Saudi-led coalition land/amphibious actions, GCC efforts at UNSC

 

Above: public defiance displayed by Yemeni tribal forces at Sana'a, during Saudi-led coalition efforts directed at Yemen

According to to Reuters:

Yemen's Houthi fighters and their allies seized a central Aden district on Thursday striking a heavy blow against the Saudi-led coalition which has waged a week of air strikes to try to stem advances by the Iran-allied Shi'ite group.

Hours after the Houthis took over Aden's central Crater neighborhood, unidentified armed men arrived by sea in an area of the port city which the Iran-allied Shi'ite fighters have yet to reach.

A Yemeni official denied that ground troops had landed in Aden and a port official said they were armed guards who had disembarked from a Chinese ship trying to bring aid or evacuate civilians.

COMMENTARY: It's possible a Yemen Army formation loyal to Hadi has been landed to contest Ansarullah's push towards the Crater district of southern Aden. There are also reports that Chinese military personnel landed to assist in the evacuation of Chinese nationals, which was reported as partially successful.

A diplomat in Riyadh said Aden had come to symbolize Hadi's fading authority, meaning that Saudi Arabia could not afford to allow it to fall completely under Houthi control. But he said Riyadh's air campaign was so far geared more towards a slow war of attrition than an effective defense of the southern city.

"Saleh and the Houthis are keeping the pressure on Aden, which is the weak point in Saudi strategy," he said. "I think the Saudis would put ground forces into Aden to recapture it if it falls. It is a red line for them."

COMMENTARY: If the Saudis have planned for a long duration, aerial bombardment campaign, this would differ from the Israeli approach, which is short and sharp (other than the First Lebanon War, which is widely regarded as unsuccessful and ultimately counter-productive).

Landing Saudi troops at Port Aden for an urban fight risks casualties, with an attrition war not favorable to the invading force. It also requires considerable logistical support, likely involving the United States.

There are also reports of Royal Saudi Land Force suffering its first KIA during intense ground warfare against Ansarullah forces at the Saudi-Yemeni border. There may ebven be an inexorable pull for Saudi forces to foray into Yemeni territory, or even to invade in force.

In the Arabian Sea port of Mukalla, 500 km (300 miles) east of Aden, suspected al Qaeda fighters stormed the central prison and freed 150 prisoners, some of them al Qaeda detainees, sources in the local police and administration said.

They named one of the escapees as Khaled Batarfi, a provincial al Qaeda leader who was arrested four years ago, security sources said. Soldiers loyal to Hadi clashed with the suspected al Qaeda fighters in Mukalla early on Thursday, residents said.

COMMENTARY: This represents a serious blow to American counter-terror efforts, and considered an unfortunate byproduct of the Saudi-led coalition military effort directed towards Yemen.

According to AFP:

Gulf countries are locked in tough negotiations with Russia on a UN draft resolution to impose an arms embargo and sanctions on Yemen, diplomats said Wednesday.

[…]

The six-nation Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) has been negotiating with the five permanent Security Council members and Jordan on a text after Saudi Arabia launched an air campaign on Yemen on March 26, without a UN mandate.

The GCC is no longer seeking a resolution that supports Saudi-led military action in Yemen, which Saudi Arabia argues is legal because it is being carried out at Hadi's request, diplomats said.

But its push for an international arms embargo and sanctions targeting the Huthis has run into major opposition from Russia, which has friendly relations with Iran.

[…]

During negotiations, Russia presented amendments to the draft resolution that would extend an arms embargo to all sides, including Hadi's forces in the conflict, diplomats said.

Moscow also opposed sweeping sanctions against the Huthis and requested that a list be submitted of individual names of rebel leaders who could be targeted for a global travel ban and assets freeze.

[…]

The UN's peace envoy for Yemen, Jamal Benomar, was in New York on Wednesday for meetings amid reports that Gulf countries were demanding that he be replaced.

