A miniseries produced and shown in Iranian TV portrays with sympathy the plight of Jews in World War II Holocaust. Zero Degree Turn, as the miniseries is called, tells the story of an Iranian diplomat stationed in Paris in the 1940’s who gave out about 500 Iranian passports to Jews to escape occupied France on their way to Palestine.
The show is based on a true story of diplomats in Iranian Embassy in Paris during the war who helped Jews escape the Fascists and the Holocaust.
The Holocaust is rarely mentioned in state media in Iran and school textbooks don't discuss it. The Iranian president has questioned whether the Holocaust even took place. But the miniseries could probably not be shown on state television without the expressed approval of the office of the supreme leader.
The miniseries also portrays women in 1940s Paris without Islamic Hijab, breaking another taboo in the shows produced in Iran. The series began in April and is shown on Monday nights.
Sunday, September 16, 2007
Iran Arming the Taliban
Robin Wright, a senior staff writer at The Washington Post, reports today that Iranian arms shipment destined for the Taliban was intercepted 6 September by NATO forces in Afghanistan.
The officials of the NATO-led International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) has told The Post that the intercepted shipment included armor-piercing bombs known as explosively formed projectiles which have been especially deadly when used as roadside bombs against foreign troops in Iraq.
The Iranians are indeed playing a dangerous game. They are arming the Taliban to hurt the Americans. The direct involvement against the US armed forces in Iraq and now in Afghanistan, however, can only accelerate a US military attack on Iran.
Khamenei and Ahmadinejad seem to be convinced that the US will not attack Iran under any circumstances, even if they supply deadly weapons to the Iraqi militias or to the Taliban. This is a dangerous and irresponsible thinking. All political pressures in Washington to wind down the war in Iraq notwithstanding, the Iranian supply of arms to the enemies of the US in order to kill the American military personnel will bring about an armed response from the US in which Iran could only loose.
The officials of the NATO-led International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) has told The Post that the intercepted shipment included armor-piercing bombs known as explosively formed projectiles which have been especially deadly when used as roadside bombs against foreign troops in Iraq.
The Iranians are indeed playing a dangerous game. They are arming the Taliban to hurt the Americans. The direct involvement against the US armed forces in Iraq and now in Afghanistan, however, can only accelerate a US military attack on Iran.
Khamenei and Ahmadinejad seem to be convinced that the US will not attack Iran under any circumstances, even if they supply deadly weapons to the Iraqi militias or to the Taliban. This is a dangerous and irresponsible thinking. All political pressures in Washington to wind down the war in Iraq notwithstanding, the Iranian supply of arms to the enemies of the US in order to kill the American military personnel will bring about an armed response from the US in which Iran could only loose.
Friday, September 14, 2007
Richard Frye’s Search for Unending Iranian-American Friendship
Richard Frye The Iranian government has approved a request by Professor Richard Frye, the preeminent scholar and lover of Iran, to be buried on the bank of Zayandeh Rood in Isfahan. Richard Fryer, 87, wrote the following in his request:
“I, who have spent all my life on studying and teaching the glorious culture of ancient and Islamic Iran, request that my body be buried next to Zayande Rood in the beautiful city of Isfahan, the place I have admired and loved all my life, hoping that this would make for close ties between the two great nations of Iran and America.”
Richard N. Frye is born in 1920. He is Agha Khan Professor Emeritus of Iranian Studies at Harvard University. He received his PhD in Asiatic history from Harvard in 1946. He founded the Center for Middle Eastern Studies at Harvard. He also served as the director of Asia Institute of Pahlavi University (now the University of Shiraz) from 1970 to 1975.
Frye has spent 60 years researching and writing history books about Iran. His famous book, Greater Iran, is Frye’s memoirs of these long years devoted to understanding Iran and its history. The prominent Iranian linguist Ali Akbar Dehkhoda famously gave Frye the title of “Irandoost” (Lover of Iran).
Several Americans have been buried in Iran in the past, including one who was celebrated as a national hero. Howard Conklin Baskerville, an American teacher, participated in Iran's 1906 Constitutional Revolution and was shot dead three years later trying to break a siege of Tabriz, where he was buried.
For all who love Iran and love to see an enduring friendship between the Iranian and American people, Frye’s touching request represents a hope in future beyond the present day difficulties. May he live for many more years to come.
Thursday, September 13, 2007
US-Iran Relations Hit a New Low
In the past 24 hours, the US relations with Iran have hit a new low. This morning, the US military accused Iran of backing an Iraqi militia, the Mahdi army of Moqtada al-Sadr, to execute a deadly rocket attack on Camp Victory, the headquarters of US forces in Iraq. A 240mm rocket reportedly supplied by the Iranians hit the base near Baghdad two days ago, September 11, killing one person and injuring a dozen more. This is the most serious incident to date linking the Iranians to a direct military attack on US forces in Iraq.
Linking of Iran to the attack came hours before President Bush was to make a televised address to the American people on the situation in Iraq. The president is expected to identify Iran as a major threat to US forces in Iraq and as the main rationale to maintain significant troop level in the country for the long haul.
General David Petraeus, commander of US forces in Iraq, told reporters at the National Press Club in Washington that arms supplies from Iran, including the 240mm rockets (used in the attack on Camp Victory today), and other explosive devices contributed to a “sophistication of attacks” that would have been impossible without Iranian support. The general went on saying that “the evidence is very, very clear.” (AP).
General Petraeus was not talking about an analysis on Iran’s role in Iraq. He was taking about very clear “evidence.” This is a key phrase in building up the case against Iran.
The US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice also said yesterday that improving security in Iraq now requires having American forces turn to other responsibilities including the territorial security of Iraq with regard to Iran. (NBC Today Show).
The US Ambassador to Iraq Ryan Crocker echoed the sentiment by telling The Washington Post today that Iran is now following a “fairly aggressive strategy” on the ground in Iraq.
The number of statements made by the high ranking military and diplomatic officials against Iran in the past 24 hours combined with an expected harsh and serious statement on Iran by President Bush tonight point to a possible military conflict between the two countries in the near future.
Linking of Iran to the attack came hours before President Bush was to make a televised address to the American people on the situation in Iraq. The president is expected to identify Iran as a major threat to US forces in Iraq and as the main rationale to maintain significant troop level in the country for the long haul.
General David Petraeus, commander of US forces in Iraq, told reporters at the National Press Club in Washington that arms supplies from Iran, including the 240mm rockets (used in the attack on Camp Victory today), and other explosive devices contributed to a “sophistication of attacks” that would have been impossible without Iranian support. The general went on saying that “the evidence is very, very clear.” (AP).
General Petraeus was not talking about an analysis on Iran’s role in Iraq. He was taking about very clear “evidence.” This is a key phrase in building up the case against Iran.
The US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice also said yesterday that improving security in Iraq now requires having American forces turn to other responsibilities including the territorial security of Iraq with regard to Iran. (NBC Today Show).
The US Ambassador to Iraq Ryan Crocker echoed the sentiment by telling The Washington Post today that Iran is now following a “fairly aggressive strategy” on the ground in Iraq.
The number of statements made by the high ranking military and diplomatic officials against Iran in the past 24 hours combined with an expected harsh and serious statement on Iran by President Bush tonight point to a possible military conflict between the two countries in the near future.
Wednesday, September 12, 2007
No to Bomb, Yet Keep Enriching Uranium
Today, in an interview with BBC, President Ahmadinejad said that Iran does not need nuclear weapons and is against having the bomb. His words echo those of the country’s supreme leader. Ayatollah Khamenei said last Sunday in a meeting with the commanders and the officers of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corp. (IRGC) that “Iran has no bomb,” and that “Iran has no plans to create the deadly weapon.”
