Iran Will Oppose Overthrow of Assad - Velayati

Ali Akbar Velayati, senior advisor to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei said today Iran will actively take part in the new round of Syria talks, scheduled for 12 November in Vienna.

Velayati said Iran’s participation in the talks is “by no means tantamount to a retreat from its stance on Syria.” Velayati added that the Syrian government is the “best guardian” of the country, and Iran will “oppose any plan which seeks to overthrow President Assad.” (IRIB/Press TV, 7 November)

File photo: Ali Akbar Velayati, senior advisor to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei (IRNA)

Pro-Syrian fighting forces reestablish LOC to Aleppo

Syrian Arab Republic media on 04NOV15 claimed its forces have reestablished line of communication (LOC) to western Aleppo, by means of securing the Ithriya-Khannaser highway.

SOHR confirmed the Syrian Arab Republic frontline with ISIL had been successfully pushed forward about 10 kilometers from the route.

Following consists of social media imagery uploaded this week depicting Pro-Syrian government and Iran-backed forces on the southern approaches to Aleppo:

Pro-Syrian government T-72 main battle tank display ISIL flag trophy, claimed depiction on the Ithriya-Khannaser Highway.

Pro-government supply vehicle claimed carrying supplies on the Ithriya-Khannaser Highway, on 04NOV15 breaking the siege imposed on Western Aleppo by ISIL.

Syrian Arab Republic supply convoy along Ithriya-Khannaser Highway

Syrian Arab Republic forces along Ithriya-Khannaser Highway

Light infantry belonging to force fighting on the side of the Syrian Arab Republic, securing the Ithriya-Khannaser Highway.

Armor and motorized infantry belonging to forces of fighting on the side of Syrian Arab Republic, at the Ithriya-Khannaser Highway.  [photo:AFP]

Iran-backed forces equipped with Iran-supplied Safir ("Ambassador") tactical vehicles; claimed depiction at the southern approaches to Aleppo.

Iran-backed forces equipped with Iran-supplied Safir ("Ambassador") tactical vehicles; claimed depiction at the southern approaches to Aleppo.

Motorized infantry on motorbikes in manner of deployment consistent with IRGC/Basij; claimed depiction at the southern approaches to Aleppo.

Iran-backed forces deploying 2S1 Gvozdika ("Carnation") type 122 mm self-propelled howitzers,;claimed depiction at the southern approaches to Aleppo.

Iran-backed forces deploying improvised rocket-assisted munition (IRAM) launcher vehicles; claimed depiction at the southern approaches to Aleppo.

Iran-backed Iraqi Katai'b Hezbollah fighting force fielding T-72 main battle tanks; claimed depiction at the southern approaches to Aleppo.

Iran-backed Iraqi Katai'b Hezbollah fighting force members equipped with M16 type assault rifle and PKM general purpose machine gun; claimed depiction at the southern approaches to Aleppo.

Iran-backed Iraqi Katai'b Hezbollah fighting force member equipped with SPG-9 Kopye (“Spear”) 73 mm recoilless gun; claimed depiction at the southern approaches to Aleppo.

IRIAF Lockheed C-130H Hercules (L-382), serial 5-8552 (cn 382-4594) at a Syrian airbase, supporting Iranian mission in Syria. Figure in foreground is a SyAAF colonel, possibly base commandfer.

Iran Denies Deployment of Ground Forces to Syria

Contradicting Reports of Hundreds of Troops Being Deployed

A high-ranking Iranian official dismissed as “sheer lie” media reports that Iranian troops have been deployed to Syria, Iran’s official news agency IRNA reported today.

Reuters, citing Lebanese sources, had reported that in the past two weeks hundreds of Iranian troops have moved into Syria to join a major ground offensive in support of Assad’s government. The report said the deployed troops were not advisers but a fighting force, and that they will be followed by more troops in the coming days. 

Note: The Iranian government usually denies deployment of any Iranian forces to Syria. It took them nearly two years to confirm that hundreds of Quds Force advisers were operating in the country. 

Photo: AP

 

Russian-Iranian-Syrian-Iraqi military cooperation against ISIL

RuAF Antonov An-124-100 Ruslan at at Bassel al-Assad Airport, near Latakia, Syria

According to Reuters:

Iraq said on Saturday that its military officials were engaged in intelligence and security cooperation in Baghdad with Russia, Iran and Syria to counter the threat from the Islamic State militant group, a pact that could raise concerns in Washington.

A statement from the Iraqi military's joint operations command said the cooperation had come "with increased Russian concern about the presence of thousands of terrorists from Russia undertaking criminal acts with Daesh (Islamic State)."