COMMENTARY: At the Arab sumit held last week at Sharm El-Sheikh, Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal accused Putin of hypocrisy after a letter by Putin was read aloud at the meeting and made public. Faisal referred to Russian assistance to Syria during that ongoing conflict. Now GCC members are seeking Russian approval of a UNSC resolution to assist their coalition war directed towards Yemen; a war not too dissimilar to Russia's in its pursuit of maintaining political leadership preferences in neighboring Ukraine, for which Russia has been economically sanctioned by the West. Many ironies during the multiple flash points of configuration currently afflicting the Middle East.

It's also interesting that the Saudi-led coalition war directed towards Yemen, as well as the military command dispute during the Salahadin campaign in Iraq reported late last week, doesn't appear to have impacted Iran's diplomatic posture during high-stakes nuclear negotiations at Lausanne.

Battle of Aden intensifying - BBC News

Video still of claimed Ansarullah-operated T-55 tank during Battle of Aden 

According to BBC News:

Fighting in the Yemeni city of Aden has intensified as Houthi rebels try to seize control of the city.

Houthi rebels allied with troops loyal to the former President Ali Abdullah Saleh have reportedly advanced deeper into Aden to try and wrest control of the city from fighters loyal to President Abdrabbuh Mansour Hadi.

The BBC's Security Correspondent Frank Gardner says that if reports of rebel tanks entering the centre of the southern port city are confirmed, then the rebels will have consolidated their grip on the most important parts of Yemen.

COMMENTARY: Pro-Hadi forces should possess considerable advantages in firepower from Saudi-led coalition tactical aviation, naval gunfire and U.S. provided intelligence.

However it is being reported Ansarullah revolutionary forces have made penetrations into Aden's urban terrain, making civilian casualties and collateral damage an increasing concern.

Yemen Army formations and some Yemeni-Sunni armed elements reportedly aligned with the Ansarullah revolutionary cause, while observers pay attention to former President Ali Abdullah Saleh for a possible flip against Ansarullah in support of Hadi. How, in the future, Hadi could be successfully rehabilitated as accepted leader of a unified Yemen state remains an unanswered question. Also, there's concern the byproduct of this Saudi-led coaltion military action serving to improve the military fortunes of AQAP.

Map depiction, approximation of forces for 02APR15 at Battle of Aden

Ansarullah motorized element, claimed to be photographed on Aden coastside. Note U.S.-origin Ford F-350 Super Duty truck.

Claimed transport of humanitarian relief supplies from Iran to Yemen on 31MAR15. 

Foreground aircraft: IRGC-operated Pouya Air Ilyushin Il-76TD, reg. EP-PUL (cn 0033448393)

Background aircraft: IRGC-operated Pouya Air Antonov An-74TK-200, reg. EP-PUM

[photo: Islamic Republic News Agency]

Iranian Support Seen Crucial for Yemen’s Houthis - Report

Iran has supplied weapons, money and training to the Shia Houthi militia that seized Yemen’s capital in September, Reuters quoted Yemeni, Western and Iranian officials as saying.

A senior Yemeni security official said Iran has steadily supported the Houthis, who have fought the central government since 2004 from their northern stronghold of Saadah.

“Before the entrance into Sanaa, Iran started sending weapons here and gave a lot of support with money via visits abroad,” said the Yemeni official. Iran saw victory would be swift in Yemen, unlike in Iraq and Syria, and “with not much expenses,” added the official. “(Reuters, 15 December)

A second Yemeni security official told Reuters that “weapons are still coming in by sea and there’s money coming in through transfer.”

A Western source also told Reuters that Houthis have been getting training and money from Iran.

“It has been happening over a year. We’ve seen Houthis going out to Iran and Lebanon for military training,” said the Western source.

“We think there is cash, some of which is channeled via Hezbollah and sacks of cash arriving at the airport. The numbers of those going for training are enough for us to worry about.”

And a senior Iranian official told Reuters that the Quds Force had a “few hundred” military personnel in Yemen who train Houthi fighters, He said about 100 Houthis had traveled to Iran this year for training at an IRGC base near Qom.