Why the rush to enrich uranium then? IAEA chief Elbaradei, who lately has been defending Iran’s new approach, today reiterated his call for a double time-out of Iran’s enrichment program and UN sanctions against the country. The Iranian leadership, including Khamenei and Ahmadinejad, has, however, rejected all proposals to suspend uranium enrichment.
With their recent statements on nuclear weapons and their pledge that Iran is not seeking to build the bomb, Khamenei and Ahmadinejad have cornered themselves on the enrichment issue. Let’s suppose the purpose of enrichment is not to make the bomb. We know that the country does not have an operating nuclear reactor, and will not have one for at least another year (for which the Russians will provide nuclear fuel when and if it is built). Then what is with the rush to enrich uranium? Why the rush especially when the country is being isolated in the international arena and it is at a heightened risk of being attacked by the US or Israel or both?
Either Iran’s leaders have delivered statements contrary to Iran’s capabilities and/or intentions, or the country’s leadership is suffering from what I call a Saddam Syndrome. You exaggerate your capabilities to the point of your collapse. Iran is under immense pressure form IAEA chief as well as Russia, China and EU to suspend enrichment now. They can suspend now, and resume activities in a year from now if the reactor is ready and Russia refuses fuel delivery. It does not make sense otherwise.
Why risk everything to produce a fuel that can not be used? The existence of an advanced nuclear weapon program might be the answer.
Why the rush to enrich uranium then? IAEA chief Elbaradei, who lately has been defending Iran’s new approach, today reiterated his call for a double time-out of Iran’s enrichment program and UN sanctions against the country. The Iranian leadership, including Khamenei and Ahmadinejad, has, however, rejected all proposals to suspend uranium enrichment.
With their recent statements on nuclear weapons and their pledge that Iran is not seeking to build the bomb, Khamenei and Ahmadinejad have cornered themselves on the enrichment issue. Let’s suppose the purpose of enrichment is not to make the bomb. We know that the country does not have an operating nuclear reactor, and will not have one for at least another year (for which the Russians will provide nuclear fuel when and if it is built). Then what is with the rush to enrich uranium? Why the rush especially when the country is being isolated in the international arena and it is at a heightened risk of being attacked by the US or Israel or both?
Either Iran’s leaders have delivered statements contrary to Iran’s capabilities and/or intentions, or the country’s leadership is suffering from what I call a Saddam Syndrome. You exaggerate your capabilities to the point of your collapse. Iran is under immense pressure form IAEA chief as well as Russia, China and EU to suspend enrichment now. They can suspend now, and resume activities in a year from now if the reactor is ready and Russia refuses fuel delivery. It does not make sense otherwise.
Why risk everything to produce a fuel that can not be used? The existence of an advanced nuclear weapon program might be the answer.
Tuesday, September 11, 2007
News from Iran
The country’s nuclear program and its continued standoff with the West dominated the coverage in the Iranian media. Iran’s supreme leader addressing the commanders of the Revolutionary Guards said that Iran does not have an atomic bomb and it does not intend to build one. It was for the first time that the country’s leader so emphatically has declared that Iran has no nuclear weapons. The venue in which Khamenei made the declaration was also significant. The IRGC is in charge of Iran’s nuclear program and would control any nuclear weapons. The Iranian leaders, including Khamenei, rejected calls however to suspend the country’s enrichment program. In the absence of any operating nuclear reactor, and with Khamenie’s pledge that the country was not seeking to build an atomic bomb, it was not clear why then Iran was continuing its production of enriched uranium. On regional developments, Iran raised the possibility of a military intrusion inside Iraq to pursue anti-government Iranian Kurdish groups who are launching their attacks on Iranian military positions from inside Iraq. On domestic front, Ayatollah Khamenie in an unusually blunt language warned the Iranian press against covering issues related to last week’s victory of Hashemi Rafsanjani to become the new speaker of the assembly of experts. Rafsanjani defeated the candidate of the hardliners in the assembly. The moderate and reformist press saw the results a defeat for Ahmadinejad and fundamentalists.
Iran’s Nuclear Program
· Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said that the country has no plans to build a nuclear bomb; speaking to the commanders and the officers of Islamic Revolution Guards Corp. (IRGC), Khamenei said “Iran has no atomic bomb”; he added that Iran “has no plans to build the deadly weapon.”
· Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei pledged that Iran would not give in to Western pressure over its nuclear program; Khamenei said that Iran would defeat its “drunken and arrogant” opponents.
· President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said Iran would not negotiate with anyone over its nuclear program; Ahmadinejad warned the countriy’s “enemies” that “Iran is not about to retreat”; Ahmadinejad also called the country a “nuclear Iran.”
· IAEA chief Mohammad ElBaradei walked out of an IAEA meeting to protest EU’s harsh language describing his recent agreement with Iran over its nuclear program; ElBaradei’s agreement with Iran established a timetable for Iran to answer all outstanding questions regarding its nuclear program; Iranian officials had praised IAEA for its ‘correct” approach to the nuclear standoff; the Europeans warn that the agreement with Iran will give the country time to continue enriching uranium.
· IAEA chief Mohammad ElBaradei, addressing the agency’s board of governors, thanked Iran for taking a step in the right direction in agreeing to a timeline to clarify outstanding questions; the IAEA chief added that Iran must go beyond the limited UN plan for transparency and allows wider-ranging inspections; ElBaradei also called on Iran to suspend it uranium enrichment program as demanded by the UN Security Council.
· Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator, Ali Larijani, told the state television network that it is impossible for Iran to suspend uranium enrichment activities; Larijani said even further UNSC sanctions will not change Iran’s stance.
· The director of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization (IAEO) Gholam Reza Aghazadeh said Iran has 15 tons of heavy water reserves in its nuclear facility in Arak; the IAEO chief said the heavy water reserves would be used for a 40 MW research reactor under construction in Arak.
Iran-US Relations
· US military commander in Iraq, Gen. David Petraeus, said the US military is involved in a proxy war with the Iranians inside Iraq; he accused Iran’s Revolutionary Guards units of training Iraqi militias to fight against the coalition forces and the Iraqi state.
· Iran’s deputy foreign minister, Mohammad Reza Bagheri, accused the US of backing PJAK, an Iranian Kurdish group considered terrorist by Iran; Bagheri said that PJAK has launched military attacks on Iranian military from its base inside Iraq; he called any US support of PJAK “dangerous”; Bagheri warned Iraq that if such attacks continues, Iran might be forced to send its military across border in pursuit of PJAK militants; he added that Iran expects the Iraqi government to do what it can to stop PJAK from using Iraqi territory to launch attacks against Iran.
· Iran’s deputy foreign minister, Mohammad Reza Bagheri, and Iran’s ambassador to Baghdad, Hassan Kazemi Qumi, headed the Iranian delegation in the Baghdad conference on Iraqi security; Qomi ruled out any direct talks with the US representatives to the Baghdad conference.
· The US is establishing a military base in Iraq near the Iranian border.
· Iran’s new commander of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corp. (IRGC), Maj. Gen. Mohammad Ali Aziz Jafari, said Iran will respond “harshly” if attacked; Gen. Jafari added that the IRGC was ready for an “elaborate plan to confront any US threats”; the IRGC commander said that Iran has “discovered” all the “weaknesses” of the US forces in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Leading Domestic Storylines
· Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei warned the Iranian media not to cover issues related to last week’s elections in the Assembly of Experts; the unusual warning came during Khamenei’s meeting with the members of the Assembly of Experts; Leading reformist newspapers had carried large pictures of Hashemi Rafsanjani who was chosen as the new speaker of the assembly; the reformist press called Rafsanjani’s selection a victory for the moderates and a defeat for Ahmadinejad and fundamentalists.
