JPOA+

Comprehensive Nuclear Deal Unlikely by Deadline - Report

Despite a year of negotiations, Iran and six major powers are unlikely to meet the 24 November deadline to reach a final and comprehensive nuclear deal, Iranian and Western officials told Reuters tonight.

The two sides would probably settle for another JPOA-type interim agreement that builds on the current limited sanctions relief, also dubbed JPOA+.

The sticking points remain Iran’s enrichment capacity, translated in the number and types of centrifuges it could operate, and the speed of lifting existing sanctions, especially on oil exports and the banking and insurance sectors.

Failure to Reach Nuclear Deal ‘No Catastrophe’ - Iran

Belated Attention by Media - Preparing Ground for Failure?

 The Iranian deputy foreign minister Abbas Araqchi said failure to reach a nuclear deal will be "no catastrophe." He made the comments on Tuesday. The Iranian media highlighted the comments today. The state-run Press TV carried Araqchi’s comments as the lead story on its website and Twitter account on Thursday. This is what Araqchi had said:

“The Geneva deal has provided an opportunity for us to reach a final deal; however, even if we don’t reach an agreement … no catastrophe will happen.”

Araqchi also singled out the level of uranium enrichment, Arak heavy water reactor, and timetable for the agreement’s expiration date and the process of sanctions relief as issues still under negotiation, adding, “divisions still remain on some of these issues, but we have narrowed our differences on some others.” (Press TV, 21 August)

The belated attention by the country’s state-run media to Araqchi’s comments probably indicates that the government through its messaging is preparing the public for the real possibility of the failure of the talks, as well as warning P5+1 of its readiness to stand its ground on contentious issues, especially its future enrichment capacity.

Rouhani was elected president a year ago partly on a campaign promise of ending sanctions through negotiations with the West. In his first months in office, Iran indeed signed an interim nuclear agreement with P5+1, which although offered only minimal sanctions relief, but raised hope among the public and in the markets of an imminent comprehensive deal to close a dark period of anti-Iran sanctions and anti-Western sloganeering. The national currency rial stabilized and foreign investors visited the country in droves preparing ground for their return when a final deal were reached.

The failure of Vienna talks to produce a comprehensive agreement by its original 20 July deadline was not the news the public was expecting. The extension of the deadline to 24 November, which meant the interim accord was still in effect, did prevent the markets in Iran from overreacting to the delay. But the failure of the talks by the November deadline will change that; hence Arachi’s comments and the attention by the media to discount that future now, in the hope that both the public and the markets will interpret the failure as “no catastrophe.”

There are still three months left for the two sides to strike a deal, and three months in politics, especially during these turbulent times in the region, is an eternity. Long enough for the negotiators to come to an agreement and for the political leaders to accept it as the best bad option available.

File photo: Foreign ministers of Iran and six world powers and EU after signing the interim nuclear accord in Geneva, 24 November 2013. (IRNA/Press TV)

Boeing Reaches Agreement with Iran on Parts, Services

Boeing announced today that it has reached a deal with Iran’s state carrier Iran Air to supply airplane parts, manuals, drawings, service bulletins, navigation charts and data. Boeing has also opened discussions with Iran Air Tour, a subsidiary of Iran Air, for similar goods and services. (Reuters, 24 July)

The agreement marks the first dealings between U.S. aerospace giant and Iran since the 1979 hostage taking by the Iranians led to the original sanctions against Iran. Iran Air’s fleet still includes vintage Boeing jetliners delivered before 1979.

The sanctions relief by the U.S. that allowed Boeing’s deal was part of the interim nuclear agreement, JPOA, that was signed last year and is now extended until November.

File photo: The Boeing logo is seen at their headquarters in Chicago (JIM YOUNG/ REUTERS/Chicago Tribune, 24 July, 2014)

Iran, P5+1 Extend Talks for Four Months

Iran and P5+1 agreed today to extend the Iran nuclear talks for four months.