The Iranian official added that there were Iranian military advisors stationed in Yemen, and the pace of money and arms getting to the Houthis had increased since their seizure of Sanaa.

“Everything is about the balance of power in the region,” said the Iranian official. “ Iran wants a powerful Shia presence in the region, that is why it has got involved in Yemen as well.” (Reuters, 15 December)

Iran regards Saudi Arabia as its main rival in the region, and with Houthis in power in Sanaa it sees a shift in balance of power in Yemen against the kingdom and in its favor.

In 2013, the cargo ship “Jihan 1” was seized by Yemeni officials, reportedly smuggling weapons to the insurgents. The Yemeni officals told Reuters that the cargo included Katyushka rockets M-122, heat-seeking-surface-to-air missiles, RPG-7s, Iranian-made night vision goggles, and artillery systems that “tracked and naval targets 40km away.”

There were also silencers, 2.66 tons of RDX explosives, C-4 explosives, ammunition, bullets and electrical transistors on board the cargo ship.

A few days after Sanaa takeover, Houthi gunmen surrounded the National Security headquarters and freed from jail eight Yemeni crewmembers of “Jihan 1.” Two members of Hezbollah jailed for providing military training to the Houthis were also freed from the jail.

With the Houthis now in control of the capital, the airport and most of the port of Hodeidah, more overt Iranian support for the Houthis is expected.

Photo credit: A Houthi militiaman in Rada, Yemen; 22 November 2014 (Mohamed Al-Sayaghi/Reuters

Yemen's Shite rebels overrun Al-Qaeda stronghold at Rada'a

According to Associated Press:

Yemen's Shiite rebels on Friday overran an al-Qaida stronghold after days of battling the militants for the city in the country's central heartland, a Yemeni official and a tribal leader said.

The capture of the city of Radda, in the in the province of Bayda, came with the help of a Yemeni army commander, the two said.

The Shiite rebels known as Houthis have been fighting both al-Qaida militants and Sunni tribes over the past few days. The rebels, who in September gained control of the capital, Sanaa, earlier this week overran a key Yemeni port city on the Red Sea.

The Houthis entered Radda on Friday, after the commander of Yemeni army's Battalion 193 gave up his troops positions, a security official and a tribal leader from the city said.

An interesting situation report from Saudi Arabia's perspective on the Shia advances in Yemen has recently been rendered at Al-Monitor:

[I]t is very frustrating in Riyadh to see the Zaydi Houthis and their Iranian friends doing so well in Yemen. From King Abdullah bin Abdulaziz’s perspective, the kingdom is under dual sieges. The first is Iran and its proxies, Hezbollah and the regimes in Syria and Iraq. The second is al-Qaeda and its offshoot the Islamic State (IS) with their strongholds in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen.

The Houthi advance threatens to plunge Yemen into the same kind of sectarian struggle that grips Syria and Iraq. The Sunni majority in Yemen and the Zaydi minority are increasingly polarizing the country on sectarian grounds, with the Saudis and Iranians fighting another proxy war along the Sunni-Shiite divide.

Since the United States was Saleh’s ally for years and now backs Hadi, the Zaydis are, not surprisingly, anti-American. Washington’s close ties to Riyadh add to their animus against the United States. A bumper sticker on Houthi vehicles proclaims “Death to America, Death to Israel, A curse on the Jews, Victory to Islam.” At the same time, the Houthis and AQAP are mortal enemies. Just as in Iraq, the pro-Iranian Shiite Zaydis in Yemen are opponents of extremist Sunni ideologues such as IS and AQAP.

Houthi militiamen, observed better equipped & organized

Above: Houthi militiamen seen outfitted in new Yemen Army issue digital camouflage BDUs and Yemen Army issue boots. Observed 14OCT14 at Sanaa, Yemen.

Houthi security enforcing perimeter around coffins of persons killed by SVIED attack carried out by AQAP. Houthi security seen outfitted in Yemen law enforcement issue high visibility vests. Observed 14OCT14 at Sanaa, Yemen.

