Mixed Signals by Iran Ahead of Almaty Talks

Days before the start of Almaty Talk, Iran appears to be sending mixed signals on its nuclear program, speeding up production of enriched uranium while also converting part of its 20-percent enriched uranium into metal fuel plates for use in a civilian research reactor, rendering the material all but useless for weapons purposes, the Washington Post reported today.

On production side, Iran has begun installing the new IR2m centrifuges at Natanz enrichment facility. The new machines work approximately 4 times faster than the older IR1 machines, doubling the capacity to produce enriched uranium at Natanz.

The installation of IR2m centrifuges prompted Israel to issue a warning that Iran is “closer than ever” to the ability to build a nuclear bomb. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office said in a statement released today that the Iranian move “proves Iran is continuing to rapidly advance to the red line that the prime minister drew at his speech in the United Nations… Iran is closer than ever today to obtaining enriched material for a nuclear bomb.” (AFP, 21 February)

But meanwhile, IAEA inspectors who visited Iran last month reported that Iran is deliberately capping its 20-percent enriched uranium stockpile by converting some of the enriched uranium into metal fuel plates. Iran has so far kept its stockpile of this form of uranium below 550 pounds, the amount that would be needed in theory to make a single nuclear bomb.

In another possible sign of deliberate slowing, IAEA inspectors confirmed that Iran still has not begun operating hundreds of centrifuges installed recently at its Fordo uranium enrichment plant, the Washington Post reported.

On Tuesday, Iranian officials are scheduled to begin negotiations in Almaty with the six world powers on the country’s nuclear program. France said today that P5+1 diplomats were preparing a “substantial” new offer to Iran.

“We want a genuine exchange that will lead to concrete results,” said a French Foreign Ministry spokesman in Paris. (AFP, 21 February)

File photo: Uranium enriching centrifuges

Iran Displays New IR2M Centrifuges for Visiting IAEA Team

IAEA Fails to Reach Agreement with Iran on Parchin

Iran has shown the visiting IAEA officials high-tech equipment positioned at its main uranium enrichment site at Natanz meant to vastly accelerate output of enriched uranium, Associated Press reported on Thursday.

Iran is reported ready to install 3,000 of new generation IR2M centrifuges at Natanz. The new machines are 3-6 times faster than the older IR1 centrifuges and are expected to be installed within 6-9 months. When all 3,000 new machines are installed, the production capacity at Natanz uranium enrichment will be doubled.

IAEA team in its latest visit to Tehran again failed to reach an agreement with the Iranian officials to restart an investigation into suspicions that Iran might have worked on nuclear weapons at Parchin military site. The team visited Tehran on Wednesday.

Herman Naeckerts, IAEA deputy director who headed the agency’s team that visited Tehran, told reporters that “remaining differences” scuttled attempts to finalize an agreement on how such an investigation should be conducted.

Photo credit: Herman Nackaerts, center, IAEA Deputy Director, arrives from Iran at Vienna's Schwechat airport. 14 February 2013. (Associated Press/Ronald Zak)

Iran Attempted Purchase of Magnate Signals Move to Expand Nuclear Capacity – Post

Iran Also Converts 20-Percent Uranium into Reactor Metal – Easing Concerns over Nuclear Weapon Program

The Washington Post reports that Iran recently sought to acquire tens of thousands of highly specialized magnets used in centrifuge machines. The experts and diplomats told the Post that the attempted purchase was “a sign that Iran may be planning a major expansion of its nuclear program that could shorten the path to an atomic weapons capability.” (The Washington Post, 14 February)

The report says Iranian agents attempted to buy 100,000 of the ring-shaped magnets — which are banned from export to Iran under U.N. resolutions — from China about a year ago. It is unclear whether the attempt succeeded. This particular attempt to purchase banned items from foreign vendors is significant, the Post says, because of it’s the purchase order’s specificity and sheer size, enough magnets in theory to outfit 50,000 new centrifuges. Iran is believed to have some 14,000 centrifuges now.

The Washington Post report coincides with Iran’s announcement this week that it will install new generation of centrifuges at Natanz uranium enrichment unit. The new IR2M will be 3-6 times faster that the existing IR1 machines. Their exact efficiency of the new model depends on a number of factors including the quality of the raw material. The installation of the IR2M centrifuges could double the current capacity at Natanz.

“They are positioning themselves to make a lot of nuclear progress quickly,” a European diplomat was quoted by the Washington Post as saying. “Each step forward makes the situation potentially more dangerous.”

Olli Heinonen who led the IAEA nuclear inspections inside Iran before his retirement in 2010, has told the Post that the type of magnet sought by Iran was highly specific to the IR-1 centrifuge.

“The numbers in the order make sense, because Iran originally told us it wanted to build more than 50,000 of the IR-1s,” Heinonen said. “The failure rate on these machines is 10 percent a year, so you need a surplus.” (The Washington Post, 14 February)

Meanwhile, Iran has announced, and the IAEA inspectors have confirmed, that it has converted parts of its 20-percent enriched uranium stockpile into a metal used in reactors that is not used in production of nuclear weapons.

The Post says a new IAEA report would document Iran’s seemingly contradictory moves, portraying the country as carefully avoiding behavior indicating work on nuclear weapons, and at the same time quietly preparing to increase production at its two uranium-enrichment plants.