· Former president Hashemi Rafsanjani was chosen to head the assembly of Experts; the powerful body has responsibility over the country's supreme leader; Rafsanjani won over his rival, Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati, by a vote of 41-34; there are currently 85 voting members in the Assembly; the election for the speaker became necessary after former speaker, ayatollah Meshkini, passed away in July.
· Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad canceled his scheduled appearance on state TV network on 11 September; Ahmadinejad was scheduled to discuss political and foreign policy issues; the president’s office did not offer the reason for the cancellation.
Leading Regional Storylines
· The Israeli jets broke the sound barrier flying over northern Syria before heading back to Israel; Israel's air force may have been testing an air path over Syria for future attack on Iran; the corridor of northern Syria over which the aircraft flew is the closest straight line from the Mediterranean Sea to Iran.
· Iranian Foreign Minister Manuchehr Mottaki arrived in Moscow; Mottaki will discuss Iran’s nuclear program and bilateral issues with his Russian counterpart; a timetable for the construction of Bushehr nuclear plant, being built by Russian in the southern Iranian city, would be discussed.
Iran’s Nuclear Program
· Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei said that the country has no plans to build a nuclear bomb; speaking to the commanders and the officers of Islamic Revolution Guards Corp. (IRGC), Khamenei said “Iran has no atomic bomb”; he added that Iran “has no plans to build the deadly weapon.”
· Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei pledged that Iran would not give in to Western pressure over its nuclear program; Khamenei said that Iran would defeat its “drunken and arrogant” opponents.
· President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said Iran would not negotiate with anyone over its nuclear program; Ahmadinejad warned the countriy’s “enemies” that “Iran is not about to retreat”; Ahmadinejad also called the country a “nuclear Iran.”
· IAEA chief Mohammad ElBaradei walked out of an IAEA meeting to protest EU’s harsh language describing his recent agreement with Iran over its nuclear program; ElBaradei’s agreement with Iran established a timetable for Iran to answer all outstanding questions regarding its nuclear program; Iranian officials had praised IAEA for its ‘correct” approach to the nuclear standoff; the Europeans warn that the agreement with Iran will give the country time to continue enriching uranium.
· IAEA chief Mohammad ElBaradei, addressing the agency’s board of governors, thanked Iran for taking a step in the right direction in agreeing to a timeline to clarify outstanding questions; the IAEA chief added that Iran must go beyond the limited UN plan for transparency and allows wider-ranging inspections; ElBaradei also called on Iran to suspend it uranium enrichment program as demanded by the UN Security Council.
· Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator, Ali Larijani, told the state television network that it is impossible for Iran to suspend uranium enrichment activities; Larijani said even further UNSC sanctions will not change Iran’s stance.
· The director of Iran's Atomic Energy Organization (IAEO) Gholam Reza Aghazadeh said Iran has 15 tons of heavy water reserves in its nuclear facility in Arak; the IAEO chief said the heavy water reserves would be used for a 40 MW research reactor under construction in Arak.
Iran-US Relations
· US military commander in Iraq, Gen. David Petraeus, said the US military is involved in a proxy war with the Iranians inside Iraq; he accused Iran’s Revolutionary Guards units of training Iraqi militias to fight against the coalition forces and the Iraqi state.
· Iran’s deputy foreign minister, Mohammad Reza Bagheri, accused the US of backing PJAK, an Iranian Kurdish group considered terrorist by Iran; Bagheri said that PJAK has launched military attacks on Iranian military from its base inside Iraq; he called any US support of PJAK “dangerous”; Bagheri warned Iraq that if such attacks continues, Iran might be forced to send its military across border in pursuit of PJAK militants; he added that Iran expects the Iraqi government to do what it can to stop PJAK from using Iraqi territory to launch attacks against Iran.
· Iran’s deputy foreign minister, Mohammad Reza Bagheri, and Iran’s ambassador to Baghdad, Hassan Kazemi Qumi, headed the Iranian delegation in the Baghdad conference on Iraqi security; Qomi ruled out any direct talks with the US representatives to the Baghdad conference.
· The US is establishing a military base in Iraq near the Iranian border.
· Iran’s new commander of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corp. (IRGC), Maj. Gen. Mohammad Ali Aziz Jafari, said Iran will respond “harshly” if attacked; Gen. Jafari added that the IRGC was ready for an “elaborate plan to confront any US threats”; the IRGC commander said that Iran has “discovered” all the “weaknesses” of the US forces in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Leading Domestic Storylines
· Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei warned the Iranian media not to cover issues related to last week’s elections in the Assembly of Experts; the unusual warning came during Khamenei’s meeting with the members of the Assembly of Experts; Leading reformist newspapers had carried large pictures of Hashemi Rafsanjani who was chosen as the new speaker of the assembly; the reformist press called Rafsanjani’s selection a victory for the moderates and a defeat for Ahmadinejad and fundamentalists.
· Former president Hashemi Rafsanjani was chosen to head the assembly of Experts; the powerful body has responsibility over the country's supreme leader; Rafsanjani won over his rival, Ayatollah Ahmad Jannati, by a vote of 41-34; there are currently 85 voting members in the Assembly; the election for the speaker became necessary after former speaker, ayatollah Meshkini, passed away in July.
· Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad canceled his scheduled appearance on state TV network on 11 September; Ahmadinejad was scheduled to discuss political and foreign policy issues; the president’s office did not offer the reason for the cancellation.
Leading Regional Storylines
· The Israeli jets broke the sound barrier flying over northern Syria before heading back to Israel; Israel's air force may have been testing an air path over Syria for future attack on Iran; the corridor of northern Syria over which the aircraft flew is the closest straight line from the Mediterranean Sea to Iran.
· Iranian Foreign Minister Manuchehr Mottaki arrived in Moscow; Mottaki will discuss Iran’s nuclear program and bilateral issues with his Russian counterpart; a timetable for the construction of Bushehr nuclear plant, being built by Russian in the southern Iranian city, would be discussed.
Monday, September 10, 2007
ElBaradei Calls on Iran to Suspend Enrichment
IAEA director-general Mohamed ElBaradei, addressing the agency’s board of governors today, thanked Iran for taking a step in the right direction in agreeing to a timeline to clarify outstanding questions, but said Iran must go beyond the limited UN plan for transparency and allows wider-ranging inspections. More importantly, ElBaradei called on Iran to suspend it uranium enrichment program as demanded by the UN Security Council.
Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator, Ali Larijani, told the state television network that it is impossible for Iran to suspend uranium enrichment activities. Larijani said even further UNSC sanctions will not change Iran’s stance.
Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator, Ali Larijani, told the state television network that it is impossible for Iran to suspend uranium enrichment activities. Larijani said even further UNSC sanctions will not change Iran’s stance.
Sunday, September 9, 2007
Khamenei: No to a Nuclear Iran
Iran’s Supreme Leader said today that the country has no plans to build a nuclear bomb. Khamenei, speaking to the commanders and the officers of Islamic Revolution Guards Corp. (IRGC), said “Iran has no atomic bomb” and “has no plans to create the deadly weapon” (Fars News Agency).
Iran analyst point out that this is the very first time that Ayatollah Khamenei has so emphatically and without any reservations has declared that Iran has no nuclear weapons. The venue in which Khamenei made the declaration is also significant. The IRGC is in charge of Iran’s nuclear program and would have controlled any nuclear weapons.
Meanwhile, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said today that Iran would not negotiate with anyone over its nuclear program. IRNA quoted Ahmadinejad as also saying, “Enemies of this nation should know that Iran is not about to retreat.” Ahmadinejad has also repeatedly called the country a “nuclear Iran.”
