Clapper On Iran’s Involvement in Syria

In his Statement for the Record on Worldwide Threat Assessment, Director of National Intelligence James Clapper discussed the situation in Syria and Iran’s involvement in that country’s civil war. We have posted his comments onIran’s nuclear and missile program, and below are the text of his remarks on Iran and Hezbollah in Syria.

“In Syria, the ongoing civil war will probably heightened regional and sectarian tensions. Syria has become a proxy battle between Iran and Lebanese Hizballah on one side and Sunni Arab states on the other. Fear of spillover has exacerbated sectarian tensions in Iraq and Lebanon and will add to the unrest. The influx of over two million Syrian refugees into neighboring countries will continue to impose hardship, particularly on Jordan and Lebanon.

Iran and Hizballah are committed to defending the Assad regime and have provided support toward this end, including sending billions of dollars in military and economic aid, training pro-regime and Iraqi Shia militias, and deploying their own personnel into the country. Iran and Hizbollah view the Assad regime as a key partner in the “axis of resistance” against Israel and are prepared to take major risks to preserve the regime as well as their critical transshipment routes.

Outside of the Syrian theater, Iran and Lebanese Hizballah continue to directly threaten the interests of US allies. Hizballah has increased its global terrorist activity in recent years to the level that we have not seen since the 1990s.”

File photo: Syrian soldiers (AFP)

Iraq's PM says US arms against Syria supports terrorism in Iraq

 

According to PressTV:

Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki has called on the United States and its allies to stop providing weapons to the militants in Syria.

On Wednesday, the Iraqi prime minister said providing the foreign-backed militant groups in Syria with arms could further ignite violence in its neighbor, Iraq.

“I am appealing to the countries that talked about supporting armed groups in Syria with weapons. I tell them, you are supporting terrorism in Iraq,” Maliki stated in his weekly televised speech.

No doubt Iraqi military and security officials are keenly aware that U.S. arms shipments to so-called "moderate" groups fighting against Syria indirectly assist Al-Qaeda affiliated forces in both Syria and Iraq.

With more pressure on Syrian government troops, there is the potential for an expanded scope of operations for AQ linked forces in Syria and Iraq.

Earlier in the month Prime Minister Maliki went so far as to single out Saudi Arabia for supporting terrorist groups operating inside his country; as well as blaming Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Turkey for sponsoring terrorism in Syria.

 File photo: Associated Press

Iran Able to Build Missile-Deliverable Nuclear Weapons, if It Chooses to Do So – Report

‘We do not know if Iran will eventually decide to build nuclear weapons.’

Director of National Intelligence James Clapper on Wednesday delivered the threat assessment of the US intelligence community to Senate Select Committee on Intelligence. The Statement for the Record on Worldwide Threat Assessment includes significant portions on issues related to Iran. Following are the text on Iranian nuclear program.


“We continue to assess that Iran’s overarching strategic goal of enhancing its security, prestige, and regional influence have led it to pursue capabilities to meet its civilian goals, and give it the ability to build missile-deliverable nuclear weapons, if it chooses to do so. At the same time, Iran’s perceived need for economic relief has led it to make concessions on its nuclear program through the 24 November 2013 Joint Plan of Action with the P5+1 countries and the European Union (EU). In this context, we judge that Iran is trying to balance conflicting objectives. It wants to improve its nuclear and missile capabilities while avoiding severe repercussions – such as a military strike or regime-threatening sanctions. We do not know if Iran will eventually decide to build nuclear weapons.

Tehran has made technical progress in a number of areas – including uranium enrichment, nuclear reactors, and ballistic missiles – from which it could draw if it decided to build missile-deliverable nuclear weapons. These technical advancements strengthen our assessment that Iran has the scientific, technical, and industrial capacity to eventually produce nuclear weapons. This makes the central issue its political will to do so.

Of particular note, Iran has made progress during the past year by installing additional centrifuges at the Fuel Enrichment Plant, developing advanced centrifuge design, and stockpiling more low-enriched uranium hexafluoride (LEUF6). These developments have better positioned Iran to to produce weapons-grade uranium (WGU) using its declared facilities and uranium stockpiles, if it chooses to do so. Despite this progress, we assess that Iran would not be able to divert safeguarded material and produce enough WGU for a weapon before such activity would be discovered. Iran has also continued to work toward starting up the IR-40 Heavy Water Research Reactor near Arak.