Houthi militiaman seen outfitted in new Yemen Police issue uniform, including BDUs, boots and beret. Note Houthi slogan sticker attached to magazine of AK-type assault rifle. Observed 08OCT14 at Sanaa, Yemen.

Houthi appear to have integrated into or supplanted Yemen Army and police ranks in the capital city. This is a core source of contention for Saudi Arabia towards Iran as seen earlier this week in the diplomatic spat made public between the two countries, with Saudi Arabia identifying Iran as a cause of Houthi military and political ascendancy currently taking effect in parts of Yemen.

Houthi militiamen as they appeared on 22SEP14 upon their takeover of Yemen Army First Armored Division military compound near Sanaa, Yemen.

Houthi capture of Yemen Army T-55 medium tank, observed 22SEP14 near Sanaa, Yemen

Houthi capture of Yemen Army T-55 medium tank, observed 22SEP14 near Sanaa, Yemen

Houthi capture of Yemen Army BMP-2 infantry fighting vehicle, observed 22SEP14 near Sanaa, Yemen

Houthi capture of battle-damaged Yemen Army REVA 4x4 MKII armored personnel carrier 

Houthi fighters in Ibb, Yemen, dated 15OCT14. Fighter at right seen outfitted in Yemen Army issue 3-Color DCU type field jacket.

Photos: Khaled Abdullah at Reuters and Hani Mohammed at Associated Press

IRGC Officers Freed in Yemen

Asharq al-Awsat reports that several Iranian military personnel, probably IRGC or IRGC-QF officers, who were detained in Yemen, were released on Wednesday after the Huthi rebels took control of the country’s national security headquarters where the detainees were being held. The Huthis are in control of most of the Yemeni capital Sanaa.   

The Iranians were the crew of the Jihan 1, an Iranian ship that was captured off Yemeni coast in January 2013 for smuggling a large cache of weapons into Yemen. Yemeni security sources told Asharq al-Awsat that the Iranians were affiliated with the IRGC.

Meanwhile, Yemeni authorities released two other Iranians they arrested earlier this year at Sanaa International Airport on charges of training Huthi insurgents, AFP reported on Thursday. The release of those two Iranians was secured after meditation efforts from Oman. They left Sanaa airport on board an Omani plane. (AFP/Asharq al-Awsat, 25 September)

On political front, Yemeni President Hadi appointed two new presidential advisors from the Houthi Ansar Allah organization and the Southern Yemeni secessionist movement, Al-Hirak. The government also cut fuel prices by 15 percent, a major demand of the opposition. After the price hikes in July, a number of protest camps across the capital were set up, manned ny the opposition for over a month.

Photo credit: Houthi rebels man a checkpoint in Yemeni capital Sanaa; 24 September 2014. Note Huthi’s official logo on display at the checkpoint. The group's logo consists of five slogans: “God is Great” - "Death to America” - “Death to Israel" - “Damn the Jews" - “Victory to Islam.” (Photo: Khaled Abdullah/Reuters/Asharq al-Awsat)

Revolution in Yemen

Large parts of Yemen’s capital Sanaa have been taken over by Houthi rebels. The leader of Houthi insurgents, Abdel Malik al-Houthi, described the takeover as a “successful revolution.” The rebels have taken over key government buildings in the capital, including the country’s central bank, and several military bases.

Yemeni President Abed Rabbo Mansour Hadi has signed a power-sharing agreement with the rebels, who had called for the “corrupt” government to quit. Rebel leader al-Houti called the agreement a “victory for all the people.” He said the accord will lead to fuel price cuts and economic reforms.

Former longtime Yemeni strongman Ali Abdullah Saleh was ousted from power amid popular Arab Spring protests in 2011. Now the Houthi insurgents are moving against Islah Party forces, the largest opposition party in the country, searching for and arresting their leaders, to consolidate their position as the sole functioning opposition force. Years of unrest following 2011 ouster of Saleh have also contributed to the rise of Al Qaeda-affiliated militants in the country.

