Iran, World Powers Agree on Framework for Nuclear Talks

Identifying Issues and Timetable

Laura Rozen of Al-Monitor reports from Vienna that Iran and six world powers have agreed “on an agenda and a timetable of meetings for how to proceed in negotiating a comprehensive Iran nuclear accord.” (Backchannel, Al-Monitor, 19 February)

The framework is a breakthrough that identifies the issues that will need to be addressed and a timetable of meetings by end July, the deadline of the current JPOA.

An Iranian negotiator told Al-Monitor late Wednesday evening that a framework agreement has been reached.

IRNA, citing Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, reported late Wednesday that a framework agreement had been reached, and a next round of talks would be held in Vienna in mid to late March.

“We have [a] timetable of meetings and identification of issues,” a Western official at the talks, speaking not for attribution, told Al-Monitor. (Al-Monitor, 19 February)

File photo: Vienna Talks; 18 February 2014. (Dieter Nagl/AFP/Getty Images/New York Times)

Bombs Kill 4 Near Iranian Cultural Center in Beirut

Two suicide bombers blew up their cars Wednesday trying to hit an Iranian cultural center in the dominantly-Shia Bir Abed district in southern Beirut, killing at least four people and wounding more than a hundred, Abdullah Azzam Brigades claimed responsibility. (AP, 19 February)

The group, an affiliate of Al-Qaeda, said on its Twitter account that the “invasion of the Iranian cultural center’ was in “retaliation for Iran's party fighting along the criminal regime in Syria,” probably referring to Lebanese Hezbollah.

“We will continue to target Iran and its party in Lebanon through their security, political and military offices until Hezbollah fighters withdraw from Syria and scores of Islamic detainees are released from Lebanese jails,” Abdullah Azzam Brigades group said in its statement. (AP, 19 February)

Photo credit: the scene of suicide bombing near Iranian cultural center in Beirut, 19 February 2014. (csmonitor)

Bakhtiari Protests in Iran

There have been a number of protests by Bakhtiaris recently in Isfahan and Ahvaz, among other cities, who say they have been insulted by a broadcast aired by IRIB, the state broadcasting system. They are demanding the removal of the director of IRIB. The Bakhtiari is one of the prominent tribes in Iran.

A loyal reader of this blog has shared with us the photo, seen above, and links to YouTube videos on the subject.

http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=yi_eQ0DHd9Y&desktop_uri=%2Fwatch%3Fv%3Dyi_eQ0DHd9Y

http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=0yQTspPRwt4&desktop_uri=%2Fwatch%3Fv%3D0yQTspPRwt4

http://m.youtube.com/watch?v=xeHRPkNBTc8

Negotiations for Comprehensive Agreement on Iran Nuclear Program

Iran and the P5+1 reached an interim agreement in Geneva on 24 November, the Joint Plan of Action (JPOA), which outlines the goal of the negotiations and the elements of the final step of a comprehensive solution beyond the initial measures. This blog has on regular basis covered the Iranian nuclear program and the on-going negotiations. But based on comments we received on our earlier post today, there seems to be confusion on the issues that need to be addressed in the negotiations to reach the final agreement. Hence, below are the relevant sections of JPOA that should help clarify the issues.

• The goal of these negotiations is to reach a mutually-agreed long-term comprehensive solution.

• This comprehensive solution would involve a mutually defined enrichment program with practical limits and transparency measures to ensure the peaceful nature of the program.

• There would be additional steps in between the initial measures and the final steps, including among other things, addressing the UN Security Council resolutions, with a view toward bringing to a satisfactory conclusion the UN Security Council’s consideration of this matter.

The JPOA also defines specific issues to be resolved:

• A mutually defined enrichment program with mutually agreed parameters consistent with practical needs, with agreed limits on scope and level of enrichment activities, capacity, where it is carried out, and stocks of enriched uranium, for a period to be agreed upon.

• Fully resolve concerns related to the reactor at Arak, designated by the IAEA as the IR-40. No reprocessing or construction of a facility capable of reprocessing.

• Fully implement the agreed transparency measures and enhanced monitoring. Ratify and implement the Additional Protocol, consistent with the respective roles of the President and the Majlis (Iranian parliament). 

