Hezbollah Demonstration against anti-Islam movie, Beyond the Headlines!

Photo credit: RT.com, press TV

Mr. Nasrallah used the recent controversy of the anti-islam film as an opportunity to display his political power by calling for demonstration on September 16, and have them materialize on September 17th. If only Mr. Mousavi wielded the same power in Iran, but that's another story.

It must be said that the Hezbollah demonstration was well organized and PEACEFUL, in contrast to the violent demonstrations led by Sunni fundamentalists in other islamic countries.

The Hezbollah leader used the opportunity to refocus the anger on Israel and the USA, and try to appear to defend the Christians (some of whom are his allies in Lebanon, and others allies of Assad in Syria) from being blamed for the film, which was made by an Arab Christian.

Mr. Nasrallah called for the demonstrations on TV with a different banner in the background. He used a unifying Islamic banner of the prophet behind him, as opposed to the usual sectarian Shiite banners he is more accustomed to using. 

With the Hezbollah leader attending in person, despite the risk of assassination by the Israelis, this demonstration went a long way to demonstrate that Hezbollah is still locally powerful, regardless of the survivability of their allies, Iran and Syria--I'm sure by now every political party in Lebanon knows that. 

The only open question remaining is if the Saudis are willing to accept the message Hezbollah is trying to convey, and decide not to pursue their long standing efforts to eliminate, or at least weaken Hezbollah by all means necessary. I personally doubt that, as the Saudis seem to be very driven when it comes to sectarian conflicts, and aim to win the sectarian battle in the name of all Sunnis in the region.

I don't know if you knew, but the Hezbollah demonstrations had nothing to do with the anti-Islam movie; just FYI.

Ps. Please note the similarity between the iranian revolutionary guard corps (IRGC) logo, and the Hezbollah's logo. 

Reading List for Sunday, June 15 2008

This weekend's reading list contains topics relating to a potential war against Iran, the direction of Iran's Iraq policy, the EU-3 nuclear incentive offer to Iran and Iran's strategy in Lebanon. Patrick Clawson and Michael Eisenstadt describe the consequences of a preventive military action against Iran, in Policy Focus 84 from the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. Professor Farideh Farhi focuses on Western press attention to Quds commander Soleimani, and who is directing the Iraq policy for Iran. Cyrus Safdari provides a look at how previous nuclear offers by the EU to Iran have been characterized as "an empty box with a lot of pretty wrapping". Jon Alterman analyzes Iran's success with its strategy in Lebanon.

The Last Resort: Consequences of Preventive Military Action against Iran by Patrick Clawson and Michael Eisenstadt

Who is Making Tehran's Iraq Policy? by Farideh Farhi

The EU-3 nuclear "incentive" offer to Iran by Cyrus Safdari

Iran's Strategy in the Levant by Jon Alterman

News from Iran

The growing tensions between the US and Iran and the regional security issues dominated the coverage in the Iranian media. The influential former president Hashemi Rafsanjani warned the nation that “exceptional conditions” exists for the country, with the US, the UK and the Arab states of the Persian Gulf uniting against Iran. The influential conservative daily Keyhan characterized US-Iran talks as “fruitless” and the commander of the revolutionary guards called upon the Moslems to increase their vigilance against the US. The Iranian foreign minister denounced US arms sales to Saudi Arabia and other Gulf states as “mercenary in nature.” On the nuclear front, President Ahmadinejad said that accepting Iran’s uranium enrichment program is the only way to resolve the nuclear standoff with Iran.

US-Iran Relations

· Iran’s influential former president Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani warned the nation that “exceptional conditions” exists for the country; Rafsanjani said that the common stance adopted by the US president and the British prime minister against Iran during their recent meeting and the visits by the US state and defense secretaries to the region to “strengthen the regional countries against Iran” are manifestations of these “exceptional conditions” in the country; Rafsanjani added that during his presidency friendly relationships with the Arab state of the Persian Gulf were established and they were not uniting against Iran.
· Iran’s foreign minister Manouchehr Mottaki said US has too many problems in Iraq to be able to attack Iran; Mottaki said 170,000 US soldiers in Iraq have been unable to guarantee neither their own safety nor the security of Iraq; Mottaki dismissed any future UN sanction against Iran and said they would not change Iran’s mind to continue its nuclear program.
· Iran’s secretary of supreme national security council Ali Larijani said Iran is in no need for US security guarantees; Larijani said Iran will exercise its rights, including its nuclear rights, regardless if US likes it or not; he added the US does not want Iranians to have the nuclear technology; Larijani chided the US for making a strategic mistake on stopping Iran’s nuclear program because Iran has already acquired the nuclear technology.
· The influential conservative daily Keyhan called the recent negotiations between Iran and US on Iraqi security as “fruitless”; the editorial on 25 July characterized the US as “obstructionist” and “irresponsible”; sensible talks do not get through to the occupiers of Iraq, the editorial concluded.