We judge that Iran would choose a ballistic missile as its preferred method of delivering nuclear weapons, if Iran ever builds these weapons. Iran’s ballistic missiles are inherently capable of delivering WMD, and Iran already has the largest inventory of ballistic missiles in the Middle East. Iran’s progress on space launch vehicles – along with its desire to deter the United States and its allies – provides Tehran with the means and motivation to develop longer-range missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBM).

We assess that if Iran fully implements the Joint Plan, it will temporarily halt the expansion of its enrichment program, eliminate its production and stockpile of 20-percent enriched uranium in a form suitable for further enrichment, and provide additional transparency into its existing and planned nuclear facilities. This transparency would provide earlier warning of a breakout using these facilities.”

File photo: Isfahan Conversion Plant (AFP)

IAEA Inspectors Visit Iran Uranium Mine

IAEA inspectors today visited Iran’s Gachine uranium mine and milling facility near the port city of Bandar Abbas on the Persian Gulf. The visit by the three-person IAEA team is part of the Geneva agreement. The IAEA inspectors visited the site in July 2004, but had been unable to inspect it since.

Gachine is an open pit mine. It consists of various levels of low-grade uranium ore in deposit near the surface, making it easier to mine than the deeper, hard-rock deposits at Saghand mine in Yazd province. Gachine can reportedly produce up to 20 tons of uranium annually.

File photo: IAEA HQ in Vienna

Obama on Iran - SOTU

Following is the text of the three paragraphs on Iran in President’s Obama’s State of the Union address:

“And it is American diplomacy, backed by pressure, that has halted the progress of Iran’s nuclear program – and rolled parts of that program back – for the very first time in a decade.  As we gather here tonight, Iran has begun to eliminate its stockpile of higher levels of enriched uranium.  It is not installing advanced centrifuges.  Unprecedented inspections help the world verify, every day, that Iran is not building a bomb.  And with our allies and partners, we’re engaged in negotiations to see if we can peacefully achieve a goal we all share: preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.

These negotiations will be difficult.  They may not succeed.  We are clear-eyed about Iran’s support for terrorist organizations like Hezbollah, which threaten our allies; and the mistrust between our nations cannot be wished away.  But these negotiations do not rely on trust; any long-term deal we agree to must be based on verifiable action that convinces us and the international community that Iran is not building a nuclear bomb.  If John F. Kennedy and Ronald Reagan could negotiate with the Soviet Union, then surely a strong and confident America can negotiate with less powerful adversaries today.

The sanctions that we put in place helped make this opportunity possible.  But let me be clear: if this Congress sends me a new sanctions bill now that threatens to derail these talks, I will veto it.  For the sake of our national security, we must give diplomacy a chance to succeed.  If Iran’s leaders do not seize this opportunity, then I will be the first to call for more sanctions, and stand ready to exercise all options to make sure Iran does not build a nuclear weapon.  But if Iran’s leaders do seize the chance, then Iran could take an important step to rejoin the community of nations, and we will have resolved one of the leading security challenges of our time without the risks of war.”

File photo: President Barack Obama delivering SOTU address to the joint session of Congress. 28 January 2014. (Larry Downing/Getty Images/HoffPo)

Erdogan Meets Khamenei

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan held talks with Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Tehran, Leadership House, 29 January 2014. (Photo: @Khamenei_irFa/Twitter)

Atlantis mixed-use development at Qeshm, under construction

Active construction visible at the Atlantis mixed-use development site at Qeshm Island (photos from December 2013). Completed structure plans for ten stories consisting of 400 business units, 96 hotel units and 96 office units. Shopping mall, restaurants and parking capacity for 250 vehicles is also planned.

Mercedes-Benz SK-series 6x4 concrete mixer working the Atlantis construction site

Rendering of completed Atlantis mixed-use development at Qeshm Island (1)

Rendering of completed Atlantis mixed-use development at Qeshm Island (2)

Aerial imagery depicting location for completed Atlantis mixed-use development at Qeshm Island

Photos: Atlantis Qeshm

Erdogan Arrives in Tehran

Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan arrived in Tehran Tuesday evening. He will hold talks with Iran’s supreme leader, president and foreign minister during his stay. The expansion of economic ties, especially oil trade, and the Syrian civil war are expected to top the agenda.

File photo:  Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan and his wife arriving in Tehran. 28 January 2014. (Fars News Agency)

U.S. Lifts Sanctions against Iran Petrochemical Companies

The U.S. Office of Foreign Asset Control (OFAC) on Monday lifted sanctions against 14 Iranian petrochemical companies as the first step of easing sanctions under the 24 November Geneva agreement.

