Arak Reactor, IR-2 Centrifuges Among Iran’s Demands at Nuclear Talks

Iran will not give up the future use of advanced IR-2M centrifuges and its heavy water Arak reactor as part of any long-term comprehensive agreement with the world powers, said Hamid Baeedinejad, a member of Iran’s nuclear negotiating team. (IRNA, 16 February)

Under the 24 November Geneva agreement, in force for six months, Iran has stopped construction activities to complete its Arak reactor and has agreed not to replace the older IR-1 centrifuges with the advanced machines.

If the completion and operationalization of Arak and the future use of the new centrifuges are Iran’s non-negotiable demands, as suggested by Baeedinejad, they could become obstacles to strike a final and comprehensive deal with the world powers at talks that will begin later this week in Vienna. It is also not clear why Iran accepted those limits in the interim Geneva agreement, if it does not accept them in any final deal.

File photo: Arak heavy-water nuclear reactor. (IRNA)

Iran Installs 1,000 IR-2m Centrifuges

Banned by Geneva Agreement – But Not Operationalized

Director of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI) Ali Akbar Salehi said today that Iran has installed 1,000 IR-2m centrifuges at its uranium enrichment facilities, but has not operationalized them. The November 24 Geneva agreement prohibits the introduction of new-generation centrifuges by Iran. 

“We have put in 1,000 centrifuges of the second generation (IR-2m), but we have not injected the UF6 gas into them given the ongoing nuclear talks,” Salehi said. (Press TV, 1 January)

“There is nothing impossible for Iran in producing new-generation centrifuges and we have fully mastered the job,” Salehi added.

File photo: A new IR-2m centrifuge being inspected by then-President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. 2012. (IRNA)

Iran Nuclear Program: Revealing Pictures

Natanz: Ahmadinejad Viewing A Disassembled

IR-2 Centrifuge

(Photo: www.President.ir)

During President Ahmadinejad’s visit to Natanz Uranium Enrichment Facility on 8 April, Iran released 48 photographs showing the country’s advancement in nuclear technology and providing the first significant look inside Natanz. New York Times’ William Broad in an article in today’s paper titled “A Tantalizing Look at Iran’s Nuclear Program” reports that the photos provided a wealth of information to Western analysts.

“They’re remarkable,” said Jeffrey G. Lewis, an arms control specialist at the New America Foundation. “We’re learning things.”

“This is intel to die for,” says Andreas Persbo, an analyst in London at the Verification Research, Training and Information Center. Persbo made the comments on the blog, Arms Control Wonk.

The analysts now believe that the Iranians have achieved new levels of technical skill. The case in point is the development of IR-2, a centrifuge that would produce about four times the enrichment.

“That’s a lot,” David Albright, president of the Institute for Science and International Security (ISIS), told The Times.

Of the 48 photographs Iran released, Western analysts gave special scrutiny to one showing Ahmadinejad and his entourage inspecting a disassembled IR-2, its guts arrayed on the table, as the Times put it. Clearly visible are its casing, inner rotor, motor and several other critical parts (pictured above).

ISIS’s Albright said that in one year 1,200 flawlessly running IR-2 centrifuges could produce enough weapon-grade uranium for one nuclear weapon.

Houston G. Wood III, a centrifuge expert at the University of Virginia tells The New York Times that the episode smelled of “hubris.”

“It was amazing to me that they put the pictures out there,” Wood said. “It’s sort of a cocky thing. I would think they had more to gain by keeping their cards close to their chests.”

Iran Speeds Up Nuclear Program

Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad announced that Iran has been installing 3,000 new centrifuges at the country’s uranium enrichment facility in Natanz. There were already 3,000 centrifuges in operation at Natanz. Ahmadinejad made the announcement as he toured the Natanz facility today, proclaimed as the National Nuclear Day.

Ahmadinejad also said that later today he would announce “newer achievements in Iran’s nuclear program.” It is expected that the new development would be the installation at Natanz of 300 advanced IR-2 centrifuges, capable of enriching uranium up to three times faster than the current P-1 type machines.

Iran says it needs the new centrifuges to accelerate the production of nuclear fuel needed to run electricity-generating nuclear reactors. The problem with the argument is the fact that Iran does not have a single nuclear reactor in operation today. The Russians are completing the construction of the country’s first reactor at Bushehr. But the fuel needed for that reactor has already been supplied to Iran by the Russians. The construction and completion of any new nuclear reactor would take years, if not decades. Hence the argument that Iran would need so much enriched uranium today for the reactors to be built in distant future simply does not hold.