Iran Nuclear Program

· Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said accepting Iran’s legal rights to enrich uranium is the only solution to the nuclear standoff; They [the West] should come and say this is your right, Ahmadinejad added; he said that security council resolutions against Iran over its nuclear program are illegal; he said the court of public opinion in the world is in favor of Iran and the public opinion has the final say on the world stage today.
· Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani said that enriching uranium is like “breathing” for Iran; Larijani said Iran will not halt the spinning centrifuges at Natanz enrichment plant.
· Iran’s foreign minister Manouchehr Mottaki said new sanctions against Iran would mean “confrontation” with Iran; Mottaki said that Iran would be tempted to do “illegal” things if a new round of sanctions is imposed on the country;
· The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors visited heavy-water reactor under construction at Arak; the inspection took place on 30 July and lasted five hours.
· Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini said Iran has no debts to Russia for the construction of Bushehr nuclear reactor; he rejected Russian claims that Iran has failed to fulfill its financial commitments on Bushehr project; Hosseini added that it would be in the interest of Russia not to waste time and to speed up the plant completion.

Domestic Storylines

· Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said Iran is in the process of building satellites; he said Iran must have its own satellite in the orbit; “We have to build it. We are doing it right now,” Ahmadinejad said.
· President Ahmadinejad said that fuel consumption in the country was much more than the global average and rationing gasoline was a necessity; he said that gasoline rationing was favored by Majlis (the parliament) and the government decided to implement it; he said the rationing program has resulted in a drop in gasoline consumption of 23 million liter (6 million gallon) per day; the program limits the gasoline consumption to slightly less than a gallon per car per day.
· President Ahmadinejad said he has not yet thought about running for re-election; responding to a reporter’s question on the unpopularity of the government’s gasoline rationing program and the risks to his re-election chances, Ahmadinejad said what he says and what he does is not meant to win votes.
· Iranian judiciary spokesman Ali Reza Jamshidi said two Iranian Kurdish journalists have been sentenced to death for being "enemies of God"; Adnan Hassanpour and Abdolvahed "Hiva" Botimar were sentenced to death on July 16 by a revolutionary court in Marivan, in Iran's northeastern Kordestan province.

Regional Storylines

· Iranian foreign minister Manouchehr Mottaki denounced US arms sales to Saudi Arabia and other Arab states of the Persian Gulf as “mercenary” in nature; Mottaki said that the sales is to help US defense contractors from going bankrupt; Mottaki said “the White House politicians are major stakeholders in big arms companies trying to abuse their remaining months in office to whip up a delusional atmosphere, bring big profits to those arms companies and present the outcome as a move to enhance regional stability and security”; Iranian Defense Minister Brigadier General Mohammad Mustafa Najar also accused the US of seeking to “spark an arms race in a bid to keep their giant weapon production companies away from the danger of bankruptcy.”
· The Commander of Islamic Revolution Guards Corp. (IRGC) Major General Yahya Rahim Safavi said Muslims should increase their vigilance against the US; Gen. Safavi said Iraq is becoming another Vietnam for the US.
· Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini said if the US abides by the outcome of US-Iran talks on Iraq and fulfills its commitments, it must help bolster the Maleki government; Hosseini expressed concerned over recent development to weaken the Iraqi government and pledged Iran’s full support for Maleki.
· Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini denied published reports that Iran is promoting violence in Basra; UK Consul in Basra, Richard Jones had accused Iran of promoting violence to hinder UK plan to hand in the city’s security to the Iraqis.
· Iranian speaker of parliament, Gholam Haddad Adel, said the victory of Hezbollah over Israel belongs to the entire Moslem world; Adel wished Hezbollah “greater victories in future fight against Zionism.”
· Iran’s influential conservative daily Keyhan, commenting on the recent elections results in Turkey, wrote that Iran’s own Islamic revolution inspired the wave of Islamism in Turkey and in the entire region; Keyhan added that the “green revolution” in the Middle East is superseding the Western-inspired velvet revolutions that took place elsewhere; the reformist daily Aftab Yazd commenting on the same election results criticized Keyhan and the government for not understanding that the victory by Islamic Justice and Development Party (AKP) does not represent victory of Islamism, Aftab Yazd wrote that AKP is committed to the country’s “general secular framework” and although their leaders are personally practicing Moslems but they have accepted the secular nature of the Turkish state.