The petrochemical companies are: Bu Ali Sina, Nouri, Shahid Tondgouyan, Bandar Imam, Mobin, Pars, Shazand, Tabriz, Qaed Basir, Poulinar, Ariya Sasoul, Saderat-e Assalouyeh, Marjan and Jam.

The companies can now start selling their products globally and receive foreign currencies for goods sold through normal banking channels.

The development is particularly important for the country’s petrochemical industry. Unlike increasing crude oil production to pre-sanctions levels, the petrochemical plants can be restarted almost immediately without any major investments. But they need to produce products that could be easily marketed and transported globally.

File photo: Petrochemical plants in Assalouyeh on the shores of the Persian Gulf. (IRNA)

U.S. arms in support of Iraq, arms against Syria: both countries facing Al-Qaeda linked armed forces

 

Above: weapon loadout of the AH-64 Apache attack helicopter

There are reports this week that U.S. arms deliveries are planned for Iraq in its war against Al-Qaeda affiliates, while arms deliveries are also planned in the war against Syria where the strongest forces there are also Al-Qaeda affiliated.

Regarding U.S. arms for Iraq, according to Reuters:

The Obama administration notified Congress on Monday of plans to sell 24 Apache attack helicopters to Iraq, part of an effort to bolster the military against al Qaeda-linked militants, after addressing lawmakers' concerns that held up the sale for months.

The Defense Security Cooperation Agency said on its website it had informed Congress of the possible sale of the Boeing Co-built helicopters to the government of Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki, who is in a standoff with Islamist militants in the western province of Anbar two years after the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq.

The administration also notified Congress of plans to lease Iraq up to six Apaches, which a U.S. defense official said would be used for training purposes until the purchased Apaches were delivered. The cost of the purchased Apaches, and the equipment and support that accompanies them, is worth about $4.8 billion, the Defense Security Cooperation Agency said.

Regarding U.S. arms against Syria, according to Reuters:

Light arms supplied by the United States are flowing to "moderate" Syrian rebel factions in the south of the country and U.S. funding for months of further deliveries has been approved by Congress, according U.S. and European security officials.

The weapons, most of which are moving to non-Islamist Syrian rebels via Jordan, include a variety of small arms, as well as some more powerful weapons, such as anti-tank rockets.

The weapons deliveries have been funded by the U.S. Congress, in votes behind closed doors, through the end of government fiscal year 2014, which ends on September 30, two officials said.

The situation in Iraq has now become in certain respects a mirror image of the situation in Syria, with artillery and airstrikes required in attempts to dislodge Al-Qaeda affiliated fighters from their positions in urban areas. There are also collateral civilian casualties, just as in Syria.

The Iraqis need arms shipments to combat AQ affiliated forces, if not from the U.S. then the Iranians and Russians as is the case with Syria. According to these reports they'll get them from the United States; naturally the Iraqis first choice based on qualitative superiority.

However, the opposite is intended for Syria, even though the main foes are the same as that in Iraq. Congress intends to arm "moderates" but in a conflict where the strongest armed opposition forces are Al-Qaeda linked, any support against Syrian forces indirectly assists AQ forces. Moreover by extension and in effect, relieved AQ forces in Syria potentially render assistance to their operations in Iraq.

Reposted below, map of Al-Qaeda affiliated armed forces area of operations and partial control in Syria/Iraq:

Iran, World Powers to Meet in New York in Mid-February

First Round of Negotiations on Comprehensive Nuclear Agreement

Iran and world powers will meet in New York in mid-February to begin negotiations on a comprehensive agreement on the country’s nuclear program.

“It is our understanding that the first round of comprehensive negotiations will be in New York in mid-February with dates still being confirmed on schedules,” announced Marie Harf, U.S. state Department’s deputy spokesperson. (Al-Monitor, 27 January)

The last three rounds of nuclear talks that secured a six-month interim agreement last November took place in Geneva.

UPDATE: Iran's state TV confirmed that the first round of negotiations on final status of the country's nuclear program will take place in New York. (IRIB, 27 January)

File photo: Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif and U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry in a meeting in New York, 26 September 2013. (Al-Monitor) 

Israeli Jets Bomb Missile Launchers in Latakia - Report

Israeli fighter planes bombarded missile launchers in the Syrian port city of Latakia just before midnight on Sunday, with explosions reported in the Sheikh Dahar neighborhood of the city, near the city’s port, Israel’s Channel 2, quoting opposition groups, reported today. (JPost, 27 January)

The opposition groups also claimed the airstrikes targeted S-300 battery launcher. But it was not clear if the Syrian military had even received the state-of-the-art Russian air missile system. Last December, AFP quoted Russian President Vladimir Putin as saying that Russia had delivered some components of S-300, but not a complete system yet. It was not clear what components had been delivered, and if the Israelis were targeting those components yesterday.