Based on the agreement between Iran and the P5+1, the scope and level of enrichment activities, the Arak reactor, the Additional Protocol, and satisfaction of UN Security Council resolutions are among the topics of negotiations.

The four UNSC resolutions include specific prohibition on “any activity related to ballistic missiles capable of delivering nuclear weapons, including launches using ballistic missile technology, and that states shall take all necessary measures to prevent the transfer of technology or technical assistance to Iran related to such activities.” (Paragraph 9 of UN Security Council Resolution 1929.)

Please note these resolutions have been approved by P5, and Iran and P5+1 have agreed to bring them to a satisfactory conclusion. That includes discussions of “ballistic missiles capable of delivering nuclear weapons.”

No one said the negotiations are to be easy. In fact, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei has expressed his opinion that the talks “will go nowhere.” Khamenei’s analysis could be correct, but the two sides have no choice but to do their utmost to strike a final deal. The interim agreement's deadline of 24 July might also need to be extended for another six months to address all these difficult issues.

  

On first day of Vienna talks, U.S. presses Iran on ballistic missiles

 

Above: IRGC-ASF parades thirty TEL-mounted MRBMs, September 2013

According to the Wall Street Journal:

Talks on a permanent Iran nuclear accord opened Tuesday with the U.S. pressing Tehran to agree the deal should encompass caps on its expanding ballistic missile capabilities.

The dispute is the latest in a growing number of issues that divide Washington and Tehran as the Obama administration seeks to use diplomacy to end the military threat posed by Iran's nuclear program.

The U.S. and its allies view Iran's missiles as part of the country's potential nuclear threat, thus a subject for the talks on a permanent nuclear agreement.

"They have to deal with matters related to their ballistic missile program," said White House spokesman Jay Carney.

But Iran says the missiles are part of its defense establishment and beyond the limits of nuclear talks. In any case, the issue of whether Iran's ballistic missile capabilities will be on the agenda already has exposed a rift between the Americans and Iranians.

Focusing on Iranian defense-related issues on the first day of negotiations in Vienna serves to deflect and throw off balance Iran's stated agenda of demonstrating its nuclear program is peaceful in nature.

This is the sort of thing the SL branch of IRIG, the IRGC and a majority of Iran's parliament have been expecting, in their publicly voiced pessimism that these talks would not succeed.

Like the previous Khatami administration during the early 2000's where Iran made attempts at improving relations with the U.S., Britain and France, engaging in negotiations in 2003 that went nowhere and even going so far as assisting U.S. military endeavors during the lead-up and initial phase of Operation Enduring Freedom in Afghanistan, the current Rouhani administration has gone out on a political limb in again reaching out to the United States with hopes of improved relations.

By focusing on matters of Iran's defense crucial to its doctrine of deterrence from attack, the Obama administration risks missing opportunities the likes of which missed during the Bush administration, and by doing so potentially providing a domestically perceived sense of vindication to political forces inside Iran dismissive or outright resistant to yet another Iranian outreach effort.

Negotiations for Comprehensive Deal on Iran Nuclear Program Begins in Vienna

The negotiation for a comprehensive agreement on Iranian nuclear program began today in Vienna, with Iranian negotiators meeting one-on-one with their U.S. and European counterparts.

Iran’s deputy foreign minister and nuclear negotiator Abbas Araqchi told reporters that the talks had started well and added that for Iran, any dismantling of nuclear program and facilities “is not on the agenda.”

Iran and P5+1 signed an interim agreement in Geneva that would expire on 24 July. The two sides were hoping to strike a final comprehensive deal by the deadline. But considering the difficulties to resolve all the complicated technical and political issues, the interim agreement could potentially be extended until late December.

A final agreement should also resolve all issues embedded in a series of UN Security Council resolutions, including a prohibition against ballistic missiles capable of delivering nuclear weapons.

Representatives of Iran, the United States, China, Russia, Britain, France, Germany and the European Union at talks in Vienna. Tuesday, 18 February. (Dieter Nagl/AFP/Getty Images/New York Times)

On the Eve of Vienna Talks: Guarded Optimism and Utter Pessimism

Al-Monitor’s Laura Rozen reports from Vienna on the eve of the opening round of negotiations to reach a comprehensive nuclear deal with Iran that an unnamed senior U.S. diplomat expected the process to be “complicated, difficult and lengthy,” but it represented “the best chance” the world has had in a decade to resolve concerns about Iran’s nuclear program. (Al-Monitor-Back Channel, 17 February)

Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif had told the country’s official news agency IRNA that was optimistic about the prospects of reaching a final deal with the world powers. (IRNA, 17 February)

Earlier today, however, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei tweeted that he expected that the talks would “lead to nowhere.”