Khamenei had also pledged last Monday that Iran would not give in to Western pressure over its nuclear program and would defeat its “drunken and arrogant” opponents (Fars News Agency).
The Iranian leadership has cornered itself to an unsustainable position. Khamenei declares that the country has no atomic bomb and has no intentions to make one. Yet they are ready to isolate the country internationally and to risk a devastating armed conflict with the West over local production of enriched uranium. It does not make any sense. They do not have even a single nuclear reactor in operation, and they are not planning to make bombs either. Why the need to enrich uranium then?
If it is true that Iran does not intend to make any nuclear weapons, and knowing that the country will not have any operational nuclear reactor for at least another year, and knowing that Russia is contractually bound to provide the nuclear fuel needed for the sole reactor under construction, then all the bravados of the leaders in the Islamic Republic which is bringing the country to the verge of a loosing military conflict looks eerily like Saddam’s behavior.
Iran analyst point out that this is the very first time that Ayatollah Khamenei has so emphatically and without any reservations has declared that Iran has no nuclear weapons. The venue in which Khamenei made the declaration is also significant. The IRGC is in charge of Iran’s nuclear program and would have controlled any nuclear weapons.
Meanwhile, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said today that Iran would not negotiate with anyone over its nuclear program. IRNA quoted Ahmadinejad as also saying, “Enemies of this nation should know that Iran is not about to retreat.” Ahmadinejad has also repeatedly called the country a “nuclear Iran.”
Khamenei had also pledged last Monday that Iran would not give in to Western pressure over its nuclear program and would defeat its “drunken and arrogant” opponents (Fars News Agency).
The Iranian leadership has cornered itself to an unsustainable position. Khamenei declares that the country has no atomic bomb and has no intentions to make one. Yet they are ready to isolate the country internationally and to risk a devastating armed conflict with the West over local production of enriched uranium. It does not make any sense. They do not have even a single nuclear reactor in operation, and they are not planning to make bombs either. Why the need to enrich uranium then?
If it is true that Iran does not intend to make any nuclear weapons, and knowing that the country will not have any operational nuclear reactor for at least another year, and knowing that Russia is contractually bound to provide the nuclear fuel needed for the sole reactor under construction, then all the bravados of the leaders in the Islamic Republic which is bringing the country to the verge of a loosing military conflict looks eerily like Saddam’s behavior.
Saturday, September 8, 2007
Israeli Jets Reportedly Practicing Attack on Iran
Last Thursday, the official Syrian Arab News Agency reported that Israeli jets had broken the sound barrier flying over northern Syria before heading back to Israel. Today, the Military.com reports that Israel's air force may have been testing an air path to Iran.
The corridor of northern Syria over which the aircraft allegedly flew is the closest straight line from the Mediterranean Sea to Iran. Military.com quotes the Israeli analyst Ephraim Inbar as saying that Israel wants to let the Americans to do the attacking. If left alone, Inbar says, the Israeli military is preparing to deal with the Iranian nuclear threat. Flying over northern Syria could have been a part of that, he added.
The corridor of northern Syria over which the aircraft allegedly flew is the closest straight line from the Mediterranean Sea to Iran. Military.com quotes the Israeli analyst Ephraim Inbar as saying that Israel wants to let the Americans to do the attacking. If left alone, Inbar says, the Israeli military is preparing to deal with the Iranian nuclear threat. Flying over northern Syria could have been a part of that, he added.
Khamenei and the Assembly of Experts Elections
Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Islamic Republic’s Supreme Leader, warned the Iranian media not to cover issues related to Tuesday’s elections in the Assembly of Experts and Rafsanjan’s victory over Jannati. The unusual and extremely blunt warning came during Khamenei’s meeting with the members of the Assembly of Experts last Thursday (Baztab).
The moderate and reformist newspapers carried large pictures of Rafsanjani in their coverage of the elections and generally interpreted the result as a victory of the moderates over fundamentalist supporters of President Ahmadinejad. The Supreme Leader called these papers “local media with bad manners.” Khamenie accused them of repeating the enemy’s propaganda. Iran analysts now wonder if having a “bad manner” is an offense in Iran, what the punishment is, does it also cover political figures, and how bad should one’s manner be to get into trouble.
Rafsanjani now heads the Assembly of Experts and the Expediency Council. Ahmadinejad is under attack for his miserable economic policies and the growing international isolation of Iran, and the cash flow from the high oil prices can not resolve all the problems. Hence Khamenei’s worries: a growing influence of Rafsanjani and the moderates and an ending to fundamentalists’ monopoly of power. Khamenei must believe that fundamentalists' problem if not covered by the press would disappear.
The moderate and reformist newspapers carried large pictures of Rafsanjani in their coverage of the elections and generally interpreted the result as a victory of the moderates over fundamentalist supporters of President Ahmadinejad. The Supreme Leader called these papers “local media with bad manners.” Khamenie accused them of repeating the enemy’s propaganda. Iran analysts now wonder if having a “bad manner” is an offense in Iran, what the punishment is, does it also cover political figures, and how bad should one’s manner be to get into trouble.
Rafsanjani now heads the Assembly of Experts and the Expediency Council. Ahmadinejad is under attack for his miserable economic policies and the growing international isolation of Iran, and the cash flow from the high oil prices can not resolve all the problems. Hence Khamenei’s worries: a growing influence of Rafsanjani and the moderates and an ending to fundamentalists’ monopoly of power. Khamenei must believe that fundamentalists' problem if not covered by the press would disappear.
Chomsky on US Attack on Iran
Alexander Cockburn, the editor of CounterPunch, writing in this weekend’s edition, asks the question, Will the US Really Bomb Iran? He says that one has to be foolish to bet that an attack on Iran won’t happen. He recalls an email he sent to Noam Chomsky last week asking him if he was still dubious about the likelihood of a US attack. Here’s Chomsky’s response to Cockburn as it appears today in CounterPunch.
“Yes, I was quite skeptical. Less so over the years. They're desperate. Everything they touch is in ruins. They're even in danger of losing control over Middle Eastern oil -- to China, the topic that's rarely discussed but is on every planner or corporation exec's mind, if they're sane. Iran already has observer status at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization -- from which the US was pointedly excluded. Chinese trade with Saudi Arabia, even military sales, is growing fast. With the Bush administration in danger of losing Shiite Iraq, where most of the oil is (and most Saudi oil in regions with a harshly oppressed Shiite population), they may be in real trouble.
Under these circumstances, they're unpredictable. They might go for broke, and hope they can salvage something from the wreckage. If they do bomb, I suspect it will be accompanied by a ground assault in Khuzestan, near the Gulf, where the oil is (and an Arab population -- there already is an Ahwazi liberation front, probably organized by the CIA, which the US can "defend" from the evil Persians), and then they can bomb the rest of the country to rubble. And show who's boss.”
“Yes, I was quite skeptical. Less so over the years. They're desperate. Everything they touch is in ruins. They're even in danger of losing control over Middle Eastern oil -- to China, the topic that's rarely discussed but is on every planner or corporation exec's mind, if they're sane. Iran already has observer status at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization -- from which the US was pointedly excluded. Chinese trade with Saudi Arabia, even military sales, is growing fast. With the Bush administration in danger of losing Shiite Iraq, where most of the oil is (and most Saudi oil in regions with a harshly oppressed Shiite population), they may be in real trouble.
Under these circumstances, they're unpredictable. They might go for broke, and hope they can salvage something from the wreckage. If they do bomb, I suspect it will be accompanied by a ground assault in Khuzestan, near the Gulf, where the oil is (and an Arab population -- there already is an Ahwazi liberation front, probably organized by the CIA, which the US can "defend" from the evil Persians), and then they can bomb the rest of the country to rubble. And show who's boss.”
