European officials in Tehran, eager for post-sanctions business opportunities

 

French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius with Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif

According to the New York Times, dated 29JUL15:

The French foreign minister arrived in Tehran on Wednesday, the latest in a string of visits by officials from European countries seeking closer economic and political ties with Iran after the nuclear agreement this month.

[…]

The visit by Mr. Fabius comes as French companies such as Airbus and the carmakers Peugeot Citroën and Renault have been seeking to renew ties with local producers that were cut because of the sanctions.

[…]

Mr. Fabius’s trip follows a visit to Tehran on Tuesday by Federica Mogherini, the European Union’s foreign policy chief. Last week, the German vice chancellor, Sigmar Gabriel, who is also his country’s economy minister, arrived with a business delegation. Mr. Fabius will also have several trade-related meetings.

Meanwhile in Washington DC during congressional hearing on JCPOA, much of the talk continued to be focused on potential war with Iran, effectively surrendering considerable post-sanctions business opportunities to the Europeans and Asians. As Tim Maverick at the Wall Street Daily laments in a recent piece subtitled "No lunch for us":

Everyone knows that sanctions on Iran will be lifted eventually.

That’s why European and Asian companies are already in discussions with Iranian officials and businessmen to establish new relationships or to reignite old ones.

But American corporations are being held back by strict, decades-old restrictions on doing business with Iran. Foreign subsidiaries of U.S. companies may be allowed to invest in Iran. But, understandably, executives are wary of running afoul of the politicians.

So, while our top companies stand on the sidelines, our competitors will eat our lunch in Iran.

And it will be quite a tasty lunch, too. China is now Iran’s largest trading partner. And German exports to Iran are expected to quickly grow four-fold from 2.4 billion euros last year to 10 billion euros. Plus, Tehran already said that it will need in excess of $200 billion in investments for its oil and gas industry.

There’s a lot more than energy at play here, too. Iran is also an industrial powerhouse in waiting.

The country is the world’s biggest exporter of cement, and ranks in the world’s top 15 for both steel production and auto production. Iran is also recognized in the global medical community for its work in stem cell research and nanotechnology.

In other words, Iran isn’t a run-of-the-mill emerging market.

The country has little debt, unlike other emerging markets, and has a stock market with a market capitalization of about $110 billion. The Iranian market soared last year in anticipation of a deal, rising a record 130%!

Key Questions Remain about Iran’s Nuclear Program - France

France said on Thursday that important issues still needed to be resolved regarding Iran’s nuclear program before the 24 November deadline.

“I hope we will be able to achieve an agreement but there are still key questions to resolve,” French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius said. “I can’t make any prediction at this time. I think it will only be on the day of the 24th that we will be able to make an assessment.” (Reuters, 13 November)

Iran, World Powers ‘Hit a Wall’ on Nuclear Talks – French FM

French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius has told The Los Angeles Times that negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program have “hit a wall.” After four months of talks, the negotiators have only struck agreement on minor “technical points,” Fabius added.

An agreement on the scope of Iran’s future enrichment program has become a major issue of contention. Iran has installed some 19,000 centrifuges to enrich uranium, with some 10,000 in full operation. It wants to increase this number to at least 50,000, arguing that it needs the high numbers to produce enough fuel for Bushehr nuclear power reactor, for which the Russians have already provided the fuel for the next 10 years and are committed to continue doing so

The West wants to keep the number of centrifuges to only few thousands to prevent a rapid breakout capability by Iran. Fabius told the LA Times that the numbers should be “some hundreds” and not “hundreds of thousands,” as he says the Iranians want. That’s a wide gap to overcome before the 20 July expiration of the interim agreement, JPOA.

UPDATE: Iran’s deputy foreign minister and senior nuclear negotiator Abbas Araqchi told reporters today after holding talks with his French counterpart in Geneva that their talks were “helpful” and the two sides exchanged their views on the nuclear issues in a “positive atmosphere.” (IRNA)

No Deal Today - Yet ‘A Lot of Concrete Progress’

Iran and world powers were unable to seal a deal today, but set 20 November as the date of their next meeting in Geneva to work on concluding an agreement.

EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton held a post-meeting press conference with Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif.

“A lot of concrete progress has been achieved but some issues remain,” Ashton said, adding: “Our objective is to reach a conclusion and that’s what we’ll come back (to Geneva on 20 November) to try to do.” (AFP, 10 November)

Reports indicate that the French concerns over an apparent Iranian unwillingness to delay the completion of its plutonium-producing IR-40 reactor in Arak was one of the stumbling blocks that prevented an agreement today.

“The meetings in Geneva have made it possible to move forward, but we have not yet managed to conclude (a deal), because there are still some questions remaining to be dealt with,” said French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius.

Secretary of State John Kerry was optimistic: “We made a lot of progress,” but need to ‘dot the I’s and cross the t’s’ to reach an agreement. (@StateDept/Twitter)

Photo credit: EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton with Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif at a post-meeting press conference. Geneva, 10 September 2013. (AFP)