The Houthi tribesmen are predominantly Zaidi Shia, who like the mainstream Shias believe in Imamate, but otherwise are close to Sunni traditions of Islam, and unique to Yemen. Iran’s Quds Force has actively supported the Houthi insurgents since their uprisings against the government in 2011. The Islah (“Reform”) Party is a coalition of Islamist groups, including the Muslim Brotherhood, and their leader Mohammad Qahtan is considered a moderate Islamist. The party, an unorthodox alliance, also encompasses Islamic extremists and tribesmen.

Photo credit: Houthi insurgents in Yemeni capital of Sanaa (Sky News)

Iran and Yemeni Conflict

The Pan-Arab newspaper Al-Quds Al-Arabi is reporting today that Hamas leader Khalid Mashaal is mediating between Iran and Yemen over the conflict in Yemeni province of Sa’ada. Iran is supporting the anti-government Houthis Shia rebels (Saudis are supporting the Yemeni government).

Al-Quds Al-Arabi also reports that Yemen has for second time rejected a request by Iranian Foreign Minister Manuchehr Mottaki to visit the country for talks with Yemeni leaders.

Yemeni army has launched a massive attack against the Houdhis and has said that it will bring Sa’ada under its control within the next 24 hours.

Increasing Saudi Rivalry Toward Iran - Analysis

Iranian state media is now reporting that the Kurdish militant group PJAK is being "directly supported" by Al Qaida, in PJAK's war against Iran (see Iran Links Kurdish Militants to Al Qaida). In this instance, Iran's use of the term "Al Qaida" can actually be interpreted as code for "Saudi Arabia", for it is understood that the majority of funding for Al Qaida comes from Saudi sources.

Left: Kurdish PJAK guerilla forces, Right: Iranian IRGC guardsman

The Saudis consider themselves on the defensive in their perceived rivalry with Iran. They lament the Sunni loss of Iraq's government to the Shia, a loss they see as a huge gain for Shia Iran. They also perceive their influence waning in Lebanon, with ground lost in the political arena through an ascending, Iran-supported Hezbollah. But lately what really has the Saudis concerned are the recent battlefield successes by Houthi rebels, taking place on its immediate southern border with Yemen. The Houthi (الحوثيون‎) are considered Zaydi Shia. The Saudi-supported Yemen government, which is hard pressed in fighting the relatively under-equipped rebels, accuses Shia Iran and Shia Iraq of supporting the insurgency. And by extension, Sunni Saudi Arabia makes the same claim. (Iran, Iraq and the Houthi deny the claim.)

Left: Victorious Houthi rebels atop captured T-55 tank

Right: Armor and crews of the Yemen Army

The Saudis have responded by means of public posturing. For example, press reports have recently surfaced of Saudi Arabia giving the go ahead for the Israeli Air Force to use its airspace to strike at Iran's nuclear infrastructure. Then came the report that the Saudis requested purchase of the S-300 SAM system from Russia, based upon the condition it not be sold to Iran (see Saudis to get Russian missiles instead of Iran?). In none of these instances did Saudi Arabia go out of its way to dispute the reports.

Left: Region of the Houthi-Yemen conflict, Right: Region of the PJAK-Iran conflict

While Iran has shrugged off these "Saudi antics", it nevertheless remains quite sensitive to its own border fight with the Kurdish PJAK rebel group (which operates in the same general area where three American journalists were recently arrested for illegally trespassing). It is indeed possible that Iranian intelligence has acquired knowledge of Saudi support for PJAK, hence the reference to "Al Qaida" in its recent state media report. This could potentially have repercussions for the PJAK battlefield in northwestern Iran, as well the Houthi battlefield near the southern border of Saudi Arabia.

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A video provided by the Houthi rebels, showing plenty of wrecked Yemen Army vehicles.

YouTube video of a Yemen Air Force MiG-21 brought down by Houthi anti-aircraft fire. Questions have arisen over whether Houthi rebels have been provided with MANPADS. An unverified US source reports theses weapons are being furnished by Iran, however no physical proof has been provided to back up such claims.

--MARK PYRUZ