Syria Ceasefire Could Happen within Weeks – Kerry

Secretary of State John Kerry said today in Paris that a ceasefire between Syrian government and opposition could be just weeks away from reality. He told reporters that the ceasefire envisioned by the political process agreed upon in Vienna on Saturday would exponentially help efforts to fight the Islamic State.

“That’s a gigantic step,” Kerry said. “If we can get that done, that opens up the aperture for a whole bunch of things. We’re weeks away conceivably from the possibility of a big transition in Syria… We are not talking about months, we are talking about weeks hopefully.” (AP, 17 November)

Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia will host a meeting of Syrian opposition by mid-December, at which they are to agree on a delegation to send to talks with representatives from Assad’s government. Once those negotiations begin, a ceasefire is to take effect, according to the agreement reached in Syria talks in Vienna on Saturday.

Photo: Secretary of State John Kerry in Paris (Chesnot/Getty Images/AP)

Syria Insurgents Seize Key Town on Hama-Aleppo Road

A Day After Iran-led Forces Recapture Alternative LOC to Aleppo 

Syrians rebels led by the Jihadist group Jund al-Aqsa today seized the town of Morek, last government-held town on the main highway between Aleppo and the city of Hama to its south.

“Jund al-Aqsa and opposition groups have seized full control of the town of Morek after a fierce offensive,” the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights (SOHR) said. (AFP, 5 November)

Last month, the Syrian forces launched a major counteroffensive in Hama province with Russian air and fire support, and the main Aleppo-Hama highway as a principal objective. The loss of Morek is the first major setback for Russian-led offensives in Syria.

The capture of Morek comes just a day after Iran-led pro-regime forces recaptured the only road into the government-held side of Aleppo from the Islamic State fighters, an alternative route the government uses to reach the western sector of Aleppo City, which is under its control.

Photo credit: Photo from Morek posted by Jund al-Aqsa on social media (Twitter)

U.S. to Deploy Special Operations Forces to Syria

The White House said on Friday it will deploy several dozen U.S. Special Operations troops in Kurdish-controlled northeast Syria to advise and assist Kurdish security forces in an effort to break the military stalemate against the Islamic State. The special operators will also help gather battlefield intelligence and facilitate U.S.-led coalition airstrikes against Islamic State targets.

The U.S. will also deploy a dozen of A-10 attack aircraft and an equal number of F-15 fighter jets to Incirlik Air Base in Turkey near the Syrian border to support ground operations against ISIL. A key goal of the current plan is to help opposition and Kurdish security forces to cut supply lines and communications between Raqqa, Islamic State’s administrative capital in Syria, and Mosul, its self-declared capital in Iraq, as critical step to push ISIL out of both cities.

Meanwhile, farther south and west, Russian warplanes and Iran-led pro-regime forces under the command of Gen. Soleimani are engaged in a three-week-old offensive on multiple fronts against the opposition forces and ISIL around the city of Aleppo, Syria’s largest.

Photo credit: Fighting in the strategic town of Safira, 16 miles southeast of Aleppo, between Iran-led forces and ISIL; 31 October 2015 (Twitter)

Joint Statement on Syria Talks

The following is the final communiqué issued today by the 19 participants in Syria Talks in Vienna:

"Meeting in Vienna, on October 30, 2015, China, Egypt, the EU, France, Germany, Iran, Iraq, Italy, Jordan, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Russia, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, United Arab Emirates, the United Kingdom, the United Nations, and the United States [“the participants”] came together to discuss the grave situation in Syria and how to bring about an end to the violence as soon as possible.

