Syrian Arab Army and NDF advances during past 48 hours

SANA video still of SyAA 2S1 Gvozdika self-propelled howitzers at Latakia countryside, dated 13NOV15

Syrian Army Captures Several Hilltops and Villages on the Idlib-Latakia Border by Leith Fadel, dated 16NOV15:

The Syrian Arab Army’s 103rd Brigade of the Republican Guard is on a roll in northeastern Latakia, capturing several sites from the Free Syrian Army’s “Liwaa Suqour Al-Ghaab”, Harakat Ahrar Al-Sham, and the Syrian Al-Qaeda group “Jabhat Al-Nusra” at the Latakia-Idlib axis that borders the Jisr Al-Shughour District (Islamist rebel stronghold).

On Sunday morning, the Syrian Arab Army’s 103rd Brigade – in coordination with the National Defense Forces (NDF) of Qurdaha, the Syrian Social Nationalist Party (SSNP), and Muqawama Souri (Syrian Resistance) – launched an assault on Raweesat Iskendar in the Latakia Governorate’s northeastern countryside, targeting the Islamist rebel defenses at Point 1143 and Point 1149 inside this village on the Latakia-Idlib axis.

Following a series of intense firefights with the Islamist rebels, the Syrian Arab Army’s 103rd Brigade and their allies imposed full control over Point 1143 and Point 1149 en route to their capture of Raweesat Iskendar in Jabal Al-Akrad (Kurdish Mountains).

In addition to their success at Raweesat Iskendar, the Syrian Arab Army’s 103rd brigade and their allies imposed full control over the villages of Beit Abu Risha and Katf Al-Sa’our in Jabal Al-Akrad after a fierce battle with Jabhat Al-Nusra, Harakat Ahrar Al-Sham, and Liwaa Suqour Al-Ghaab.

To conclude the day, the Syrian Armed Forces conducted one final on the Islamist rebel defenses at Kabani to the north of Raweesat Iskendar, seizing this village after Jabhat Al-Nusra withdrew from their posts in order to evade the swarming Russian MI-24 Hind Helicopter Gunships.

Military situation map for NE Latakia dated 15NOV15

SANA video still depicting SyAA armor at Latakia countryside, dated 13NOV15

SANA video still of SyAA 2S1 Gvozdika self-propelled howitzer at Latakia countryside, dated 13NOV15. Unit appears as possible recent delivery into SyAA service.

Detail of of possible recently delivered SyAA 2S1 Gvozdika self-propelled howitzer at Latakia countryside, dated 13NOV15.

SANA video still depicting SyAA armor at Latakia countryside, dated 13NOV15

SyAA armor depicted at the Palmyra front in Homs Governorate, dated 13NOV15

Syrian Army Advances Deep Inside the Palmyra Triangle After Capturing Several ISIS Sites by Leith Fadel, dated 16NOV15:

On Saturday morning, the Syrian Arab Army’s 67th Brigade of the 18th Tank Division – in coordination with the 550th Regiment of the 18th Tank Division and the National Defense Forces (NDF) of Homs City – struck back against ISIS in the Palmyra Traingle, capturing several sites under the aforementioned terrorist group’s control, while destroying several military installations in the process.

The Syrian Arab Army’s 67th Brigade and their allies made their first breakthrough at the imperative village of Al-Bayarat, killing a number of militants from ISIS before they reportedly captured both the eastern and western groves from the terrorist group.

With the capture of Al-Bayarat on Saturday, the Syrian Arab Army’s 67th Brigade and their allies shifted their attention to the villages of Al-Tamtheel and Al-Kassarat that are located just west of Palmyra.

According to a battlefield journalist on the ground with the 67th Brigade, the Syrian Armed Forces and their allies made several advances inside the villages of Al-Tamtheel, Al-Dawa, and Al-Kassarat, while also advancing to the Ancient Palmyra Quarries that are located 4km north of the city.

Palmyra is strategically located along the Homs-Deir Ezzor Highway; this roadway was used by the Syrian Armed Forces to reinforce their entrenched soldiers combatting ISIS inside the Deir Ezzor Governorate of eastern Syria.

