s meeting was constructive and productive and succeeded in surfacing some ideas… which I hope have a possibility of changing the dynamics,” U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said after the meeting. (AP, 23 October)

Top photo: Russian President Vladimir Putin at Sochi gathering (BBC)
Bottom photo: From left: Foreign ministers of Turkey, United States, Saudi Arabia and Russia during their meeting on Syria; Vienna, Friday 23 October 2015 (Twitter)

Assad in Russia - UPDATE

In his first foreign trip since Syria's civil war started in 2011, Syrian President Assad made an unannounced trip to Moscow to discuss Syria with Russian President Putin. Assad arrived in Moscow on Monday.

Since Russia began its direct military involvement in Syria on 30 September, it has effectively assumed the leadership of the pro-government coalition fighting the opposition and Islamist extremist groups in the country. Putin told Assad that Russia was ready to contribute to the fight and to a political settlement of the conflict that has raged for more than four years, the Kremlin said in a statement today. The statement did not say if the future of Assad was also discussed in the meeting, but interestingly Assad was not accompanied by his military or political teams during the visit.

Meanwhile, Turkey said on Monday that it would accept the Syrian leader’s staying in office for the first six months of a political transition, at the end of which he must go. (The New York Times, 21 October) 

UPDATE: Russia said on Tuesday that president Putin had telephone conversations over the course of the day with King Salman of Saudi Arabia, President Erdogan of Turkey, President Sisi of Egypt, and King Abdullah of Jordan to discuss his talks in Moscow with Syrian President Assad. (President of Russia/Twitter)   

Photo credit: Syrian President Bashar al-Assad meeting Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Kremlin; Tuesday 21 October 2015 (AFP)

Putin Meets Leaders of Saudi Arabia and UAE

Syria and Fight against ISIL on Top of Agenda

 

Russian President Vladimir Putin meeting with Saudi Arabia Deputy Crown Prince and Defense Minister Mohammad bin Salman (top photo) and UAE Crown Prince Mohammed bin Zayed (above) in Sochi, Russia; 11 October 2015 (President of Russia @KremlinRussia)

U.S. Willing to Work with Russia and Iran to Resolve Syrian Conflict - Obama

UN General Assembly opened today with a focus on the Syrian conflict. President Obama said the U.S. is willing to work with any nation – including Russia and Iran, to resolve the conflict in Syria. Obama added that the pre-war scenario in which Assad remains in power could not be part of the solution, emphasizing that we should not support “tyrants like Bashar al-Assad, who drops barrel bombs on innocent children, because the alternative is surely worse.” But Obama used the language of a compromise in describing leadership change in Syrian as a “managed transition” away from Assad.

“The United States is prepared to work with any nation, including Russia and Iran, to resolve the conflict. But we must recognize that there cannot be, after so much bloodshed, so much carnage, a return to pre-war status quo,” Obama told heads of states and governments and other officials present at the UNGA.

“Yes, realism dictates that compromise will be required to end the fighting and ultimately stamp out ISIL. But realism also requires a managed transition away from Assad and to a new leader, and an inclusive government that recognizes there must be an end to this chaos so that the Syrian people can begin to rebuild,” Obama said.

Russian President Vladimir Putin, who spoke at UNGA shortly after Obama, said no one but Assad and his armed forces are truly fighting the Islamic State. He did not elaborate on the assertion, especially given the fact that Assad and his military have rarely engaged against ISIL and instead have on opposition forces and other anti-regime groups.

Putin shared his concern that fighters recruited by ISIL, presumably Chechens and other Russians, may one day return home to Russia. Putin said, “We cannot allow these criminals who tasted blood to return home.” Putin called for a grand coalition of nations to fight ISIL.

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani, who spoke after Obama and Putin, did not mention Assad by name. But he also called for a global coalition against terrorists, and proposed a “biding international document” against terrorism.

Rouhani’s remarks on the problems plaguing the region focused instead against the United States and its support for an “inhumane” Israel, saying current conflicts in the region are ultimately the product of American policy.

“If we did not have the U.S. military intervention in Afghanistan and Iraq… today the terrorists would not have an excuse or justification for their crimes,” Rouhani said.

It’s worthy to note that the Islamic Republic actively supported the U.S. military intervention in Afghanistan after 9/11. It was not clear if Rouhani’s reference now to that war is a change in the official Iranian position.

Photo credit: Presidents Obama and Putin at the UN luncheon after their speeches to the General Assebly; Monday 28 September 2015 (Twitter)

Russia Expands Military Presence in Syria

Beyond Latakia Airfield

Russian forces are expanding their military presence in Syria beyond Latakia airfield, south of the Mediterranean port, where Moscow has deployed more than two dozen combat aircraft. HIS Jane’s reported today on additional, previously undisclosed, Russian military buildup, including a weapons depot and a military facility north and west of Latakia. The satellite images from mid-September suggest that Russia is preparing to place troops in both places, according to Robert Munks, editor of HIS Jane’s Intelligence. 

The images, acquired by Jane’s from a commercial satellite division of Airbus Group, show construction of new buildings, the presence of new tents typically used by Russian military units and significant development of the grounds, Munks said. (HIS Jane’s, 22 September)

President Putin’s move in Syria is the first military intervention by Russia or Soviet Union outside the former Soviet zone in more than 30 years.

File photo: Russian President Vladimir Putin (Metzel Mikhail/Zuma Press/The Wall Street Journal)