The participants had a frank and constructive discussion, covering major issues. While substantial differences remain among the participants, they reached a mutual understanding on the following:

1. Syria’s unity, independence, territorial integrity, and secular character are fundamental.
2. State institutions will remain intact.
3. The rights of all Syrians, regardless of ethnicity or religious denomination, must be protected.
4. It is imperative to accelerate all diplomatic efforts to end the war.
5. Humanitarian access will be ensured throughout the territory of Syria, and the participants will increase support for internally displaced persons, refugees, and their host countries. 
6. Da'esh, and other terrorist groups, as designated by the U.N. Security Council, and further, as agreed by the participants, must be defeated.  
7. Pursuant to the 2012 Geneva Communique and U.N. Security Council Resolution 2118, the participants invited the U.N. to convene representatives of the Government of Syria and the Syrian opposition for a political process leading to credible, inclusive, non-sectarian governance, followed by a new constitution and elections.  These elections must be administered under U.N. supervision to the satisfaction of the governance and to the highest international standards of transparency and accountability, free and fair, with all Syrians, including the diaspora, eligible to participate.
8. This political process will be Syrian led and Syrian owned, and the Syrian people will decide the future of Syria.  
9. The participants together with the United Nations will explore modalities for, and implementation of, a nationwide ceasefire to be initiated on a date certain and in parallel with this renewed political process.

The participants will spend the coming days working to narrow remaining areas of disagreement, and build on areas of agreement.  Ministers will reconvene within two weeks to continue these discussions."


Top photo: Syria Talks; Vienna, 30 October 2015 (ndtv)
Bottom photo: Announcing the results of the Syria Talks; from left: Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, UN Special Envoy for Syria Staffan de Mistura, and Secretary of State John Kerry (AFP)

Putin Calls for Cooperation between Washington and Moscow on Syria - UPDATE

Russia Would Provide Support to Armed Opposition Groups in Syria Willing to Fight the Islamic State - Putin

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Thursday called for cooperation between Washington and Moscow on Syria and beyond, saying it is now a crucial moment in East-West relations not unlike the end of the Cold War, the New York Times reported.

“Syria, despite the dramatic situation there now, might become a model for partnership for the sake of our joint interests, for the resolution of our problems, which concern everyone, for working out an effective system of risk management,” said Putin, seemingly laying out a broad plan for global cooperation with the United States and the West in general. (The New York Times, 23 October)

Putin said he hoped the beginning of such cooperation would emerge from talks in Vienna on Friday between the foreign ministers of Russia, Turkey and Saudi Arabia as well as the U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry.

Putin made his remarks in Sochi at Valdai Discussion Club, an annual gathering of Russian experts, sharing the stage with regional figures, including Ali Larijani, Iran’s speaker of Majlis. Putin added the Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, who visited him in Moscow earlier in the week, was willing to make a common cause with the armed opponents, as long as they were willing to fight the Islamic State.

“I will pull back the curtain a little on my talks with President Assad,” Putin said, adding that he had proposed providing Russian support to armed opposition groups in Syria that are willing to fight the Islamic State.

“What would be your view if we were to support their efforts in fighting the Islamic State in the same way we are supporting the Syrian Army?” Putin said he asked, and Assad answered, “I would view that positively.” (The New York Times, 23 October)

The Russian leader emphasized that any political transition in Syria would have to be led by the current government, but added that it “should be a transparent process with international monitoring.”

Putin as well as Larijani in their speeches rejected proposals for Syria’s partition, calling them a formula for endless warfare and dangerous gains by the militants.

UPDATE: The foreign ministers of the United States, Russia, Saudi Arabia and Turkey met on Friday in Vienna to put forward new ideas for a political transition in Syria. They agreed to meet again next week in an expanded format, which could include foreign ministers from Iran and other regional countries.

“I am convinced… that today’s meeting was constructive and productive and succeeded in surfacing some ideas… which I hope have a possibility of changing the dynamics,” U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said after the meeting. (AP, 23 October)

Top photo: Russian President Vladimir Putin at Sochi gathering (BBC)
Bottom photo: From left: Foreign ministers of Turkey, United States, Saudi Arabia and Russia during their meeting on Syria; Vienna, Friday 23 October 2015 (Twitter)