The move could give Moscow more sway in the Middle East. It has stepped up its military involvement in Syria in recent weeks while pressing for Damascus to be included in international efforts to fight Islamic State, a demand Washington rejects.

COMMENTARY: News of this was first indicated by an anonymous American official last Friday. The next day, Iraqi Joint Forces Command issued statement confirming Russian, Iranian, Syrian and Iraqi military cooperation against ISIL.

From an objective military standpoint, such cooperation is logical. It's also possible maintaining of the logistical air bridge over Iraq to Syria was discussed.

An advantage of the Russians and Iranians in the war against Al-Qaeda and ISIL is possession of a reliable partner inside Syria. That reliable partner is the Syrian Arab Republic, a sovereign state recognized by the United Nations. Unfortunately, the United States lacks a reliable partner at anywhere near such a level inside Syria, with attempts to compose one so far rendering unsatisfactory results.

This move comes not only at a time where Russia has landed a significant military force into Syria, but also at a time where Baghdad is experiencing political crisis and military stalemate.

The move further enhances Russia and Iran's peace process for Syria, which will be the subject of discussion on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly session now in progress.

It is even being said the Iranians may be included in discussions aimed at resolving the conflict in Yemen, a development a number of European high ranking officials recently advocated while visiting Tehran, seeking post-JCPOA economic ties.

Iran Government B737 takes FM Zarif to Lebanon, Syria and Pakistan

Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif arrives at Islamabad - Benazir Bhutto International Airport (ISB / OPRN) on 13AUG15 at approximately 06:30 hrs local time.

Zarif's aircraft is Islamic Republic of Iran Government Boeing 737-286/Adv, reg. EP-AGA (cn 21317/483). For this current trip, EP-AGA has flown the foreign minister to Lebanon, Syria and Pakistan, with the next scheduled scheduled for India. Two weeks ago, this aircraft flew Zarif to Kuwait, Qatar and Iraq. [see HERE]

This aircraft recently underwent D-check by Iran Air at Tehran - Mehrabad International (THR / OIII). [For aircraft history, click HERE].

Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif arrives on 13AUG15 at Islamabad - Benazir Bhutto International Airport

Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif shakes hands with Artesh lieutenant colonel, likely a military attache to Pakistan.

EP-AGA seen arriving on 12AUG15 at Damascus International Airport (DAM / OSDI). Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif is welcomed by Syrian Deputy Foreign Minister Faisal Mekdad.

Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad on 12AUG15

Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif with Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri, on 12AUG15 in Beirut

Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif with Gebran Bassil, Minister of Foreign Affairs and Emigrants of Lebanon, on 12AUG15 in Beirut.

Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif with Lebanese Deputy Prime Minister and Defense Minister Samir Moqbel, on 12AUG15 in Beirut.

Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif with Seyed Hassan Nasrallah, Secretary-General of Hezbollah, on 12AUG15 in Beirut

Photos: Islamic Republic News Agency, Hezbollah Media Department and Reuters

Syrian and Russian foreign ministries meet with Iran's leadership in Tehran

Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif leads Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Moallem into a conference room on 05AUG15 in Tehran.

Iran will soon submit a four-point plan to end the Syrian civil war to the United Nations, its deputy foreign minister said Wednesday. [source: Reuters] That plan will likely encompass an immediate cease-fire, creation of a national unity government, rewriting of Syria’s constitution to include the majority of Syrian ethnic groups, and hold national elections under international supervision. The plan may also provide for joint regional negotiations to end the conflict, that include Iran, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Qatar.

Interesting to see Iranian and Syrian woman participants among the foreign ministry delegations, in conference

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Moallem

Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Moallem with Iran Navy Rear Admiral Ali Shamkhani, secretary of the Supreme National Security Council of Iran.

What may be members of Russian delegation on hand to meet Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Moallem, seen here with Iran Navy Rear Admiral Ali Shamkhani, secretary of the Supreme National Security Council of Iran.

Syrian Foreign Minister Walid al-Moallem was scheduled to meet with Mikhail Bogdanov, Russian President Vladimir Putin's special envoy to the Middle East, on the evening of 04AUG15 in Tehran.

The Interfax news agency quoted the Russian Foreign Ministry on 05AUG15 as saying that a delegation of the Syrian National Coalition opposition group has been invited to visit Moscow next week.

Photos: Islamic Republic News Agency

Syria Ratifies Additional $1 Billion Credit Line from Iran

Syrian President Bashar al-Assad ratified a fresh $1 billion line of credit from Iran, state news agency SANA reported on Wednesday. It is estimated that Iran has spent over $25 billion in Syria in the past three years to support the regime in its war against the opposition.

