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| Photo source: unkown, worl.time.com, heraldsun.com.au, |
The needles loss of life aside, the Israeli move to attack Hamas appears to serve some strategic and tactical purposes.
First and foremost, the attack on Gaza is serving as a giant maneuver to test Israeli missile defense capabilities while at the same time taking out Hamas military leadership (to cause the maximum retaliation). The Palestinian militants are predictable in that when Israel attacks they retaliate, and when Israel puts out a story that they took out most of Hamas and Islamic Jihad missile capabilities (3), they can expect the militants to show off their longest range missiles.
It should be said that the missile defense system doesn't seem too impressive, at least not to the residents of tel aviv. One medium range (by local standard) missile fired on tel aviv without being intercepted (technically that's a 0% success rate on the shahab-3 missile intercept), (2)
On the targeted assassinations themselves, if history is to repeat itself then for every militant killed the next one to replace him will likely be more militant and a garanteed staunch enemy of Israel.
The other objective, or unexpected bonus, was creating the circumstance for the new regime in Egypt to send its PM to tel aviv, which is a big political milestone since the revolution. Israel also used the opportunity to show the Egyptians respect by announcing a cease fire during the PM visit (which didn't hold). (1) The withdrawal of ambassador is a minor side show at this point.
Israel has created the circumstances where the new Egyptian regime, and the average Egyptian, can come to appreciate that a relationship with Israel is necessary to advance the Palestinian cause. Ironic but true. This can be a win win for Israel and Egypt, Egypt can be the hero for stopping the fighting and Israel starts a new chapter with Egypt based on mutual interests, rather than outside pressure.
For the government of Israel the sirens in tel aviv last night (see video below) must have been the worst moment and a major setback which is likely to hurt them on Election Day.
Like any war, this mini war comes with a sobering new understandings; If Hamas rockets can get through, then so will the Iranian rockets and in larger numbers. That alone might delay the war with Iran a few more months.
(A sidenote, if islamic Jihad managed to smuggle in medium range missiles then it stands to reason that the same shipments might have included surface to air missiles.)
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