Meanwhile, Lebanon’s LBCI reported today that two Israeli jets breached the sound barrier off Batroun district in north Lebanon at 10:45 pm on Sunday, executed circular flight and then left at 11:55 PM. (LBCI/JPost, 27 January).

In October, Israel conducted air raids against a missile base near Latakia. In September, Israel attacked an arms depot in Latakia.

File photo: IAF A-4, F-16 jets at Hatzerim Airbase in Negev Desert.  (Amir Cohen/Reuters)

Iraqi Army and Syria's NDF battling Al-Qaeda fighters - Videos

Videos posted 25 January 2014:

Video depicting Iraqi Army shelling of Falluja in battling Al-Qaeda affiliated fighters, Reports indicate the city is being hit by Iraqi airstrikes and artillery fire. Elsewhere according to Iraqi sources the eastern section of Ramadi has been cleared of Al-Qaeda affiliated fighters. [video: Reuters]

Special Forces consisting of Syria National Defense Force (NDF) in the counter-insurgency role deployed to Tabqa Air Base by means of what appears to be Russian-built Mil Mi-17 type helicopter [video: al-Manar TV]

Iran National Tanker Company to Resume Crude Shipment

Sanctions Against Insuring Tankers Suspended By Geneva Agreement

National Iranian Tanker Co. (NITC) is to resume shipping oil to as sanctions were eased as part of November’s Geneva’s deal between Iran and the world’s major powers. The sanctions against insuring the company’s tankers were suspended on 20 January, the start date for implementation of the Joint Plan of Action.

NITC Managing Director Ali Akbar Safaei told the country’s official news agency IRNA that his tankers will soon ship oil to China, India, Japan, South Korea, Turkey and Taiwan – Iran’s major oil customers.

Crude export volumes to the Asian countries covered under the agreement won’t change, Safaei said.

File photo: Iran’s oil export terminal at Kharq Island. (Getty Images) 

Women and Children To Be Allowed Out of Homs

First Concrete Outcome of Geneva II

The Geneva II talks between the Syrian government and the opposition achieved its first concrete outcome today: The Government will allow women and children to leave the besieged city of Homs. Lakhtar Brahimi, the UN Syria envoy and chief moderator at Geneva II talks, made the announcement today. (BBC News, 26 January)

Brahimi also announced that he hoped a humanitarian convoy from the UN and the Red Cross would be able to go to Homs on Monday. Hundreds of people are reportedly trapped in besieged parts of the city, including some who are very ill.

Photo credit: The old city of Homs has been under siege by government forces. (Reuters)

Iran Officials Criticize Kerry

IRGC Commander Major General Ali Jafari dismissed what he called U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry's threat of military action against Tehran over its nuclear program, Iranian media reported.

Kerry had said that the military option was still on the table if Iran did not live up to its nuclear commitments under Geneva’s Joint Plan of Action it signed with the six world powers in November. Kerry made the comments in response to a question at WEF in Davos that what happens if Iran did not implement its commitments under the Geneva deal.

Gen. Jafari called the threat “ridiculous.” He asked Kerry to stop repeating “bankrupt strategies such as the use of military power.” Jafari added that such comments help the cause of the "revolutionary Islam."

“Mr. Kerry must know that direct battle with the US is the biggest dream of pious and revolutionary people across the world. Your threats offer our revolutionary people the best opportunity,” Gen. Jafari said. (IRNA, 25 January)

IRGC deputy commander was more blunt and repeated Iran’s own old threat.

“The interests of the United States in the region will be completely destroyed in case of any military attack against Iran,” said IRGC Brig. Gen. Masoud Jazayeri. (Press TV, 25 January)

On Sunday, Iran’s foreign ministry spokeswoman Marzieh Afkham said Kerry’s comments were in violation of international laws.

“These remarks are undiplomatic and have been made under the pressure of the opposition to Iran's recent nuclear deal with the world powers,” Afkham said. (IRNA, 26 January)

Kerry also elaborated on some of the outlines of a permanent deal with Iran.

“Iran must accept extensive verification, abandon plans to build a heavy-water reactor that can produce plutonium, and resolve longstanding concerns by the International Atomic Energy Agency,” Kerry said. (AP, 25 January)

File photo: IRCG Commander Ali Jafari in a press conference in Tehran in September 2012. (IRNA)

‘A Good Beginning,’ Brahimi on First Day of Syria Peace Talks

UN Syria envoy Lakhdar Brahimi said representatives from Syrian government and the opposition met in the same room at UN’s Palais des Nations for about three hours on Saturday.

