Reported U.S. Proposal on Centrifuges Runs into Trouble in Tehran

Plumber Approach vs. Industrial-Scale Enrichment Capacity

On Saturday, the New York Times reported that the U.S. has offered a new proposal aimed at resolving the disputed issue of the numbers of uranium enrichment centrifuges Iran would be allowed to maintain under a comprehensive nuclear agreement. The proposal calls for Iran to “disconnect” rather than “dismantle” most of its existing centrifuges, literally taking away many of the pipes that connect the machines in a maze that allows uranium fuel to move from one to another, getting enriched along the way.

The U.S. proposal would allow Iran to save face and claim that it wasn’t dismantling the centrifuges.

But the plumber solution to Iran’s uranium enrichment capacity is apparently running into trouble in Tehran. The Los Angeles Times reported on Sunday that the proposal was meeting skepticism from conservatives and moderates alike. The paper reported that an influential conservative analyst, Alireza Karimi, has described the proposal as a “stunt” aimed at “deception of public opinion.”

Iran would be left with only “window-display enrichment,” Karimi told Fars News Agency.

Iran currently has some 19,000 centrifuges installed in its enrichment facilities, with 10,000 in operation. Even if the “disconnecting” approach was accepted by Iran’s nuclear negotiators, it would not satisfy the supreme leader’s demand that Iran must maintain some 190,000 centrifuges to independently fuel its Bushehr nuclear power reactor. Karimi also brought up that issue, saying the proposal wouldn’t bring Iran closer to satisfy its needs for electric power generation.

A reformis analyst, Nader Karimi Juni, was also quoted by the Los Angeles Times that the he saw the new proposal as a “window dressing aimed at easing a public-relations problem.” He added any proposals need to meet the requirements of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei that Iran be allowed to develop an industrial-sclae enrichment capacity.

Meanwhile, Iran and P5+1 nuclear negotiators are expected to resume their talks in New York later this week.

File photo: Iranian IR-1 centrifuges in operation at Natanz enrichment facility. Note the maze of pipes connecting the machines. A new proposal would disconnect the pipes, instead of dismantling the machines. (Photo: IRNA)

Iran, World Powers Negotiations Enter Serious Phase

Resolving Tough Issues

 

Iran and world powers will begin a new round of nuclear negotiations on Tuesday and Wednesday in Vienna. Iran’s Foreign Minister Javad Zarif and EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton had a working dinner tonight, with Zarif telling reporters afterward that they talked about method of continuing talks and importance of mutual respect.

Upon arrival in Vienna, however, Zarif had said that the two sides were ready to start drafting a final comprehensive accord in two weeks.

“We will finish all discussions and issues this time to pave the ground for starting to draft the final draft in Ordibehesht (an Iranian month that begins in two weeks),” Zarif said. (Reuters, 7 April)

But Russia’s deputy foreign minister and chief negotiator told reporters Sergei Ryabkov was quoted by Itas-Tass news agency as saying that there were “no special expectations for this week’s meeting.”

“Talks on a number of issues were still in early stages and the meeting should produce a basis for further discussions,” said Ryabkov. (Itar-Tass/Reuters, 7 April)

Notwithstanding Zarif’s optimism, there are some very tough issues that need to be resolved before a draft agreement could be produced.

Scope of Enrichment: Iran has installed approximately 19,000 uranium-enriching centrifuges, with 10,000 of them currently operational. Iran does not want to dismantle a substantial number of the machines, which has taken it number of years at a cost of billions of dollars to assemble. The West wants the numbers decreased substantially to reduce Iranian breakout capabilities in future. Speculations are that the numbers being pushed by the West would be less than 5,000 of older IR-1 centrifuges, giving it at least six months forewarning if and when Iran decides to build a nuclear weapon. This is a tough one to negotiate.

The West also wants Iran to stop enriching above 5 percent permanently. Iran accepted the restriction in the Joint Plan of Action (JPOA), and could agree to it now. There would also be a limit to the stockpile of 5% uranium. The agreement would also entail a conversion of Fordo enrichment unit into a R&D facility.

Arak IR-40: The heavy water reactor as currently designed could produce enough plutonium annually for a nuclear weapon. The construction has been halted under JPOA. The West would push for radical changes made to the reactor. Speculations are that the proposal on the table would be converting the reactor into a light water reactor with half the power (20 MW) and using enriched uranium feed (as opposed to natural uranium).

The changes will effectively prevent a plutonium path to nuclear weapons, and will be very costly at this late stage of reactor’s construction. If Iran ever agrees to such terms, it would expect the West to pay for the changes.

Verification: The West wants IAEA’s verification team to practically be present at nuclear facilities, including Natanz and Fordo, and the ability to inspect all other facilities at will; verification abilities beyond the Additional Protocol.

On a related matter, the IAEA will be tasked to resolve questions on the history of possible military dimensions (PMD) to Iranian nuclear program in years past, specifically the work performed at Parchin. The IAEA report on PMD will probably a pre-requisite to a final accord. Verification issues are tough, but it is expected that the two sides could accept a compromise here easier than other issues.

Ballistic Missiles: Iran has repeatedly said the issue of ballistic missiles has nothing to do with nuclear negotiations and is off topic. The reality is that one of the end games of negotiations is the lifting of all Western as well as UN Security Council sanctions against Iran, and the UN Resolution 1929 specifically prohibits Iranian activities on ballistic missiles capable of delivering nuclear weapons. That resolution needs to be addressed, if not as part of the main negotiations, but perhaps as a confidence building measure to limit Iran ballistic capabilities at its current levels. This could still be very tricky and difficult for the Iranian negotiating team to accept.