SyAA T-72 type main battle tanks depicted at the Palmyra front in Homs Governorate, dated 13NOV15

Syrian Army Declares Fire Control Over the Strategic Homs-Damascus Highway by Leith Fadel, dated 16NOV15:

[T]he Syrian Arab Army’s 105th Brigade has successfully recaptured almost every site lost to Jaysh Al-Islam, leaving only 300 meters left to capture in order to roll back all of the Islamist rebel gains along the Homs-Damascus Highway in the East Ghouta region of rural east Damascus.

On Sunday morning, the Syrian Arab Army’s 105th Brigade – in coordination with the National Defense Forces (NDF) 0f Damascus and the Palestine Liberation Army (PLA) – took control of another hilltop that overlooks the village of Tal Kurdi in the Douma countryside; this aforementioned site allowed the Islamist rebels to pick-off vehicles traveling along the highway.

As a result of this successful operation on Sunday morning, the Syrian Arab Army’s 105th Brigade has declared the Homs-Damascus Highway under the fire-control of the Syrian Armed Forces and their allies.

According to a military source inside the Syrian capital, the recent declaration of fire-control means that the Homs-Damascus Highway is only open to the Syrian Armed Forces; it is not open to the public, despite Jaysh Al-Islam’s withdrawal from the southern and northern flanks of this highway.

Military situation map for Eastern Idlib/South Aleppo, dated 15NOV15  [source: miladvisor] 

Video still of Iran-backed Iraqi Kata'ib Hezbollah T-72 type main battle tank, claimed depicted during Syrian offensive SW of Aleppo.

Video still of Iran-backed Iraqi Kata'ib Hezbollah infantrymen, claimed depicted during Syrian offensive SW of Aleppo

Iran-backed Iraqi Kata'ib Sayyid Al-Shuhada fighting force members bearing trophies of war; claimed depiction in the southern Aleppo countryside; imagery appearing 15NOV15 on social media.

IRGC-QF Maj. Gen. Qasem Soleimani with Sheikh Akram Al-Kaabi (R1), Secretary General of Iran-backed Iraqi Harakat Hezbollah al-Nujaba (HHN); imagery appearing 15NOV15 on social media.

Syrian pro-government forces relieve Kuweiris Airbase, advance at southern front

Members of SyAA "Cheetah Forces," unit responsible for spearheading the relief of Kuweiris Airbase

According to Chris Tomson at Al-Masdar News, dated 11NOV15:

[T]he Syrian Arab Army’s Tiger Forces (Cheetah Forces Team 6) finally managed to liberate Kuweiris Airbase after the area had been besieged for 35 months by the Islamic State of Iraq and Al-Sham (ISIS).

Currently, Tiger Forces are attempting to thicken the dangerously thin supply line that cuts deep into previously ISIS-held territory; however, this unit is set to be reployed to Hama, leaving the future of this base in the Deir Hafer Plains unknown.

On the southern front, the Syrian Arab Army’s 4th Mechanized Division and Hezbollah have captured approximately 250 square kilometers of territory in just one month of fighting the Islamist opposition fighters.

In the last 48 hours alone, the Syrian Arab Army and Hezbollah have captured 5 villages that are located south of the strategic town of Al-Hader while the Islamist insurgents were only able to recapture 1 village from the pro-government forces.

Syrian Army and Hezbollah soldiers on this frontline have seen themselves advance to areas which had previously been rebel-held since the summer of 2012.

According to Leith Fadel at Al-Masdar News, dated 11NOV15:

On Tuesday morning, the Syrian Arab Army’s 4th Mechanized Division – in coordination with Hezbollah, the National Defense Forces (NDF) of Aleppo City, the Al-Ba’ath Battalions, and several Iranian and Iraq paramilitary units – expanded their control over a number of points in the southern Aleppo countryside after a series of intense firefights with the Islamist rebels of Harakat Ahrar Al-Sham, Harakat Nouriddeen Al-Zinki, the Syrian Al-Qaeda group “Jabhat Al-Nusra”, and Liwaa Suqour Al-Sham.