“While we have made tangible progress on some of the issues, there are still significant gaps on some of the core issues which will require more time and effort,” EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton and Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said in a joint statement at a press conference. (Al-Monitor, 18 July)

Under the terms of extension agreed to in Vienna Friday, Iran will convert all of its 20% enriched uranium into fuel for the Tehran Research Reactor.

“We will continue to halt the progress of Iran's nuclear program in key areas (during the four months extension),” said Secretary of State John Kerry.

In return, the P5+1 “will continue to suspend the sanctions we agreed to under the JPOA and will allow Iran access to $2.8 billion of its restricted assets,” Kerry added.

Obama: Real Progress in Nuclear Talks – Significant Gaps Remain

Hints Negotiations Will Be Extended

 

President Obama said on Wednesday evening that Iran and P5+1 have made “real progress in several areas” in their nuclear talks, but “significant gaps” remain. Obama said he would consult with Congress and allies to “determine whether additional time is necessary to extend negotiations” beyond the 20 July deadline.

“Clear to me that we’ve made real progress in several areas… we have a way forward,” Obama said.

Latest Round of Nuclear Talks Ends in Vienna

No Visible Signs of Progress

The latest round of nuclear talks between Iran and the world powers ended in Vienna today without any visible signs of progress. Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif told reporters that the other side is "far away from realism," echoing what Western diplomats have been saying about some of Iran’s demands. U.S. chief negotiator Wendy Sherman said Iran must take "necessary steps" before 20 July expiration of JPOA, the current interim nuclear agreement. The two sides, however, agreed to meet again on 2 July.

‘Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action’ – But Substantial Differences Remain

Drafting of the final Iran nuclear accord got underway in Vienna on Wednesday, but there are reports that many substantial differences remain, including the number of centrifuges Iran could maintain in its nuclear program. Al-Monitor reports that the Russian and Chinese negotiator, in an unusual development, said Iran needed to revise its demands for large numbers of centrifuges, joining the U.S. and the EU on the issue.

It appears that the parties, Iran and p5+1, have agreed on the title of the final agreement: “Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.” Aside from that title, which could soon be called JCPOA, apparently not much progress on the text of the agreement has been made so far. This latest round of negotiations was scheduled to end on Friday.

From what is reported of the talks so far, it seems that signing the JCPOA by 20 July deadline seems increasingly unlikely, and the six-month transition period under the current interim JPOA needs to be renewed.

Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif still sounded optimistic, saying the final deal could be struck in July. But Mr. Zarif’s optimism could be because of his zeal to finalize the deal and to have the sanctions lifted as soon as possible. Iran was spending billions of dollars on the Syrian war, and now might be forced to spend billions of dollars more on the Iraqi conflict. The country needs to sell oil and use global banking system to finance the two wars. Considering that urgent need, Zarif might be saying something profound: The JCPOA will be signed, Iran will sign it, even if it has to give in on its demands, including the number of centrifuges.

‘Promising Trends’ in Nuclear Talks – Iran

Past Work on EBW Detonators Still Unresolved

Iran’s Minister of Economy Ali Tayyebnia said today Tehran was satisfied with the “promising trends” in nuclear talks with the West.

“Both sides have realized that the talks should have a positive outcome,” Tayyebnia said. (Fars News Agency, 31 May)

Tayyebnia's sentiment echoed Foreign Minister Javad Zarif’s assessment after his talks with EU’s foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton last week that the West now has the “political will” to reach a comprehensive deal with Iran.

After the failure to make progress in talks with P5+1 in mid-May, and the subsequent inconclusive report by IAEA on the so-called possible military dimensions to Iran’s nuclear program, the comments by senior Iranian officials seem to be aimed at reassuring a somewhat skeptical public at home that the West is serious about ending the nuclear impasse with Iran.