“They have talked to each other this afternoon,” Brahimi told journalists at a Geneva press conference at the conclusion of the first day of joint talks. Describing the set up in the room, he said, “One delegation was at a table on the left, the other on the right, facing each other. They talk through me, to one another. ” (The Back Channel/Al-Monitor, 25 January)

“This is what happens in civilized discussions, ” Brahimi added. “I think it is a good beginning.”
The two sides discussed a possible agreement to send an aid convoy to the besieged city of Homs for possible approval on Sunday, Brahimi said. The two sides will also discuss prisoner releases on Sunday.

“The most important element discussed today was on humanitarian corridors for Homs, which has been besieged for the past 19 months without food,” Louay Safi, a spokesman for the Syrian Opposition Coalition negotiating team told journalists at a press conference Saturday evening.

“Now we are going through the preparatory phase of securing the release of detainee,” Safi said. (The Back Channel/Al-Monitor, 25 January)

The parties on Monday will begin discussing the formation of a transitional governing body, Safi added.

Photo credit: UN Syria envoy Lakhdar Brahimi reporting on the first day of talks between Syrian government and the opposition. Geneva, 25 January 2014. (The Back Channel/Al-Monitor)

Fatemeh Hashemi Sentenced to Six-Month Suspended Jail Term

Tehran’s Revolutionary Court today sentenced Fatemeh Hashemi, 39, the daughter of the former president Ayatollah Hashemi Rafsanjani, to a six-month suspended jail term, IRNA reported today.

The revolutionary court’s Orwellian charge against her was “spreading lies about authorities.” The media reported that she had “spread lies” about Larijani brothers. The three brothers are the speaker of Majlis, the head of the Judiciary, and the head of government’s Human Rights Commission.

Faezeh Hashemi, another of Rafsanjani's daughters, was arrested and imprisoned in late 2012 for six months for “propaganda against the regime.”

File photo: Fatemeh Hashemi (IRNA)

Syria Peace Talks Get Underway in Syria - Signs of Progress

A face-to-face meeting between the Syrian government and the opposition has started in Geneva. This is the first time in three years of civil war that the two sides negotiate face to face. UN special envoy Lakhdar Brahimi is presiding over the meeting.

UPDATE: The first meeting between leaders of the Syrian government and the opposition was tense but lasted three hours. An opposition spokesman told reporters after the meeting that the two sides will begin discussing formation of a transitional government on Monday. (NBC News, 25 January)

File photo: UN Special Envoy for Syria Lakhdar Brahimi (AP

Zarif Meets Turki in Davos

Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif told a World Economic Forum panel on Friday that he had met Saudi Prince Turki, an influential former intelligence chief and an outspoken critic of President Obama’s Iran policy, earlier that day in Davos. (Reuters, 25 January)

“We want good relations with our neighbors. People should not be concerned,” Zarif told the panel.

The Zarif-Turki meeting is the highest-level gathering between Iranian and Saudi officials since Rouhani came to power.

Photo credit: Prince Turki al-Saud of Saudi Arabia at the annual meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos. January 24, 2014. (Reuters)

FM Zarif's position on Syria at Davos

 

According to Associated Press:

Iran's foreign minister called Friday for foreign fighters to leave Syria so that its people can decide their future themselves.

Speaking on a panel discussion about the Middle East at the World Economic Forum, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said Iran also wants to see an end to foreign support for opponents of President Bashar Assad's government and recognition by all sides that there can be no military solution to the conflict. He said Tehran hoped for a negotiated settlement.

Syria claimed from the start that its current conflict has been a fight against armed groups involving foreign fighters. For a considerable time this was a matter of dispute but no more. The foreign fighter, Al-Qaeda affiliated threat has now spread like spilled milk, from Iraq to Syria and now Syria to Iraq, where Iraqi Army and security forces are now engaging ISIL fighters in Anbar province. Akwardly, United States policy finds itself supporting Iraq's fight while working against Syria's fight, in the two Middle Eastern countrys' conflict with the same enemy.

A line of disagreement between Iran/Russia and the United States lies on the issue of including President Assad running in elections that are said to take place in 2014. The Iran/Russia position states that the Syrian electorate should be allowed the opportunity to vote for Assad and his government in a free and fair election, while the American and Western allied position maintains Assad must be excluded. It's this Iran position that prompted the American demand that the UN retract its invitation to Iran for attendance at the Geneva II talks.