The Syrian Armed Forces and the Lebanese Resistance began their assault in Markahalah, where they were confronted by a large contingent of fighters from Harakat Ahrar Al-Sham and Harakat Nouriddeen Al-Zinki at the eastern perimeter of this small village located directly west of Tal Mamou; this aforementioned village was captured by the Syrian Armed Forces and Lebanese Resistance the day before this successful assault.

Not long after they began their assault at this village, the Syrian Armed Forces and Lebanese Resistance imposed full control over Markahalah, killing several enemy combatants from Harakat Ahrar Al-Sham and Harakat Nouriddeen Al-Zinki in the process of its capture.

Following the capture of Markahalah, the Syrian Armed Forces and Lebanese Resistance turned their attention to the isolated village of Maryoudah, where they once again broke-through the Islamist rebel defenses and imposed full control over this area that is located directly south of Al-‘Eis.

In the last 48 hours, the Syrian Armed Forces and Hezbollah have captured 4 villages from Harakat Ahrar Al-Sham and Harakat Nouriddeen Al-Zinki, while only conceding the village of Talaylat to the Islamist rebels after a violent firefight at the strategic city of Al-Hadher.

COMMENTARY: Beyond the obvious symbolism and morale boost generated by the relief  Kuweiris Airbase, these multi-pronged Syrian pro-government attacks carried out with Russian/Iranian/Lebanese/Iraqi support are exacting a toll on Al-Qaeda (AQ), AQ-linked armed groups and ISIL. Where Syrian pro-government forces had previously been disadvantaged in the war of attrition with aforementioned armed groups, now enabled by RuAF fire support from the air and ground support from Iran, Iraq and Lebanon, Syrian pro-government forces appear to have wrested back the initiative in this four year-old conflict. What's more, these military gains are sure to play out in the diplomatic sphere when conflict resolution talks resume on 14NOV15 in Vienna, Austria.

It must be said the Russians enjoy the advantage over the United States in possessing reliable ground force partners in the war against Al Qaeda and ISIL in Syria. The reliable ground partner of the United States in this conflict consists of Kurds, where a NATO ally provides limitations on the utility of this force as does its ethnic composition in advancing into Arab regions.

There also exists another Russian advantage in that Syrian pro-government forces rally behind the Baath government. This is in contrast to neighboring Iraq, where the United States is enmeshed in intra-Shia political struggles, as well as attempting to re-enfranchise the Sunni populace.

Military situation map for eastern Aleppo countryside, dated 10NOV15  [source: Peto Lucem]

Iran-organized National Defense Force (NDF) members at recaptured Sheikh Ahmad village, near Kuweiris Airbase

Iran-backed Iraqi Kata'ib Hezbollah fighting forces flags appearing in the southern Aleppo town of Azzan

Fr. Gabriel Dawood, a Syriac Orthodox priest of the Cathedral of St. George in Damascus, with Syrian pro-government Sootoro (Gozarto Protection Force) light infantrymen at the ancient village of Sadad in Homs Governorate.

Sootoro (Gozarto Protection Force) light infantrymen audience before Fr. Gabriel Dawood

Flags of the Syrian pro-government Sootoro (Gozarto Protection Force) Christian fighting force, composed of members of the Assyrian/Syriac and some members of the Armenian communities in Syria.

T-62 main battle tank of Sootoro (Gozarto Protection Force) Christian fighting force, positioned at a frontline near Sadad village in Homs Governorate.

Hammer into anvil during 2015 Syrian Offensive: RuAF airstrikes and the Syrian pro-government ground force partners.

Pro-Syrian fighting forces reestablish LOC to Aleppo

Syrian Arab Republic media on 04NOV15 claimed its forces have reestablished line of communication (LOC) to western Aleppo, by means of securing the Ithriya-Khannaser highway.

SOHR confirmed the Syrian Arab Republic frontline with ISIL had been successfully pushed forward about 10 kilometers from the route.