On the Winds of War - Ahmadinejad’s Journey to Damascus

Ahmadinejad and Asad in Damascus. 19 July 2007. MEHR News

On 19 July, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad arrived in Damascus to meet his Syrian counterpart, Bashar Al Asad. Ahmadinejad had come to the Syrian capital 48 hours after Asad had taken the oath of office at the start of his second term as the country’s president. As customary, Ahmadinejad had brought a gift for the re-elected president. What the gift was has since become a source of speculation, denial and a call to arms.

The London-based Pan Arab daily Asharq Al Awsat, quoting an identified source close to Ahmadinejad, reported that in his meeting with Bashar, the Iranian president offered a grant of one billion dollars to Syria in return for Syria’s pledge not to start any peace talks with Israel (Asharq Al Awsat, 21 July).

Iran’s foreign ministry spokesman denied that Ahmadinejad had pledged one billion dollars in aid to Syria for purchasing weapons from Russia and North Korea (IRNA, 22 July).

And the Israelis were quick to react. Israel’s minister of strategic threats Avigdor Liebeman urged prime minister Ehud Olmert and the chairman of the opposition Binyamin Netanyahu to form a national unity government in light of the strategic threat posed by the tightening ties between Syria and Iran (Haaretz, 21 July). Yitzhaq Ben Yisra'el, a senior Knesset member from the ruling Kadima party, also urged Olmert and Netanyahu to form a “national emergency government” to deal with Iran (Ynetnews, 21 July).

Immediately after his meeting with Bashar Asad, Ahmadinejad met with Hizbollah leader Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah and Hamas politburo chief Khaled Mishaal (IRNA, 19 July).

The speculations raised by Asharq Al Awsat, denials by Iran and a call to arms by influential Israelis, all in a span of a single weekend, show the tense atmosphere surrounding the alliance formed by Iran, Syria, Hamas and Hizbollah against Israel.

Iran’s strategy is seemingly simple: lead a coalition with Syria, Hamas and Hizbollah as members, drive the US out of the Middle East, and wipe Israel off the map. Syria’s buying into the strategy is a bit more perplexing. Bashar must feel abandoned by the Arabs and shunned by the US and the Europeans. Reliance on the Islamic Republic seems to be his only hope to regain the Golan. Hamas, now governing a land on the border of Israel, needs Iran for survival. Hizbollah, which was formed with the help of Iran’s revolutionary guards, needs Iran not only to confront Israel, but also to face an intractable domestic Lebanese front.

Iran’s strategy, however, seems to have big holes in it. To begin with, the Islamic Republic is facing one of the toughest years of its existence when it comes to matters of economy and public discontent. The world’s second biggest oil producer had to ration gasoline with a draconian measure of less than a gallon per car per day. In a public opinion poll conducted last June, 75% of the people felt they were not benefiting from the surging oil revenues (Please see 18 July entry in this blog: The Views of Iranians). One billion dollar grant to Syria will not go well at home, hence the quick denial by the government. Iran is also facing a financial crisis as a result of the growing sanctions against its banking and financial institutions. A promise of one billion dollar in cash to Syria is easier said than done.

Syria, Hamas and Hizbollah might not be all that powerful allies either. Syria, isolated in the Arab world, is not ready for a war with Israel and might actually fear an Israeli attack. The alliance with Iran could well be a defensive strategy for Damascus. Hamas has its hands full holding on to Gaza in the face of a world increasingly united against its rule. Hizbollah is not ruling Lebanon, as they expected only a year ago. The Lebanese Army is coming out of a major fight with Al Qaeda stronger in morale despite its casualties and the Sionora government is showing a renewed sense of purpose. It’s Nasrallah’s life that has become more complicated. The alliance of Iran, Syria, Hamas and Hizbollah looks much stronger on paper.

Ahmadinejad’s journey to Damascus and the summit of the four leaders should be taken very seriously. This alliance, however weak internally, needs to create tension to justify its members’ hold on their people. But heightening tension in an already tense region can be a recipe for war. What Iran needs to fear most is that creating winds of war can produce its own nightmare: a pre-emptive attack on its military and nuclear facilities by the Israelis or the Americans or both.