Iran spends billions of dollars in deployment of military advisers to Syria and in sponsoring the operations of the Hezbollah and other foreign Shia militias fighting for the Assad's regime. Iran also supplies arms to Syria and the country's entire needs for crude oil.  The Syrian conflict has become a costly war for Iran.

Iran Denies Military Presence in Syria, Seriously!

Iranian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Marziyeh Afkham today denied the presence of Iranian military personnel in Syria.

“Iran is just extending humanitarian aid to Syria,” Afkham was quoted as saying by Iran’s semiofficial Fars News Agency on Wednesday.

Echoing Afkham’s denial, Fars report also quoted a 2013 statement by the IRGC public relations director, Brig. Gen. Ramezan Sharif, that Iran “is only present in the country at the level of military attaches to transfer its defense experiences to the defenders of Syria.” (Fars News Agency, 10 June)

Iran is giving us new definitions of “humanitarian aid” and “military attaches.” In Syria, for example, the Iranian version of military attaches number in hundreds; deploy and lead the operations of thousands of Hezbollah and other foreign Shia militias; direct military operations centers in different parts of the country; operate heavy military equipment and UAVs; etc. They are probably doing it for humanitarian purposes, as Ms. Afkham would say.

File photo: Iranian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Marziyeh Afkham (Mehr News Agency) 

Iran Spends Billions to Prop UP Assad – Report

Iran is spending billions of dollars a year to prop up the Assad regime in Syria. A spokesman for Staffan de Mistra, the UN special envoy to Syria, told Bloomberg on Monday that the envoy estimates Iran spends $6 billion annually on Assad’s government. Nadim Shehadi, the director of the Fares Center for Eastern Mediterranean Studies at Tufts University, said his research shows that Iran spend between $14 and $15 billion in military and economic aid to the Damascus government in 2012 and 2013, averaging more than $7 billion a year. (Bloomberg, 9 June)

The estimated $6-$7 billion figure in annual military and economic aid to Syria, which includes delivery of all crude oil needs of the country, does not take into account the annual expenditure for hundreds of Quds Force military advisers and other IRGC specialists deployed to Syria or the money spent on the Hezbollah and other foreign Shia militias operating under the Iranian command in the country. Those figures remain classified.

Steven Heydemann, who was the vice president for applied research on conflict at the U.S. Institute of Peace until last month, told Bloomberg earlier this year that the value of Iranian oil transfers, lines of credit, subsidies for weapons for the Syrian military, military personnel costs and supporting Hezbollah and Shia militias fighting in Syria, Iran’s total support for Assad, would be between $15 and $20 billion annually.

File photo: Syrian President Bashar Assad during a meeting in Tehran with Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei (AFP/Getty Images/Bloomberg)

Iran Funneling $1 Billion to $2 Billion a Month into Syria - Report

The Christian Science Monitor quoted a Beirut-based diplomat with contacts in Syria as estimating that Iran funnels between $1 billion to $2 billion a month into Syria.

“A Beirut-based diplomat with extensive contacts in Syria estimates that Iran funnels between $1 billion to $2 billion a month into Syria to keep Mr, Assad in Power. Of that, some $500 million is spent on military assistance, mostly for National Defense Force, a 70-000-strong loyalist militia commanded by IRGC, according to this diplomat and others who monitor Syria closely,” The Christian Science Monitor reported today.

“They [the Iranians] have officially given around $5 billion in (line of) credit, and when you consider the financial aid, military aid, discounted oil, and man hours of IRGC officials the number must be north of $10 billion (annually). Absent Iranian largess, Assad would not be financially solvent today,” said Karim Sadjadpour, a Washington-based senior associate at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. (The Christian Science Monitor, 5 January)

A slump in global oil prices on top of existing sanctions, however, is squeezing Iran. Aside from funneling billions to the Syrian regime, Iran is also waging an expensive military campaign in Iraq and is supporting the operations of the Lebanese Hezbollah.  

Regarding Hezbollah, the Christian Science Monitor reports that according to a wide range of political and diplomatic sources in Beirut, as Iran tightens its belt because of falling oil prices, the Hezbollah in particular is coming under pressure financially, imposing salary cuts on personnel, defer payments to suppliers and reduce monthly stipends to its political allies in Lebanon.

But analysts do not expect Iran to end its financial support of Syria or Hezbollah.