Wednesday, September 5, 2007
Rafsanjani 1 – Ahmadinejad 0; Two Matches Left
The Assembly of Experts in Session. Tehran, 4 September 2007. (Mehr News)Former president Hashemi Rafsanjani was chosen to head the powerful and secretive clerical body that has responsibility over the country's supreme leader. Rafsanjani received 41 votes to become the new speaker of the assembly of experts. His opponent received 34 votes. The assembly has 85 current members. Ten ayatollahs must have been either absent or not participating in the vote. The assembly of experts chooses the supreme leader and theoretically supervises his work and can remove him from power.
The elections season began early in Iran. Ayatollah Meshkini who headed the all-powerful and secretive Assembly of Experts throughout the history of the Islamic Republic passed away in July and the ruling senior clerics were forced to make an unscheduled selection between the main warring factions in today’s Iran: moderate and reformist in one camp and the radical fundamentalists in another.
The traditional conservatives, the third camp once enjoying unlimited power in the country, but nowadays reduced to a club of aging, albeit influential, ayatollahs had to act as the kingmakers. The Assembly of Experts’ members are senior clerics with an average age higher than the number of ayatollahs eligible to vote in the Assembly: 85. They were faced with a real selection: Hashemi Rafsanjani, the maverick survivor of the Iranian politics, who these days has become a champion of the moderates and the reformists, and Jenatti, thrown into the ring at the eleventh hour after the radical fundamentalists realized that their original candidate, Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi, the spiritual guru of President Ahmadinejad, would not get the support of the assembly.
41 of the ayatollahs supported Rafsanjani, 35 supported Jenatti. In the larger scheme of things, the result was immediately translated to a victory for the moderates and reformists, headed by Rafsanjani, and a defeat for radical fundamentalists headed by Ahmadinejad: Rafsanjani 1 – Ahmadinejad 0. Two important matches, however, are yet to be played: the March 2008 parliamentary elections and the May 2009 presidential elections.
The two camps will be at war contesting both. The Assembly of Experts victory should not be generalized as a sure sign of victory for the moderates in those upcoming elections. The assembly was loaded with ayatollahs whose very secure positions in the Iranian society combined with their very advanced age scares them of the politics of the radical fundamentalists constantly after creating tensions, conflicts and wars. These ayatollahs want to be left alone to run their own beits, collect millions of dollars every year from the Shia fateful and the Islamic Republic institutions, and they are in no mood to rock the boat.
The general population voting in the two upcoming elections is different. Iran’s growing isolation in the world arena and the worsening economic situation, partly caused by the country’s isolation, should bode well for the opposition and should change the composition of the Majlis and the occupant of the Marmar Palace, formerly the shah’s and now the seat of the Iranian presidency. The government and its radical supporters, however, control the cash flow from the considerable rise in the country’s oil exports. Their free-wheeling spending might make a 20% inflation rate even worst, but might still buy lots of votes.
The elections season began early in Iran. Ayatollah Meshkini who headed the all-powerful and secretive Assembly of Experts throughout the history of the Islamic Republic passed away in July and the ruling senior clerics were forced to make an unscheduled selection between the main warring factions in today’s Iran: moderate and reformist in one camp and the radical fundamentalists in another.
The traditional conservatives, the third camp once enjoying unlimited power in the country, but nowadays reduced to a club of aging, albeit influential, ayatollahs had to act as the kingmakers. The Assembly of Experts’ members are senior clerics with an average age higher than the number of ayatollahs eligible to vote in the Assembly: 85. They were faced with a real selection: Hashemi Rafsanjani, the maverick survivor of the Iranian politics, who these days has become a champion of the moderates and the reformists, and Jenatti, thrown into the ring at the eleventh hour after the radical fundamentalists realized that their original candidate, Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi, the spiritual guru of President Ahmadinejad, would not get the support of the assembly.
41 of the ayatollahs supported Rafsanjani, 35 supported Jenatti. In the larger scheme of things, the result was immediately translated to a victory for the moderates and reformists, headed by Rafsanjani, and a defeat for radical fundamentalists headed by Ahmadinejad: Rafsanjani 1 – Ahmadinejad 0. Two important matches, however, are yet to be played: the March 2008 parliamentary elections and the May 2009 presidential elections.
The two camps will be at war contesting both. The Assembly of Experts victory should not be generalized as a sure sign of victory for the moderates in those upcoming elections. The assembly was loaded with ayatollahs whose very secure positions in the Iranian society combined with their very advanced age scares them of the politics of the radical fundamentalists constantly after creating tensions, conflicts and wars. These ayatollahs want to be left alone to run their own beits, collect millions of dollars every year from the Shia fateful and the Islamic Republic institutions, and they are in no mood to rock the boat.
The general population voting in the two upcoming elections is different. Iran’s growing isolation in the world arena and the worsening economic situation, partly caused by the country’s isolation, should bode well for the opposition and should change the composition of the Majlis and the occupant of the Marmar Palace, formerly the shah’s and now the seat of the Iranian presidency. The government and its radical supporters, however, control the cash flow from the considerable rise in the country’s oil exports. Their free-wheeling spending might make a 20% inflation rate even worst, but might still buy lots of votes.
The struggle for the control of Iran’s government in the next twenty months has just begun.
Tuesday, September 4, 2007
News from Iran
The worsening US-Iran relations dominated the Iranian media coverage. President Bush launched his starkest attack yet on the Islamic Republic, accusing it of threatening to place the Middle East under the shadow of a nuclear holocaust. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said that his “mathematical calculations” has convinced him that it would be impossible for the US to attack Iran; but if attacked Iran will retaliate on a massive scale.
Ahmadinejad also reiterated Iran’s commitment to its uranium enrichment program and revealed that Iran already operated more than 3,000 centrifuges, directly contracting IAEA chief who had said earlier that the Iranian leadership has slowed down its enrichment program to gain politically in the international community.
On domestic front, Ayatollah Hashemi Rafsanjani was chosen to head the all-powerful Assembly of Experts after an all-out effort by the radical fundamentalist supporters of Ahmadinajad could not convince the 86 senior cleric members of the assembly to elect another ayatollah. The political infighting within the Islamic Republic reached its height when Ahmadinejad accused a score of moderate and reformist former officials of treachery and passing up nuclear secrets to foreign powers.
US-Iran Relations
· President Bush launched one of his strongest attacks against the Islamic Republic, accusing it of threatening to place the Middle East under the shadow of a nuclear holocaust; President Bush said he has authorized US military commanders in Iraq to confront Iran’s “murderous activities.”
· Maj. Gen. Yahya Rahim Safavi, who commanded the Islamic Revolution Guards Corp. (IRGC) until last week, warned that a US attack on Iran would unleash a much larger response from the Iranian that expected; Gen. Safavi said Iran would attack US and Israeli positions and would stop the flow of oil in the Straits of Hormuz.
· Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said that his “mathematical calculations” has convinced him that it would be impossible for the US to attack Iran; Ahmadinejad told a group of students that his training as an engineer enabled him to conduct mathematical calculus and analysis; Ahmadinejad also mentioned his belief in God as his second source of analysis; God said those who move on the correct path will win, Ahmadinejad emphasized.
· Eight Iranian officials, including two diplomats, who were detained by US troops in Baghdad, were released a day later; The Iranians were picked up at their hotel, blindfolded and handcuffed and taken into custody for questioning.
Major Domestic Storylines
· Ayatollah Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani today was chosen by the 86 senior cleric members of the Assembly of Experts to head the powerful body; Rafsanjani, 73, replaces Ali Mehkini who passed away in July; he defeated Ayatollah Ahmad Janatti, the candidate favored by the fundamentalists.