Three Russians Killed in Latakia

First Russian Casualties in Syrian Civil War

Three Russian servicemen fighting alongside pro-regime forces in Syria were killed today and several more wounded when a shell hit their position in the coastal province of Latakia, a senior pro-government source told Reuters on Tuesday. If confirmed, the deaths, which occurred on Monday night, would be the first known Russian military casualties in the Syrian civil war. Russia began its direct military intervention on 30 September. Russia has not said how many combat troops it has deployed in Syria. (Reuters, 20 October)

Meanwhile, the Russian-led coalition of Syrian army and its irregular NDF forces, Iran’s Quds Force and IRGC forces, the Lebanese Hezbollah and other foreign Shia militias, mostly Afghans and Pakistanis, continued the fifth day of their offensive near Aleppo, Syria’s largest city. Russian Defense Ministry spokesman Maj. Gen. Igor Konashenkov today told Russia’s news agency Interfax that in the past 24 hours, Russian Aerospace Force carried out 55 combat sorties in Aleppo, Latakia, Idlib, Hama and Damascus provinces. He added the airstrikes were carried out by Su-24M, Su-25SM and Su-34 aircraft.

The five-days-old operation in Aleppo has had initial successes, with pro-government forces retaking some towns and villages around the strategic city. It was not clear, however, when the pro-government forces would begin their offensive on the city itself, which was expected to have taken place by now.

UPDATE: Russian embassy in Damascus had denied the Reuters report, saying the embassy had no report on the death of Russian servicemen in Latakia, Fars News Agency reported. Reuters, however, quoted the director of the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, Rami Abdulrahman, as saying that observatory sources have confirmed the deaths of Russians.

File photo: Russian Sukhoi Su-34 Fullback heavy strike fighter (ausairpower.net)

Syria: Battlefield Update

Syrian army, Lebanese Hezbollah and other Quds Force-led fighters supported by Russian warplanes made advances against the opposition on Monday in the fiercest clashes since Wednesday, when pro-Assad forces launched their first new offensive backed by Russian air power. 

The Syrian Observatory of Human Rights (SOHR) said pro-Assad forces seized the southern part of the town of Kafr Nabuda in Hama province in western Syria. The capture of Kafr Nabuda would bring government forces closer to opposition-held positions along the main highway that links Syria’s main cities. In Idlib, the other area under intense Russian bombardments, the government forces captured the town of Tal Skik in southern part of the province. Idlib lies east of Assad’s stronghold of Latakia.

UPDATE: Reports on Twitter accounts on Monday say the fight between the pro- and anti-Assad forces in Kafr Nabudah has intensified, with some saying the opposition forces are pushing the government forces out of southern Kafr Nabudah that they had captured earlier today.

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Meanwhile, ISIL scored significant gains on Friday near Aleppo, where the insurgents took a number of villages near the city and threatening to cut off an important route north to the Turkish border. An opposition source told Reuters that Daesh has exploited the Russian airstrikes and the preoccupation of the Free Syrian Army in its battles in Hama to advance in northern Aleppo.

On Thursday, Gen. Hossein Hamedani, the most senior IRGC officer in Syria, was killed in action. SOHR said the general was killed near the Kweiris military airbase east of Aleppo. Aircraft based there are often used to bomb Al Bab, a city held by ISIL.

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The Washington Post reported that BGM-71 TOW antitank missiles provided to the Free Syrian Army are playing a prominent role in shaping the Syrian battlespace. The Post quoted Jeff White of the Washington Institute that the TOWs have “offset the regime’s advantage in armor. The TOWs have cut away at that edge, and that’s what we’ve seen playing out. It’s like the Stinger in Afghanistan.” The opposition claim they have took out 24 tanks and armored vehicles on the first day of the new Russian-backed offensive, which began on Wednesday. (The Washington Post, 12 October)

The New York Times also reported on Monday that the pace of antitank missile deliveries to the opposition has picked up since Russia began providing air support to pro-Assad forces in their new offensive against the opposition last week.

UPDATE: U.S. forces on Sunday carried out an airdrop 50 tons of small arms ammunition to Syrian opposition, two weeks after Russia raised the stakes by entering in the four-year-old civil war on Assad’s side, Reuters reported today.