It’s Khamenei’s pronouncement that is worrisome. As the country’s supreme leader, he can stop or eventually kill any compromise worked out by Zarif.

Realities on the ground in Iran support Khamenei’s pessimism. All politics are local, it's been said, and Iran is no exception, facing two crucial elections within a year or so. The elections for the Assembly of Experts are due in mid-2015, and the election for Majlis, the Iranian parliament, in the spring of 2016.

If a comprehensive deal is struck, and the sanctions are lifted, the resulting boom in the Iranian economy will assure the capture of both houses by Rouhani and his supporters. A nightmarish scenario for the ruling hard right! They have already lost the executive, and losing the Assembly of Expert and the Majlis would throw them into the political abyss for a decade or more. They will push for a win-lose, and not a win-win, outcome in the nuclear talks, with Iran on the winning side. Their second best hope, if they don’t succeed and they don't expect to, is no deal at all. 

The IRGC is also fearful of losing their control of over 80% of the Iranian economy if sanctions are lifted and the private enterprise can compete with them. IRGC’s abilities to control the ports for import of illegal goods and using illegal money transfer networks to pay for business transactions will lose their effects if Iran fully re-enters the global marketplace. 

So a word of caution: Khamenei accepted the 24 November interim Geneva agreement, but has been under tremendous pressure from the right to stop the final comprehensive agreement. We might look at a protracted negotiations bugged down on Arak, new enrichment centrifuges and other similar issues.

But a word of hope: the Iranian public by far wants to see the lifting of all sanctions, than can only achieved through a nuclear deal. That pressure might force the hard right to back off and let a deal to go through.

Padideh 'Legend City' tourist resort at Kish, under construction

Another ambitious Padideh construction project taking shape: the "Legend City" tourist resort at Kish Island

Multiple boom concrete pumps employed at Padideh "Legend City" construction site at Kish

Lineup of heavy construction vehicles at Padideh "Legend City" construction site

Deployment of heavy construction vehicles to Padideh "Legend City" construction site. Note at left the ancient fortress themed Kish Restaurant, another Padideh project.

Rendering of completed Padideh "Legend City" which includes five towers with heights of 250 meters

Rendering of luxury rooftop details for tower of completed Padideh "Legend City"

Photos: padide.com

Iran Security Forces May be Sent Into Pakistan to Free Border Guards

Baluch Militant Group Taking Five Guards Hostage

Iran said today it would send its security forces into Pakistan to free kidnapped border guards if Islamabad did not take measures to secure their release.

“If Pakistan doesn't take the needed steps to fight against the terrorist groups, we will send our forces into Pakistani soil. We will not wait for this country,” said Iranian Interior Minister Abdolreza Rahmani-Fazli. (Mehr News Agency/Reuters, 17 February)

Iranian Baluch militant group Jaish ul-Adl (“Army of Justice”), the apparent successor to Jundallah, on Sunday 9 February took responsibility for kidnapping five Iranian border guards by posting group photos and videos of them on their Twitter account. The group operates on both sides of Iran-Pakistan border in Greater Baluchistan area.

Photo credit: Iranian border guards kidnapped by Jaish ul-Adl, presumably in Pakistani side of Baluchistan. (pic.twitter.com/DBAeR59YVY)

‘This Will Lead Nowhere’ – Khamenei on Nuclear Talks

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei tweeted today that the Iranian Foreign Ministry will continue its work (said in the context of nuclear negotiations with the world powers) and Iran will honor commitments it has made so far (referring to 24 November interim agreement). But the ayatollah added his definite and negative take on the talks: “I say this now, this will lead nowhere.”

“The work that the Foreign Ministry has begun will continue; Iran will not break its commitment made so far. But I say this now, this will lead nowhere,” said the tweet on Khamenei’s official Twitter account. (Khamenei_irFa, 17 February)

Image credit: Capture of Khamenei’s Twitter page. (Twitter, 17 February)