With 6,000 P-1 centrifuges installed and the advanced IR-2 machines being added to the inventory, Iran should be able to produce considerable amounts of enriched uranium in the coming months.

Iran can reprocess the enriched uranium at Natanz to produce highly-enriched uranium that can in turn be processed to produce uranium metal, the core of uranium-based nuclear weapons. IAEA has confronted Iran with questions on that very process. The agency has provided Iran with the intelligence showing that it was in possession of technical drawings for reprocessing highly-enriched uranium into uranium metal and of high explosion tests required in a nuclear weaponization program. Iran has so far refused to discuss the details with IAEA, only calling the reports “baseless.”

Today’s announcement of doubling the country’s uranium enrichment capabilities and adding the most advanced centrifuges to the inventory can only increase suspicions that Iran is getting ready to produce nuclear weapons.

Iran Installs New Centrifuges

News wires yesterday widely reported on the installation of the new IR-2 centrifuges at Natanz. Testing of IR-2’s started in early February and if the news of their installations is accurate, the quality tests must have been successful.

IR-2 centrifuges are the homemade version of the advanced P-2 centrifuges whose design Iran had obtained from Pakistani nuclear scientist A.Q. Khan. The P-2 can enrich uranium gas up to three times faster than the P-1, the present workhorse of Iran’s enrichment program (there are 3,000 P-1 centrifuges currently in operation at Natanz).

Until now, Iran had difficulty to import special steel rotors needed to build the P-2’s. It appears that Iran has successfully replaced the steel rotors with rotor tubes made of carbon fiber. The resulting machine is now called IR-2.

The installation of IR-2 centrifuges at Natanz indicates that Iran is entering an advanced stage of nuclear development. The new machines will be on display on 8 April, a date Iran has marked as National Nuclear Technology Day. President Ahmadinejad is expected to announce “significant achievement” in the country’s nuclear program.

News from Iran

The Islamic Republic celebrated the 29th anniversary of the Iranian revolution. President Ahmadinejad vowed not to retreat on nuclear issues and ridiculed UN Security Council resolutions against Iran’s nuclear program. Iran announced start up of its own modified centrifuge, reportedly enriching uranium three times faster than the current models. Iran also announced plans for the launch of two more space rockets before putting a homemade satellite into orbit next summer. The upcoming parliamentary elections were also covered extensively by the local media. The commander of Revolutionary Guards broke with tradition and urged Iranians to support the radical fundamentalists in the elections. Reformists and moderates reacted with anger and concern and a grandson of the founder of the Islamic Republic called on the armed forces to stay clear from politics.

Iran’s Nuclear Program

· Iran started up its own modified centrifuge at Natanz uranium enrichment plant; the new unit, named IR-2, was reported to be up to three times faster than P-1 centrifuge already in operation at Natanz; IR-2 machines were reported to be a homemade version of the advanced P-2 centrifuge; Iran replaced hard-to-manufacture steel rotors needed to build P-2s with rotor tubes made of carbon fiber; development of IR-2 indicated that Iran was at a much higher stage of nuclear development than previously thought.
· “The world should know that the Iranian nation will not retreat one iota from its nuclear rights,” President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said during a rally in Tehran marking the anniversary of the 1979 revolution; Ahmadinejad dismissed UN Security Council sanctions as “bits of paper.”
· France said it regrets Iranian statements on nuclear issue; French Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Pascale Andreani said President Ahmadinejad shows no sign of openness toward a negotiated solution on Iran’s nuclear program.
· Disagreements between IAEA Chief Mohammad ElBaradei and his staff could delay releasing the report on Iran; ElBaradei was reportedly ready to issue a positive report on Iran; there was a concern among IAEA staff that most of big issues are going to be declared as resolved when “they're anything but,” IAEA sources said; some Western powers have said they might not back a third sanctions resolution against Iran if IAEA gives a positive assessment of Iran’s nuclear program.
· Israel’s Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said Iran is still moving forward on nuclear weapon; “Why does Iran need enriched uranium at a time when they are supplied by Russians the nuclear fuel for their civilian reactor?” asked Olmert; Israel said it would cooperate with its friends in order to deter the Iranians from continuing their nuclear program.

US-Iran Relations

· No date for US-Iran talks on Iraq were announced; Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini said the meeting will be held in Baghdad; US and Iran are to discuss security situation in Iraq during the talks; Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari said the meeting will take place by mid-February.
· Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei accused US of ignoring the interests and safety of millions Palestinians living in Gaza; Ayatollah Khamenei added US objective is to cause division between the people of Gaza and their elected government.