“I think people will go hungry in Tehran before Iran will cease its investments in this so-called ‘axis of resistance,’ says Sadjadpour.

Photo credit: Deramstime.com

Larijani: Regional Powers Conspiring to Reduce Oil Prices

In Damascus to Renew Support for Assad

Iran’s Speaker of Majlis Ali Larijani said today the Islamic Republic was mindful of regional players working against Tehran in the global oil marketplace. In a not-so-veiled reference to Saudi Arabia and other GCC countries, Larijani said those countries are conspiring to keep oil prices low to punish Iran.

“We will not forget which countries are conspiring to reduce oil prices,” Larijani said. “It would be a mistake if they imagine they can change the strategic and important issues of the region through oil.” (UPI, 22 December)

Larijani made the comments in Damascus during a visit to the Syrian capital. Iran is trying to retool its economy, stifled by sanctions, and now the low price of oil, off about 45 percent from its June value.

Larijani is in Damascus to renew Iranian support for Assad regime. He met with the Syrian president on Sunday, and said later that Assad will continue his determination to eradicate “terrorism,” a term used to describe Assad’s opponents and the Syrian opposition. Assad said on Sunday, however, that his government is ready to work on “reconciliation” to end the brutal civil war, sate news agency SANA reported.

Photo credit: Iran’s Speaker of Majlis Ali Larijani (l.) meeting with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad; Damascus, 21 December 2014 (Reuters)

Syrian Officials ‘Worried’ about Iran’s Continued Support – Report

Economic Lifeline Provided by Iran Under Strain

 

Syrian trade officials say they are worried the economic lifeline provided by Iran is under strain from plunging oil prices, Reuters reported. Iran’s hard currency revenues have been cut by nearly 50 percent due to falling oil prices, and Iran needs hard currency to maintain its aid to Syria.

“If it had not been for Iranian support we could not have survived the crisis,” a senior Syrian trade official said from Damascus. (Reuters, 19 December)

Iran granted Syria $4.2 billion credit facility in July 2013 to buy oil and non-oil products, the officials at the time had told Reuters. Since then the Islamic State insurgents have taken control of all Syrian oil production facilities, and Iran has become Syria’s sole source of imported oil, forcing Iran to increase its line of credit to Syria. 

The Syrian pound, which fell around 70 percent since the civil war began in 2011, lost another 10 percent over the past fortnight alone. Reuters, quoting two senior Syrian bankers, reports that Iran deposited $500-$750 million in Syria’s Central Bank more than a year ago to help stabilize the pound. It is believed that Iran needs to deposit millions of dollars more in light of the country’s growing currency crisis in the past few days.

Iran is also heavily involved in a military campaign in Syria; supplying missiles, weapons and ammunitions to the Syrian military, as well as paying for the salaries and operations of thousands of Shia militias fighting on the side of the Assad regime. Iran’s Quds Force officers, and those from other branches of military and intelligence agencies, are also deployed to the country to advise and assist the Syrian military and to lead the Shia militias in their fight against the opposition. Iran is also believed to be paying for thousands of deployed Lebanese Hezbollah fighters in Syria. A military campaign at this magnitude would cost Iran billions of dollars a year. 

The economic aids, like granting an ever growing line of credit to the Syrian government, and the military campaign are costly undertaking by Iran, mostly requiring hard currency to be paid for. And since June, Iran is involved in another major military campaign in Iraq, costing billions of dollars above and beyond its commitments to Syria.

Hence, the worries of Syrian officials in light of Iran’s recent financial woes, fearing that 50 percent cut in Iran’s oil revenues could break its back financially. However, the Iranian officials have told their Syrian counterparts not to worry.

“Iran’s economic support for Syria will continue incessantly,” said Iran’s Vice president Eshagh Jahangiri in Tehran after his meeting with visiting Syrian Prime Minister Wael Al-Halqi on Tuesday. (IRNA, 16 December)

The Syrian PM was in Tehran to seek Iran’s continued support. The Syrian chamber of commerce officials have told Reuters that the prime minister was particularly asking for Iran’s help to send them bigger quantities of petroleum products, which has become in perilously short supply in the country.

ISIL’s control of some of the border crossings between Syria and Iraq has also complicated the situation for the Syrians, disrupting the flows of tens of thousands of barrels of crude from Iraq that were delivered overland by oil tankers, making Iran the only remaining supplier. Four Iranian tankers have discharged cargoes of gasoline and other petroleum product by the sea to Syrian ports recently, but they did not end acute shortage, Reuters reported.

File photo: Iran's oil exporting terminal at Kharq island (Getty Images)