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Image credit: A frame grab taken from video footage released by Russia’s Defense Ministry on 9 October 2015, shows Russian Su-34 Fullback fighter-bomber dropping a bomb in Syria. (Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation/Reuters)

Senior Hezbollah Leader Killed in Syria

Hasan Hossian al-Haj, the senior Hezbollah commander in Syria, was killed on Friday in Idlib province, Syria, pro-Hezbollah Mayaadeen TV reported today. (Xinhua, 10 October) Al Haj was reportedly killed during a battle against Jaish al-Fateh, a Nusra-led coalition of opposition forces in Idlib province.  

Al Haj became the second senior leader of Iran-led pro-Assad coalition killed in Syria in the past two days. On Thursday, Gen. Hossien Hamedani, the most senior IRGC oficer in Syria, was killed in the outskirts of Aleppo.

Photo credit: The funeral for Hasan Hossian al-Haj, a Lebanese Hezbollah senior leader in Syria; 10 October 15 (Xinhua)

Syria: Government Forces Begin Ground Offensive Backed by Russia Air and Sea Power

Cruise Missiles Fired from Russian Ship off Iran’s Caspian Coast

Russian cruise missiles fired from warships in the Caspian Sea struck opposition-held targets inside Syria on Wednesday as Syrian government forces opened a ground offensive against the rebels. BBC reported the missiles were fired from Russian ships off the Iranian coast in southern Caspian Sea, flying through the Iranian and Iraqi airspace before entering Syria to hit their targets.

In Moscow, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said four Russian warships carried out 26 missile strikes against 11 targets, which he did not identify. “The cruise missiles were fired from the water of the Caspian Sea from 1,500 kilometers (900 miles) away,” Shoigu said in a televised meeting with President Putin today.

The comments came after a wave of Russian sea and air attacks that were launched in coordination with Syrian government forces seeking to reclaim territory lost to the opposition in the recent months. The operations were concentrated in the western province of Hama and northwestern province of Idlib.

Image credit: An image made from video posted by Russian Defense Ministry on 7 Octocer showing Russia firing sea-launched cruise missiles at opposition targets in Syria off the coast of Caspian Sea (Military Times)

Russia Hints at Deploying Ground Forces in Syria

Moving Artillery and Rockets to Idlib and Homs

Russia appears to be ready to deploy ground forces in Syria. Today, Adm. Vladimir Komoyedov, who chairs Defense and Security Committee in the Russian Federation Council, said Russian “volunteers” could soon be deployed to Syria to support the Syrian army on combat operations, Russia’s news agencies reported.

CNN also reported that Russia is moving artillery and rockets from its base of operations at Latakia airport to Idlib and Homs for a possible ground operations against the opposition forces.

Russia has in the past successfully deployed its Special Forces, Spetsnaz, for counter-insurgent operations, including in Chechnya, Crimea and eastern Ukraine. The volunteers heading to Syria could well include elements of Spetsnaz.

The addition of Russian ground forces into the battle, supported by Russian airstrikes, would dramatically elevate Russian involvement in the 4.5-year civil war.

The opposition forces captured Idlib province earlier this year and were pushing to capture the neighboring Al Gharb area that separated them from the coast of Latakia, the traditional Alawai stronghold. The fall of Latakia would have been fatal to the regime. The Russian ground forces could now support the Syrian army to push the opposition forces out of Al Gharb and save Latakia for Assad.

It is not clear where and how the Russians could join forces with the Iranians, the Hezbollah and other foreign Shia militias. The Iran-led coalition has been engaged in heavy combat with the opposition in Aleppo recently. Since the beginning of its direct military intervention in Syria two weeks ago, however, Russia has conducted airstrikes against the opposition forces in Aleppo.

Russia's goal in Syria is becoming clearer. Support Assad rather than pushing for a political solution and a transition from Assad. And doing so by concentrating its attacks on opposition forces, and not ISIL. 

File photo: Russian Spetsnaz (Wikipedia)