Following consists of social media imagery uploaded this week depicting Pro-Syrian government and Iran-backed forces on the southern approaches to Aleppo:

Pro-Syrian government T-72 main battle tank display ISIL flag trophy, claimed depiction on the Ithriya-Khannaser Highway.

Pro-government supply vehicle claimed carrying supplies on the Ithriya-Khannaser Highway, on 04NOV15 breaking the siege imposed on Western Aleppo by ISIL.

Syrian Arab Republic supply convoy along Ithriya-Khannaser Highway

Syrian Arab Republic forces along Ithriya-Khannaser Highway

Light infantry belonging to force fighting on the side of the Syrian Arab Republic, securing the Ithriya-Khannaser Highway.

Armor and motorized infantry belonging to forces of fighting on the side of Syrian Arab Republic, at the Ithriya-Khannaser Highway.  [photo:AFP]

Iran-backed forces equipped with Iran-supplied Safir ("Ambassador") tactical vehicles; claimed depiction at the southern approaches to Aleppo.

Iran-backed forces equipped with Iran-supplied Safir ("Ambassador") tactical vehicles; claimed depiction at the southern approaches to Aleppo.

Motorized infantry on motorbikes in manner of deployment consistent with IRGC/Basij; claimed depiction at the southern approaches to Aleppo.

Iran-backed forces deploying 2S1 Gvozdika ("Carnation") type 122 mm self-propelled howitzers,;claimed depiction at the southern approaches to Aleppo.

Iran-backed forces deploying improvised rocket-assisted munition (IRAM) launcher vehicles; claimed depiction at the southern approaches to Aleppo.

Iran-backed Iraqi Katai'b Hezbollah fighting force fielding T-72 main battle tanks; claimed depiction at the southern approaches to Aleppo.

Iran-backed Iraqi Katai'b Hezbollah fighting force members equipped with M16 type assault rifle and PKM general purpose machine gun; claimed depiction at the southern approaches to Aleppo.

Iran-backed Iraqi Katai'b Hezbollah fighting force member equipped with SPG-9 Kopye (“Spear”) 73 mm recoilless gun; claimed depiction at the southern approaches to Aleppo.

IRIAF Lockheed C-130H Hercules (L-382), serial 5-8552 (cn 382-4594) at a Syrian airbase, supporting Iranian mission in Syria. Figure in foreground is a SyAAF colonel, possibly base commandfer.

Iran Military & allied Iraq Shia Militia perspectives on Iraqi political reform

Brief perspectives on Iraqi political reform offered by Iranian Maj. Gen. Hassan Firouzabadi at Sepah News, and Iraqi Shia Militias as surveyed by Institute for the Study of War (ISW). Very brief commentary provided at end of post.

According to Sepah News:

[T]he Basij commander, Maj. Gen. Hassan Firouzabadi, Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces explained in an interview: “evaluations of Iraq’ central government [show] that it has operated very well; by obtaining important achievements in stabilizing Iraq’s sovereignty and protecting its territorial integrity and independence, [the government] has been successful against the enemies of the nation of Iraq.”

[Firouzabadi] pointed to the formation of some mischievous activities in the country… “calling for street protests by stimulating specific and sometimes non-Muslim groups, and the blowing up of Iran-Iraq power lines and other vandalism.”

Chief of General Staff of the Armed Forces said that each successful revolution has seen such noise and obstructions against itself… The revolutionary people of Iraq should show self-restraint more than ever, and must help the central government on the path of progress and overcoming the enemies.”