· President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad accused his opponents within the regime of “treachery” for providing the latest news and information on the country’s nuclear program to the Westerners; Ahmadinejad said that as many as eight to ten people might be involved in this treachery.
· The Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenie today removed Maj. Gen. Yahya Safavi from his powerful post as the Commander of Islamic Revolution Guards Corp. (IRGC); the new IRGC commander is Brig. Gen. Mohammad Ali Aziz Jafari; Gen. Jafari was most recently the director of IRGC’s Center for Strategic Studies; previously he commanded IRGC ground forces.
· Haleh Esfandiari, the 67-year old Iranian-American academic who was held at Evin prison for nearly four months and was freed on bail on 21 August, was allowed to leave the country; she arrived in Austria to be reunited with her husband on her way home; latest news indicate that radio farad journalist Nazee Azima is also given her passport and is expected to leave Iran shortly; Kian Tajbakhsh, the other Iranian-American academic in detention reportedly will be released within the next few days; there is no news on the fate of Ali shakeri, the last Iranian-American who has also been detained.
Iran Nuclear Program
· IAEA Chief Mohammad ElBaradei warned Iran of its “last chance” to end the nuclear standoff, by being candid on all aspects of its nuclear program; Iran and IAEA have agreed on a timetable for Iran to clear up outstanding questions on its nuclear activities; IAEA chief said that this is indeed a critical moment for candor.
· President Ahmadinejad announced that Iran already has 3,000 uranium enriching centrifuges in operation at Natanz; the statement contradicted an assessment by IAEA Chief Mohammad ElBaradei that Iran has slowed down its enrichment program; Ahmadinejad also said that Iran is brining on line one new cascade (164 centrifuges) every week; the Iranian president has declared Iran’s nuclear case closed.
· Iranian President Ahmadinejad lashed at the warning of French President Nicolas Sarkozy that Iran risked being bombed over its nuclear program saying Sarkozy was still “inexperienced.”
· Iran’s envoy to IAEA, Ali Asghar Soltanieh, said IAEA acted with “professionalism” in setting a timetable for Iran to resolve all previously-unsettled issues regarding the country’s nuclear program; the new timetable agreement between Iran and IAEA is expected to delay any new round of sanctions against Iran at the UN for at least few months.
· Iran announced that it may hire alternative builders to finish its first nuclear power plant at Bushehr if Russia was not willing to complete the project; a Russian contractor had been working on Bushehr project but had suspended its activities over disputes with Iran.
Regional Storylines
· Iranian President Ahmadinejad said a huge power vacuum will be created in Iraq when the US forces leave the country; he said Iran was prepared to fill the gap.
· The influential editor of Keyhan, the conservative Tehran daily officially part of the office of the Supreme Leader, today in an editorial reiterated his views that Bahrain is an integral part of Iran; Hossein Shariatmadari challenged Bahraini leaders to accept a referendum on the issue in the island nation; Shariatmadari claims that the scheduled UN popular referendum in 1971 on the subject of Bahraini independence from Iran was never carried out and instead a group of hand-picked elders close to the current royal family chose independence.
· President Ahmadinejad accused the US of interfering in Iraq’s internal affairs; the Iranian president said any US effort to topple Al Maliki’s government will fail.
· Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini said a large amount of weapons are being smuggled into Iran via Iraq; Hosseini said that terrorists and smugglers take advantage of the situation in Iraq and carry on with their sabotage activities.
· UAE put in place re-export maritime laws to prevent foreign companies exporting to Iran electronic components and devices used in manufacturing explosive devices; US had exerted pressure on UAE government to institute the ban; US has said that these devices are later used to attack US and coalition forces in Iraq and Afghanistan; the preferred venue for re-export to Iran has been the port of Dubai.
· Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), the Kurdish faction headed by Iraqi president Jalal Talabani, is reporting today that Iran has resumed heavy shelling of Iraqi Kurd areas near Iranian borders; Iran contends that the presence in the area of Kurdistan Free Life Party (PJAK), an Iranian Kurdish opposition group, is forcing it to attack the villages in Iraq Kurdistan region; the Kurdish Parliament condemned the shelling and called for an immediate ceasefire.
Ahmadinejad also reiterated Iran’s commitment to its uranium enrichment program and revealed that Iran already operated more than 3,000 centrifuges, directly contracting IAEA chief who had said earlier that the Iranian leadership has slowed down its enrichment program to gain politically in the international community.
On domestic front, Ayatollah Hashemi Rafsanjani was chosen to head the all-powerful Assembly of Experts after an all-out effort by the radical fundamentalist supporters of Ahmadinajad could not convince the 86 senior cleric members of the assembly to elect another ayatollah. The political infighting within the Islamic Republic reached its height when Ahmadinejad accused a score of moderate and reformist former officials of treachery and passing up nuclear secrets to foreign powers.
US-Iran Relations
· President Bush launched one of his strongest attacks against the Islamic Republic, accusing it of threatening to place the Middle East under the shadow of a nuclear holocaust; President Bush said he has authorized US military commanders in Iraq to confront Iran’s “murderous activities.”
· Maj. Gen. Yahya Rahim Safavi, who commanded the Islamic Revolution Guards Corp. (IRGC) until last week, warned that a US attack on Iran would unleash a much larger response from the Iranian that expected; Gen. Safavi said Iran would attack US and Israeli positions and would stop the flow of oil in the Straits of Hormuz.
· Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said that his “mathematical calculations” has convinced him that it would be impossible for the US to attack Iran; Ahmadinejad told a group of students that his training as an engineer enabled him to conduct mathematical calculus and analysis; Ahmadinejad also mentioned his belief in God as his second source of analysis; God said those who move on the correct path will win, Ahmadinejad emphasized.
· Eight Iranian officials, including two diplomats, who were detained by US troops in Baghdad, were released a day later; The Iranians were picked up at their hotel, blindfolded and handcuffed and taken into custody for questioning.
Major Domestic Storylines
· Ayatollah Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani today was chosen by the 86 senior cleric members of the Assembly of Experts to head the powerful body; Rafsanjani, 73, replaces Ali Mehkini who passed away in July; he defeated Ayatollah Ahmad Janatti, the candidate favored by the fundamentalists.
· President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad accused his opponents within the regime of “treachery” for providing the latest news and information on the country’s nuclear program to the Westerners; Ahmadinejad said that as many as eight to ten people might be involved in this treachery.
· The Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenie today removed Maj. Gen. Yahya Safavi from his powerful post as the Commander of Islamic Revolution Guards Corp. (IRGC); the new IRGC commander is Brig. Gen. Mohammad Ali Aziz Jafari; Gen. Jafari was most recently the director of IRGC’s Center for Strategic Studies; previously he commanded IRGC ground forces.
· Haleh Esfandiari, the 67-year old Iranian-American academic who was held at Evin prison for nearly four months and was freed on bail on 21 August, was allowed to leave the country; she arrived in Austria to be reunited with her husband on her way home; latest news indicate that radio farad journalist Nazee Azima is also given her passport and is expected to leave Iran shortly; Kian Tajbakhsh, the other Iranian-American academic in detention reportedly will be released within the next few days; there is no news on the fate of Ali shakeri, the last Iranian-American who has also been detained.
Iran Nuclear Program
· IAEA Chief Mohammad ElBaradei warned Iran of its “last chance” to end the nuclear standoff, by being candid on all aspects of its nuclear program; Iran and IAEA have agreed on a timetable for Iran to clear up outstanding questions on its nuclear activities; IAEA chief said that this is indeed a critical moment for candor.