The last round of talks in Vienna that ended on 17 May failed to start the much-anticipated drafting process of the final agreement; in what Iranian senior negotiator Abbas Araqchi called a meeting that made “no progress.” Later a report published by IAEA left the question of previous Iranian nuclear weapons work still unanswered.

Iran and IAEA had agreed last November to end all ambiguities about the development of Exploding Bridge Wire (EBW) detonators that are used to initiate detonation reaction in explosive materials and commonly used in nuclear weapons. IAEA and Iranians held a technical-level meeting on 13 May to give Iran an opportunity to show that any previous EBW work were not part of a nuclear weapon program. The subsequent report published by the agency said the analysis of information provided by the Iranians was on-going. 


The same IAEA report said, however, that Iran was on track to fully comply with its commitments under the Joint Plan of Action (JPOA) by 20 July deadline. If IAEA could not certify by July deadline that Iran’s work on EBW detonators were not related to nuclear weapons, however, then reaching a final agreement before the deadline could become problematic.

Nuclear Agreement ‘Very Likely’ - Rouhani

Serious Unresolved Issues - Seeking Ways to Resolve Them

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani told reporters in Shanghai today that he was “optimistic” about the nuclear talks with P5+1 and that it was “very likely” the two sides reach a comprehensive agreement before the 20 July expiration date of the Joint Plan of Action (JPOA).

However, two Western diplomats told the Associated Press after Rouhani’s news conference that they were not as optimistic. AP quoted them as saying the two sides were not much closer than they were in February, at the start of the talks in Vienna.

Meanwhile, IAEA is expected to report on Friday that Iran is honoring JPOA, including an end to its 20-percent enrichment program.

A number of key issues still need to be resolved before any comprehensive agreement could be finalized; starting with the number of centrifuges Iran could operate. As is, Iran has some 10,000 machines in operation, with some 9,000 installed but not operational. The West wants to limit the number to few thousands to prevent rapid breakout capability on part of Iran. With Iran arguing that it would need 4-5 times more centrifuges that it currently operates just to provide the fuel for a single nuclear power reactor it plans to build in future.

The difference on this issue is so wide that a new way of approaching Iran’s needs for enriched uranium should be found. There must be more than one way to skin a cat, so to speak! Numbers in 50,000-100,000 range will not be acceptable to the West. But significantly fewer numbers of advanced centrifuges might satisfy Iran’s needs, which could provide a possible compromise on the issue.

The duration of the comprehensive agreement has also become a matter of dispute; with Iran arguing for an agreement that could reach its goals in a much shorter period than the P5+1 is proposing. This is not a showstopper and a compromise could more easily be found. As is the case with Arak IR-40 heavy water reactor. The two sides have almost resolved this issue through changing the design of the reactor in a way to produce a minimum amount of plutonium, hence blocking an alternative route for the country to build a nuclear weapon.

The question of ballistic missiles remains a serious issue. The UN Security Council Resolutions 1929, passed unanimously against Iran, prohibits production and deployment of ballistic missiles designed to carry nuclear weapons. On 11 May, during a visit to IRGC’s ballistic missile exhibition in Tehran, Ayatollah Khamenei made his strongest public comments on the issue, ridiculing the West for even suggesting a limit on the country’s ballistic missiles. The P5+1, however, wants to resolve the issue before lifting all UN sanctions as part of a final agreement. A compromise being floated is to limit the type of Iran’s missiles to medium range ballistic missiles (MRBM) that it currently deploys.

The post-agreement inspection regime of Iranian nuclear facilities by IAEA and the future of Fordo enrichment unit, are among other issues that still need to be resolved.

The collapse of the talks is an unwanted option for both sides. It will seriously hurt Rouhani politically inside Iran and could start a very serious economic downturn in the country. The failure of the talks could also lead to heightened military tensions in the neighborhood and a significant increase in Western military posture in the Persian Gulf. There are so much at stakes here that could force the two sides to compromise on all the unresolved issues, making Rouhani’s prediction today in Shanghai to be fulfilled after all.