The House Votes to Reject Nuclear Deal

The U.S. House of Representatives overwhelmingly voted to disapprove the nuclear accord with Iran. The vote was 269-126. The house action, however, will not stop the deal. Yesterday, the Senate voted 58-42, short of 60 votes needed to consider the accord. Both houses of Congress had until 17 September to disapprove the deal.

The agreement goes into effect on Thursday on the U.S. side. The Iranian approval process by Majlis, the parliament, and the country’s Supreme National Security Council is still pending. Those bodies are expected to follow Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei’s final decision to approve or disapprove the accord.

European officials in Tehran, eager for post-sanctions business opportunities

 

French Foreign Minister Laurent Fabius with Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif

According to the New York Times, dated 29JUL15:

The French foreign minister arrived in Tehran on Wednesday, the latest in a string of visits by officials from European countries seeking closer economic and political ties with Iran after the nuclear agreement this month.

[…]

The visit by Mr. Fabius comes as French companies such as Airbus and the carmakers Peugeot Citroën and Renault have been seeking to renew ties with local producers that were cut because of the sanctions.

[…]

Mr. Fabius’s trip follows a visit to Tehran on Tuesday by Federica Mogherini, the European Union’s foreign policy chief. Last week, the German vice chancellor, Sigmar Gabriel, who is also his country’s economy minister, arrived with a business delegation. Mr. Fabius will also have several trade-related meetings.

Meanwhile in Washington DC during congressional hearing on JCPOA, much of the talk continued to be focused on potential war with Iran, effectively surrendering considerable post-sanctions business opportunities to the Europeans and Asians. As Tim Maverick at the Wall Street Daily laments in a recent piece subtitled "No lunch for us":

Everyone knows that sanctions on Iran will be lifted eventually.

That’s why European and Asian companies are already in discussions with Iranian officials and businessmen to establish new relationships or to reignite old ones.

But American corporations are being held back by strict, decades-old restrictions on doing business with Iran. Foreign subsidiaries of U.S. companies may be allowed to invest in Iran. But, understandably, executives are wary of running afoul of the politicians.

So, while our top companies stand on the sidelines, our competitors will eat our lunch in Iran.

And it will be quite a tasty lunch, too. China is now Iran’s largest trading partner. And German exports to Iran are expected to quickly grow four-fold from 2.4 billion euros last year to 10 billion euros. Plus, Tehran already said that it will need in excess of $200 billion in investments for its oil and gas industry.

There’s a lot more than energy at play here, too. Iran is also an industrial powerhouse in waiting.

The country is the world’s biggest exporter of cement, and ranks in the world’s top 15 for both steel production and auto production. Iran is also recognized in the global medical community for its work in stem cell research and nanotechnology.

In other words, Iran isn’t a run-of-the-mill emerging market.

The country has little debt, unlike other emerging markets, and has a stock market with a market capitalization of about $110 billion. The Iranian market soared last year in anticipation of a deal, rising a record 130%!

Will JCPOA be approved by U.S., Iran legislative branches of government?

Sample of recent quotes made by members of U.S. and Iran legislative branches of government in reference to JCPOA written agreement, with brief commentary provided at bottom of post:

"Members of Congress will ask much tougher questions... when we meet with the president's team, and because a bad deal threatens the security of the American people, we're going to do everything possible to stop it," --U.S. Congressman John Boehner, House Majority Leader [source: Haaretz]

"In failing to secure the disclosure of these secret [IAEA] side deals, the Obama administration is asking Congress and the American people to trust [Iran], but not verify. What we cannot do is trust the terror-sponsoring, anti-American, outlaw regime that governs Iran and that has been deceiving the world on its nuclear weapons work for years."  --U.S. Senator Tom Cotton

"There is a... choice. There are tougher sanctions that will bring Iran to the table for a better deal and a good deal. It's simply unacceptable for the President to be misrepresenting what the options are to Congress and the American people." --U.S. Senator John Cornyn [source: CNN]

"We must ignore the coming public relations campaign that will trumpet this deal as a victory for diplomacy and the false premise that the deal is a choice between peace and war, The more I read [of the agreement], the more my concern grows." U.S. Senator Dan Coats [source: CNN]

"Given a choice between the invasion of Iran or working in a diplomatic fashion toward a negotiation so that we can lessen this threat to the world, I think President Obama made the right choice." --U.S. Senator Dick Durbin [source: CNN]

"Parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Commission as well as a 15-strong special committee  will review the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action in full detail" -- Iranian Member of Parliament Nozar Shafiee, Member of Majlis National Security and Foreign Policy Commission [source: Tasnim News Agency]

"[The nuclear agreement is] a national achievement [enabling the] economy, culture, defense and science sectors to prosper." Iranian Member of Parliament Ali Larijani, Speaker of Parliament [source: IRIB News]

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COMMENTARY: Interesting that while JCPOA is not a formal treaty, nevertheless both countries' have activated respective legislative branches of government in a process of ratification.

The American ratification process at U.S. Congress appears focused on Iran being able to achieve nuclear weaponization in spite of the agreement, as well as a geopolitical shift in Iran's favor deemed possible by JCPOA; or alternatively, presented as a choice of peace through diplomacy, or war. More hardline elements of Congress seek a form of Iranian surrender through increased economic coercion efforts, regardless of the Iran nuclear issue being successfully negotiated and approved by Europe, Russia and China.

Meanwhile for Iran's Parliament, nuclear weaponization as a forfeited pursuit of even option is not part of the debate. Rather, concerns appear to focus on identifying factors related to Iranian national security and  conventional military industrial complex that might possibly be rendered compromised by JCPOA. Supporters of the agreement identify recognition of the country's civilian nuclear power industry as a legitimate endeavor, which they say was always the goal of negotiations going as far back as 2003 (and which was not accepted by the U.S. during failed negotiations in 2009 and 2010), as well as expected economic advantages brought on by the cessation of sanctions.

White House-Congress Divide on Iran Sanctions Widens – LA Times

As Iran prepares to inaugurate its moderate president, the Obama administration and Congress are sharply divided on how tough an approach to take on the country's nuclear program, the LA Times reported today.

“Obama administration eases some sanctions in the wake of Hassan Rouhani's election. (But) some lawmakers want even more (sanctions), fearing time is short to block a nuclear bomb.” (LA Times, 27 July)

The Obama administration, which hopes to meet incoming President Hassan Rouhani's team in September on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York, this week announced an easing of sanctions on medical supplies, farm products and humanitarian aid.

Meanwhile, the House appears close to passing a tough new sanctions measure aimed at further cutting Iran’s oil exports.


Secretary of State John Kerry and other officials are urging Congress to hold off on new sanctions before expected nuclear talks, warning of the risk of alienating new leaders who might be willing to give diplomacy a chance, the LA Times said.

"You could have a train wreck if a draconian new bill is passed during negotiations," said Cliff Kupchan, an Iran specialist at the Eurasia Group and a former State Department official.

Senior members of Obama's nuclear team from his first term are among those who have called on the administration to take a new approach.

File photo: The White House (whitehouse.gov)