· President Ahmadinejad announced that Iran already has 3,000 uranium enriching centrifuges in operation at Natanz; the statement contradicted an assessment by IAEA Chief Mohammad ElBaradei that Iran has slowed down its enrichment program; Ahmadinejad also said that Iran is brining on line one new cascade (164 centrifuges) every week; the Iranian president has declared Iran’s nuclear case closed.
· Iranian President Ahmadinejad lashed at the warning of French President Nicolas Sarkozy that Iran risked being bombed over its nuclear program saying Sarkozy was still “inexperienced.”
· Iran’s envoy to IAEA, Ali Asghar Soltanieh, said IAEA acted with “professionalism” in setting a timetable for Iran to resolve all previously-unsettled issues regarding the country’s nuclear program; the new timetable agreement between Iran and IAEA is expected to delay any new round of sanctions against Iran at the UN for at least few months.
· Iran announced that it may hire alternative builders to finish its first nuclear power plant at Bushehr if Russia was not willing to complete the project; a Russian contractor had been working on Bushehr project but had suspended its activities over disputes with Iran.
Regional Storylines
· Iranian President Ahmadinejad said a huge power vacuum will be created in Iraq when the US forces leave the country; he said Iran was prepared to fill the gap.
· The influential editor of Keyhan, the conservative Tehran daily officially part of the office of the Supreme Leader, today in an editorial reiterated his views that Bahrain is an integral part of Iran; Hossein Shariatmadari challenged Bahraini leaders to accept a referendum on the issue in the island nation; Shariatmadari claims that the scheduled UN popular referendum in 1971 on the subject of Bahraini independence from Iran was never carried out and instead a group of hand-picked elders close to the current royal family chose independence.
· President Ahmadinejad accused the US of interfering in Iraq’s internal affairs; the Iranian president said any US effort to topple Al Maliki’s government will fail.
· Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini said a large amount of weapons are being smuggled into Iran via Iraq; Hosseini said that terrorists and smugglers take advantage of the situation in Iraq and carry on with their sabotage activities.
· UAE put in place re-export maritime laws to prevent foreign companies exporting to Iran electronic components and devices used in manufacturing explosive devices; US had exerted pressure on UAE government to institute the ban; US has said that these devices are later used to attack US and coalition forces in Iraq and Afghanistan; the preferred venue for re-export to Iran has been the port of Dubai.
· Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), the Kurdish faction headed by Iraqi president Jalal Talabani, is reporting today that Iran has resumed heavy shelling of Iraqi Kurd areas near Iranian borders; Iran contends that the presence in the area of Kurdistan Free Life Party (PJAK), an Iranian Kurdish opposition group, is forcing it to attack the villages in Iraq Kurdistan region; the Kurdish Parliament condemned the shelling and called for an immediate ceasefire.
Rafsanjani is Victor; Infighting Heats Up!
Ayatollah Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani today was chosen by the 86 senior cleric members of the Assembly of Experts to head the powerful and secretive body.
Rafsanjani, 73, replaces Ali Mehkini who passed away in July. He defeated Ayatollah Ahmad Janatti, the candidate favored by radical fundamentalists.
The fundamentalists originally wanted to have Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi to replace Meshkini. In anticipation of Rafsanjani’s candidacy, they launched an all-out attack on his character in the past couple of weeks. The latest was accusations that Rafsanjani had made up a quote by the late Ayatollah Khomeini to justify his moderate stand on relations with the US. Just in the past few days, they settled on Janatti as having a better chance to stop Rafsanjani. The final tally in today’s selection was kept secret.
At the end the majority of traditionally conservative ayatollahs who make up the bulk of the membership in the assembly sided with Rafsanjani. The fundamentalists’ radical foreign policies which has brought the country to the verge of an armed conflict do not bode well with the conservative clerics who do not wish their secure positions at old age be threatened by conflicts and wars.
The defeat by the fundamentalists today, however, is not the end of the infighting over the course Iran needs to follow during these very sensitive times. The battle for Majlis, with its elections coming up in March, is taking shape.
President Ahmadinejad is already accusing eight to ten of his opponents in the moderate and reformist camp as traitors who have given away Iran’s nuclear secrets to the foreigners. Even with the Machiavellian state of political affairs prevalent in the Islamic Republic, this is considered crossing of a red line, probably beyond repair.
Rafsanjani, 73, replaces Ali Mehkini who passed away in July. He defeated Ayatollah Ahmad Janatti, the candidate favored by radical fundamentalists.
The fundamentalists originally wanted to have Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi to replace Meshkini. In anticipation of Rafsanjani’s candidacy, they launched an all-out attack on his character in the past couple of weeks. The latest was accusations that Rafsanjani had made up a quote by the late Ayatollah Khomeini to justify his moderate stand on relations with the US. Just in the past few days, they settled on Janatti as having a better chance to stop Rafsanjani. The final tally in today’s selection was kept secret.
At the end the majority of traditionally conservative ayatollahs who make up the bulk of the membership in the assembly sided with Rafsanjani. The fundamentalists’ radical foreign policies which has brought the country to the verge of an armed conflict do not bode well with the conservative clerics who do not wish their secure positions at old age be threatened by conflicts and wars.
The defeat by the fundamentalists today, however, is not the end of the infighting over the course Iran needs to follow during these very sensitive times. The battle for Majlis, with its elections coming up in March, is taking shape.
President Ahmadinejad is already accusing eight to ten of his opponents in the moderate and reformist camp as traitors who have given away Iran’s nuclear secrets to the foreigners. Even with the Machiavellian state of political affairs prevalent in the Islamic Republic, this is considered crossing of a red line, probably beyond repair.
Monday, September 3, 2007
Ahmadinejad Reports on Mathematical Calculations
Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said in Tehran yesterday that his mathematical calculations have convinced him that it would be impossible for the US to attack Iran. His remarks were made public today.
Ahmadinejad told a group of students that his training as an engineer enabled him to conduct mathematical calculus and analysis. The enemies will not dare to attack us, he concluded. (Ettemad-e Melli, 3 September).
Ahmadinejad also mentioned his belief in God as his second source of analysis: God said those who move on the correct path will win.
Ahmadinejad has said he would like to do more academic work, presumably in the area of risk assessment for the nation.
Ahmadinejad told a group of students that his training as an engineer enabled him to conduct mathematical calculus and analysis. The enemies will not dare to attack us, he concluded. (Ettemad-e Melli, 3 September).
Ahmadinejad also mentioned his belief in God as his second source of analysis: God said those who move on the correct path will win.
Ahmadinejad has said he would like to do more academic work, presumably in the area of risk assessment for the nation.
Esfandiari is Out of Iran
Haleh Esfandiari, the 67-year old Iranian-American academic who was held at Evin prison for four months and was freed on bail on 21 August, was allowed to leave the country today. She arrived in Austria to be reunited with her husband. She will be coming home next week.
Esfandiari is the head of the Middle East program at Woodrow Wilson Center in Washington. Her detention and forced stay in Iran, along with that of three other Iranian-Americans, had generated universal disapproval and protests. It is not known if the government would follow up with the release of other Iranian-Americans.
Esfandiari is the head of the Middle East program at Woodrow Wilson Center in Washington. Her detention and forced stay in Iran, along with that of three other Iranian-Americans, had generated universal disapproval and protests. It is not known if the government would follow up with the release of other Iranian-Americans.
Correction
In my September 1 post “IRGC Commander Sacked. Why?” I had stated that the new commander, Gen. Mohammad Ali Aziz Jafari, had attended a recent meeting in Sharm Al Sheikh along with Iran’s foreign minister. That is not the case; it was another person with the same name, working as a deputy director for Iran’s supreme national security council, who had attended the meeting. My apologies to my readers for the confusion this might have caused.
My analysis of the reason for the change of command at IRGC is not affected by this error. Today the government-owned broadcasting system asserted that the change in command was “routine.” Gen. Jafari is only the third IRGC commander in the past 26 years. This is not a routine rotation of military personnel.