-------------------------

According to Theodore Bell, Patrick Martin, Jessica Lewis McFate, and Kimberly Kagan at ISW:

Iranian-backed Badr Organization endorsed the peaceful protests on August 6, prior to Ayatollah Sistani’s sermon, but did not declare its intent to participate and warned against losing focus on the anti-ISIS fight. Badr issued a brief statement following the sermon in support of Sistani’s call for reform, without providing any additional details on either the sermon or the demonstrations. Amiri stated that he “added his voice” to the demonstrators, but that he could not participate because he was “busy” with the fight against ISIS, in line with Badr’s ongoing political agenda to promote itself as a capable national military force that will liberate tracts of ISIS-occupied Iraq. Kata’ib Hizbollah (KH), another Iranian-backed militia, did not issue a statement on the subject at all, despite having stated its interest on July 18 in interrogating the Electricity Minister, seeking to punish corruption, and ending the electricity crisis. The Nujaba Movement (NM), another Iranian proxy militia, had stated its intent to participate in the Friday protests but there was little indication of significant Iranian proxy participation in the largely-peaceful protests on Friday. The Iranian proxy groups’ limited public responses to the unfolding political developments are likely due their inability to rally direct opposition to Ayatollah Sistani as well as their preoccupation with anti-ISIS operations.

While AAH did not overtly participate in the demonstrations, AAH leader Qais al-Khazali, in a speech delivered on August 7, asserted that PM Abadi faced “a major historic responsibility” and that the PM should submit his resignation if he is unable to address the need for reforms. Khazali also used the speech to repeat AAH’s call for the transition to a presidential system, an initiative championed by AAH and widely regarded as a method by which to empower VP Maliki, whose relationship with AAH is well-established. In this context, Ayatollah Sistani’s sermon may be seen as an effort to empower PM Abadi against the political designs of AAH, its patrons in Qom and Tehran, and VP Maliki. AAH’s rhetoric therefore indicates the group’s political divergence from the majority of Iraq’s major Shi’a political actors and point to AAH’s intention to leverage the protests against PM Abadi to obstruct political reform by calling for the PM’s resignation and a transition to a presidential system, an initiative VP Maliki himself advocates. It will therefore remain important to monitor the development of protests in southern Iraq, where VP Maliki’s SLA is dominant, given that VP Maliki and AAH may seek to leverage the localized demonstrations against the national government.

COMMENTARY:  With current military efforts directed at Ramadi and Fallujah by ISF and PMF, it has to be conceded that popular unrest against the Iraqi government is viewed favorably as a potential lifeline by ISIL.

Political instability at a time when the country is occupied to such an extent by enemy forces would present a further challenge to all parties involved in military activities, aiming to defeat ISIL.

Weapons of Iran-backed PMF during Battle of Baiji, current phase

Open-source imagery of Iran-backed Popular Mobilization Forces during current phase of Battle of Baiji, Salahuddin campaign:

American supplied, formerly Iraqi Army Navistar 7000 series heavy lift vehicle, now in use as multiple IRAM launcher platform with Iran-backed Kata'ib Hezbollah.

Iran-supplied Safir ("Ambassador") tactical vehicle equipped with M40 type recoilless gun

Iranian-produced HEAT round for M40 type recoilless gun

MLR mounted on American-origin pickup truck, operated by Iran-backed Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq

Background: American supplied, formerly Iraqi Army Navistar 7000 series heavy lift vehicle, now in use as rocket launcher platform (possibly Qaher type IRAM) by Iran-backed PMF.

Iranian and American origin vehicles equipped with MLRs, operated by Iran-backed Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq

Iran-backed Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq paramilitaries equipped with AKM-type assault rifles

Iran-backed Asa'ib Ahl al-Haq paramilitary firing RPG-7 type rocket-propelled grenade launcher

American supplied, formerly Iraqi Army M113 armored personnel carrier; now operated by Iran-backed Kata'ib Hezbollah as an improvised infantry fighting vehicle.

Iran-backed Kata'ib Hezbollah paramilitary firing RPG-7 type rocket-propelled grenade 

Advancing Iran-backed Kata'ib Hezbollah paramilitary squad

Iran-backed Kata'ib Hezbollah paramilitary firing PKM type general purpose machine gun

Iran-backed Kata'ib Hezbollah infantry mortar position

Iran-backed Kata'ib Hezbollah operated vehicle in use as IRAM launcher platform

American supplied, formerly Iraqi Army Navistar 7000 series heavy lift vehicle, now in use as IRAM launcher platform with Iran-backed Kata'ib Hezbollah.

Shia clerics armed with AKM-type assault riifles, attached to Iran-backed PMF