Leading Domestic Storylines

· Iran celebrated Revolution Day; President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad told a huge rally marking the anniversary of the 1979 revolution that Iran would not back down “one iota” in its nuclear dispute with US; he said the Iranian nation has broken the back of “Global Arrogance” and called on the nation to “remain steadfast”; Ahmadinejad asked the crowd: “Are you ready to retreat from your nuclear rights one step or one iota?” ; the demonstrators chanted: “No, nuclear energy is our obvious right.”
· Iran reported ready to launch 2 more space rockets before placing its first domestically built satellite into orbit this summer; President Ahmadinejad said the first rocket launch on 4 February was a success; Ahmadinejad added that Iran possesses “all fundamental pieces needed to launch a satellite into space”; Ahmadinejad offered details about launch of Kavoshgar-1 [Explorer-1]; he said equipment placed on the head of Explorer-1 collected information on determining the path, pressure, wind, temperature and geographical situation and sent them back to earth.
· Islamic Revolution Guards Corp (IRGC) Commander Maj. Gen. Mohammad Ali Jafari called on Iranians to support “principlist” candidates in the 14 March parliamentary elections; Chief of the Supreme Commander's Staff Maj. Gen. Hasan Firouzabadi also condemned the reformists for seeking a rapprochement with the West; the commander of Basij Force, Iran’s military reserve force, said Basijis should have a “maximum presence” in the elections; Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamene had earlier criticized unnamed Iranian politicians whom he said were being supported by President Bush; Hassan Khomeini, the grandson of Islamic Republic’s founder Ayatollah Khomeini, spoke out against Iranian military interference in political process; Khomeini said his late grandfather had wanted the military to stay out of politics; “those who claim to be loyal to Imam Khomeini should be very sensitive to this order,” said Hassan Khomeini; reformists and moderates have voiced alarm at IRGC’s interference.
· 370 prominent Iranian political and social figures warned against government’s foreign policy on division of Caspian Sea; they expressed “great concern” over published reports that Ahmadinejad’s government was ready to agree to a 13% share of Caspian based on Iran’s length of shorelines; Iran and the former Soviet Union signed a treaty in 1921 and an agreement in 1940 to have common sovereignty of the sea and equal rights for both countries; the signatories called for the Soviet Union’s share to be divided among the successor states that emerged in 1991.

Leading Regional Storylines

· Iraqi Foreign Minister Hoshyar Zebari said Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is to visit Iraq in March; the visit would the first by an Iranian leader in years.
· Iran paraded captured British boat; the British boat captured by Iranians in 2004 was paraded through the streets of Teheran as the country celebrated the anniversary of the Islamic Revolution; the boat was manned by Iranian sailors as it weaved its way through crowds of thousands of Iranians.
· Chinese parts for Iranian F-14s; published reports indicate that China was supplying Iran with parts for its US-made F-14 fighter jets.
· A large number of internet users were affected in Iran and throughout the region after four sections of submarine internet cable were cut in the Persian Gulf and the Mediterranean; submarine cable operators deployed ships to bring the cables up to fix the fault; it has been unprecedented for so many undersea internet cables to be damaged at the same time and in the same area.

Iran's New Centrifuge

Iran has started up its own modified centrifuge at Natanz uranium enrichment plant, AP reported today. The new unit, named IR-2, is reportedly faster than the P-1 centrifuge already in operation.

The IR-2 centrifuges were being tested at Natanz. If the reports on IR-2 capabilities are confirmed, it would indicate that Iran is at a much higher stage of nuclear development that previously thought.

The IR-2 machines were reported to be a homemade version of the advanced P-2 centrifuge whose design Iran had obtained from Pakistani nuclear scientist A.Q. Khan.

The P-2 can enrich uranium gas up to three times faster than the P-1 but Iran until now had difficulty to import special steel rotors needed to build the machines. It appears that Iran has been successful to replace the steel rotors with rotor tubes made of carbon fiber.

AP quoted former UN nuclear inspector David Albright as saying that the ingenuity demonstrated by the Iranians was impressive.

“If you learn how to make carbon fiber rotors, you are very far ahead,” said Albright, an expert at Washington-based Institute for Science and International Security. “They are much cheaper and easier to make, and you can learn to spin them very fast.”

It is estimated that it would take as few as 1,200 new machines to produce enough material for one nuclear weapon in a year as compared to 3,000 older P-1 machines to do the same job.