My analysis of the reason for the change of command at IRGC is not affected by this error. Today the government-owned broadcasting system asserted that the change in command was “routine.” Gen. Jafari is only the third IRGC commander in the past 26 years. This is not a routine rotation of military personnel.
Sunday, September 2, 2007
2,000 or 3,000 or More!
IAEA Chief Mohammad ElBaradei last week hailed Iran’s cooperation with the agency and reported that only 2,000 centrifuges were operational at Natanz. ElBaradei said his hunch was that slow down in the enrichment program was an Iranian deliberate plan to gain politically in the international arena. ElBaradei seemed to be real happy with what the Iranian leaders had told him this time.
Today, Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini also hailed ElBaradei’s report as a victory for Iran’s nuclear program.
Hours later, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad told a press conference that Iran has put into operation over 3,000 uranium enrichment centrifuges at Natanz! (IRNA, 2 September). He also said that Iran is adding one new centrifuge cascade (164 centrifuges) every week to the 3,000 centrifuges already in operation.
ElBaradei must not have believed his ears listening to Ahmadinejad’s proclamation only days after he hailed the Iranian leaders for their moderation and cooperation over the nuclear issue. Welcome to politics, Islamic Republic style, Mr. ElBaradei!
Today, Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini also hailed ElBaradei’s report as a victory for Iran’s nuclear program.
Hours later, President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad told a press conference that Iran has put into operation over 3,000 uranium enrichment centrifuges at Natanz! (IRNA, 2 September). He also said that Iran is adding one new centrifuge cascade (164 centrifuges) every week to the 3,000 centrifuges already in operation.
ElBaradei must not have believed his ears listening to Ahmadinejad’s proclamation only days after he hailed the Iranian leaders for their moderation and cooperation over the nuclear issue. Welcome to politics, Islamic Republic style, Mr. ElBaradei!
Ahmadinejad Accuses Opponents of Treachery Over Nuclear Secrets
This blogger wrote here yesterday that the reports circulating in Tehran point to a serious breach of security at the highest levels of the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) as the reson behind the change of command in the all-powerful organization. The existence of the Green Salt Project, reportedly IRGC’s nuclear weapon program, had been compromised and the US had shared the information with the IAEA.
President Ahmadinejad, during his press conference in Tehran today, referred to the “treachery of some people inside the country on the nuclear issue.” (Fars News Agency, 2 September). He, however, pointed his finger to a large number of his opponents within the country’s establishment.
“These people were not just one or two individuals but eight to ten people,” Ahmadinejad said of the people involved in the security breach. These people “think only they can run the country and whose newspapers are filled with foul languages everyday. They were transferring the latest news and information and were telling the Westerners that they should exert as much pressure as possible.” (Fars News Agency, 2 September).
Ahmadinejad is accusing a large number of presumably former government officials (“those who think only they can run the government”) of high treason. The president is using a security breach within the IRGC to launch an unprecedented attack on his opponents within the regime only months prior to the parliamentary elections. We should expect the hard-line Guardian Council to disqualify former high-ranking officials from the reformist and moderate camps from running in the Majlis elections on charges of “treachery.” We are indeed witnessing an emerging picture of a regime in disarray.
President Ahmadinejad, during his press conference in Tehran today, referred to the “treachery of some people inside the country on the nuclear issue.” (Fars News Agency, 2 September). He, however, pointed his finger to a large number of his opponents within the country’s establishment.
“These people were not just one or two individuals but eight to ten people,” Ahmadinejad said of the people involved in the security breach. These people “think only they can run the country and whose newspapers are filled with foul languages everyday. They were transferring the latest news and information and were telling the Westerners that they should exert as much pressure as possible.” (Fars News Agency, 2 September).
Ahmadinejad is accusing a large number of presumably former government officials (“those who think only they can run the government”) of high treason. The president is using a security breach within the IRGC to launch an unprecedented attack on his opponents within the regime only months prior to the parliamentary elections. We should expect the hard-line Guardian Council to disqualify former high-ranking officials from the reformist and moderate camps from running in the Majlis elections on charges of “treachery.” We are indeed witnessing an emerging picture of a regime in disarray.
Saturday, September 1, 2007
IRGC Commander Sacked. Why?
Gen. Safavi (left) and Gen. JafariThe outgoing and the new commander of IRGC
(Press TV Photo)
The Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenie today removed Maj. Gen. Yahya Safavi from his powerful post as the Commander of Islamic Revolution Guards Corp. (IRGC). Reports circulating in Tehran point to a security breakdown at IRGC as the main reason for the command change. A laptop computer with highest compartmental security clrearance access requirement had apparently been stolen in Iran recently containing sensitive information on Iran’s Green Salt Project.
The US intelligence officials have provided the IAEA the evidence that Green Salt involves uranium processing, presumably the production of uranium metal which is the core of atomic bombs, as well as the production of high explosives and missile warheads which together would make up the structure of an advanced nuclear weapon program.
The new IRGC commander is Brig. Gen. Mohammad Ali Aziz Jafari. Gen. Jafari was most recently the director of IRGC’s Center for Strategic Studies. Previously he commanded IRGC ground forces.
Gen. Safavi, the outgoing IRGC commander, was named in the UN Security Council resolution 1737, passed in December 2006, requiring member nations to freeze his assets for his involvement in Iran’s nuclear and missile programs.
IAEA Chief Warns Iran
IAEA Chief Mohammad ElBaradei today cautioned Iran against wasting “a great chance, perhaps the last chance” to end the nuclear standoff. (AP). Iran and IAEA have agreed on a timetable for Iran to clear up outstanding questions on its nuclear activities.
US intelligence officials have provided IAEA information on an Iranian secret project code-named the Green Salt Project. According to a report published yesterday in The New York Times, Green Salt involves uranium processing, presumably production of uranium metal which is the core of an atomic bomb, as well as production of high explosives and missile warhead. Together, Green Salt if proven to exist would be Iran’s project for building nuclear weapons.
IAEA also wants to know how the Iranians acquired the skill to build two different types of centrifuges, the so-called P-1 and P-2. The centrifuges are used to enrich uranium. Highly enriched uranium (HEU) can then be processed to produce uranium metal.
Iran has always claimed that its nuclear program is for production of electricity. But for nearly 20 years, Iran had consistently misled IAEA and has obstructed the work of its inspectors. Now IAEA chief is telling the Iranians that this is indeed a critical moment for candor.
French President Nicolas Sarkozy was more blunt in his assessment this week if the Iranians could not gain the trust of the international community. The alternative, he said, would be “catastrophic: an Iranian bomb or the bombing of Iran.”
US intelligence officials have provided IAEA information on an Iranian secret project code-named the Green Salt Project. According to a report published yesterday in The New York Times, Green Salt involves uranium processing, presumably production of uranium metal which is the core of an atomic bomb, as well as production of high explosives and missile warhead. Together, Green Salt if proven to exist would be Iran’s project for building nuclear weapons.
IAEA also wants to know how the Iranians acquired the skill to build two different types of centrifuges, the so-called P-1 and P-2. The centrifuges are used to enrich uranium. Highly enriched uranium (HEU) can then be processed to produce uranium metal.
Iran has always claimed that its nuclear program is for production of electricity. But for nearly 20 years, Iran had consistently misled IAEA and has obstructed the work of its inspectors. Now IAEA chief is telling the Iranians that this is indeed a critical moment for candor.
French President Nicolas Sarkozy was more blunt in his assessment this week if the Iranians could not gain the trust of the international community. The alternative, he said, would be “catastrophic: an Iranian bomb or the bombing of Iran.”
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