Sanctions Relief: JPOA already defines the issue as the comprehensive lift of all UN Security Council, multilateral and national sanctions related to Iranian nuclear program. The two sides need, and are expected to reach a mutually acceptable timeframe for lifting of all sanctions and unfreezing of some $100 billion of Iranian assets held by foreign banks, basically the revenues from the sale of Iranian oil to different countries. This issue could be the easiest of all.

Arak Reactor, IR-2 Centrifuges Among Iran’s Demands at Nuclear Talks

Iran will not give up the future use of advanced IR-2M centrifuges and its heavy water Arak reactor as part of any long-term comprehensive agreement with the world powers, said Hamid Baeedinejad, a member of Iran’s nuclear negotiating team. (IRNA, 16 February)

Under the 24 November Geneva agreement, in force for six months, Iran has stopped construction activities to complete its Arak reactor and has agreed not to replace the older IR-1 centrifuges with the advanced machines.

If the completion and operationalization of Arak and the future use of the new centrifuges are Iran’s non-negotiable demands, as suggested by Baeedinejad, they could become obstacles to strike a final and comprehensive deal with the world powers at talks that will begin later this week in Vienna. It is also not clear why Iran accepted those limits in the interim Geneva agreement, if it does not accept them in any final deal.

File photo: Arak heavy-water nuclear reactor. (IRNA)

Iran Installs 1,000 IR-2m Centrifuges

Banned by Geneva Agreement – But Not Operationalized

Director of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) Ali Akbar Salehi said today that Iran has installed 1,000 IR-2m centrifuges at its uranium enrichment facilities, but has not operationalized them. The November 24 Geneva agreement prohibits the introduction of new-generation centrifuges by Iran. 

“We have put in 1,000 centrifuges of the second generation (IR-2m), but we have not injected the UF6 gas into them given the ongoing nuclear talks,” Salehi said. (Press TV, 1 January)

“There is nothing impossible for Iran in producing new-generation centrifuges and we have fully mastered the job,” Salehi added.

File photo: A new IR-2m centrifuge being inspected by then-President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. 2012. (IRNA)

Iran, P5+1 Start New Round of Implementation Talks

Update - Negotiation Might Go Into Tuesday Morning 

Iran and the six world powers started a new round of expert-level talks in Geneva on Monday morning to develop a framework to implement the nuclear deal struck last month.

Hamid Baeidinejad, the director general for political and international affairs at Iran’s Foreign Ministry, is leading the Iranian delegation which includes experts from nuclear, banking, oil and transportation sectors, Fars News Agency reported.

Today’s talks began amid concerns that misunderstanding over interpretation of parts of the November 24 accord could slow down its implementation. A key sticking point appears to be how much advance information Western governments will get so they can verify that Iran is meeting its end of the deal before any sanctions are lifted. Also in dispute, is the types of uranium-enrichment centrifuges that could be deployed by Iran. The Iranian nuclear chief had announced last week that Iran was building a new generation of “cutting-edge” enrichment machines, which appeared to be in violation of the interim accord.

UPDATE: Iranian deputy foreign minister Abbas Araqchi said tonight in Tehran that the negations undergoing in Geneva might be continued past its schedule time and into Tuesday morning. (ISNA, 30 December)

Iran Hopes to Implement Nuclear Deal within Month - Araqchi

Obstacles Over Interpretation of Geneva Interim Accord

Iran’s deputy FM and nuclear negotiator Abbas Araqchi expressed hope today that the Geneva interim agreement could be implemented within a month, Mehr News Agency reported today.

Araqchi’s optimism comes amid growing concerns that the nuclear talks have hit obstacles over interpretation of the 24 November interim agreement, including the types centrifuges that could be used by Iran, which announced last week that it was building a new generation of centrifuges.

“If expert-level talks (to be held on Monday in Geneva) are fruitful, a date will be decided which I guess will be at the end of January for the deal to be implemented,” said Araqchi. “(But) the negotiations are proceeding slowly as there are misunderstandings over interpretation of some elements of the accord,” he added. (Mehr News Agency, 29 December)

Tomorrow’s talks in Geneva are aimed at setting a framework to implement the November 24 Geneva agreement, which was meant to buy time for six months so Iran and world powers could finalize a long-term agreement on the future of Iran’s nuclear program, which would also result in lifting of all sanctions against the country

Iran’s nuclear chief, Ali Akbar Salehi, said late on Thursday that Iran is building a new generation of centrifuges for uranium enrichment but they need further tests before they can be mass produced. The production of new enriching machines could be against the agreement worked out in Geneva last month, with Iran committing to freeze the amount and type of enriching machines.

Iran was also reported to have already installed some of the cutting-edge machines at a research tract of one of Iran’s enriching sites, Reuters reported on Saturday. Iran argues that it had a right to increase its enrichment capabilities in such a manner under the research and development provisions of the November 24 Geneva accord.

Iran Develops New Generation of Uranium Centrifuges

Ali Akbar Salehi, the director of Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) said on Thursday that the Islamic Republic has designed a new generation of uranium centrifuges, and that they are ready to be manufactured after testing. (Fars News Agency/Press TV, 27 December)


Salehi did not provide any specific details on the new generation of centrifuges.

The interim agreement signed last month in Geneva between Iran and P5+1, and valid for six months, prohibits the introduction of new centrifuges by Iran. It was not clear if Iran plans to manufacture the new enrichment machines after the expiration of the Geneva agreement.