Annapolis: The World Minus Iran

Annapolis Conference

(State Department Photo)

The leaders of US, Israel and Palestine along with nearly 40 foreign ministers including 20 Arab and Muslim foreign ministers and the leaders of the UN, EU, and the Arab League were in attendance in Annapolis. So much for Ayatollah Khamenei’s near-fatwa: Boycott Annapolis!

The day after the US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice announced that the US will host a Middle East conference to put Israeli-Palestinian peace process back on track, Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in a rare appearance as the Friday’s Prayer Imam, urged Arab and Muslim countries to boycott the conference. Khamenei said the Palestinians see the conference as “a hoax” which will bring them no benefit. Yet he could only muster the support of Hamas and Hezbollah, two terrorist organizations heavily financed by Iran, to oppose Annapolis. Even the Syrians showed up at the conference. Today, Tehran is abuzz of what went wrong.

Khamenei used up a lot of political capital to call for the boycott of Annapolis almost certain that aside from Hamas and Hezbollah a number of Arab countries, starting with Syria, would heed the call. Even on Monday, just a day before the conference was to take place, the Iranian leaders were trying desperately to persuade the Arabs not to go. President Ahmadinejad personally telephoned Saudi King Abdullah and Syrian President Asad in a last-ditch attempt to defeat Annapolis. He later angrily criticized participants of the conference. Iran’s isolation has never been so overwhelmingly apparent.

The Annapolis gathering, no matter how it would affect the Israeli-Palestinian peace process, was already a major defeat for the Islamic Republic. To show Tehran still matters, the minister of defense announced the production of a new, indigenously developed solid-fuel ballistic missile with a range of 2,000 km-2,500 km, covering the whole Middle East, named Ashura (a telling choice of name, as Ashura symbolizes historic Shia war against the Sunnis.)

Annapolis specially created high tensions between Tehran and Damascus. Bashar Assad showed he would sacrifice his “special” relations with Khamenei and Ahmadinejad to be back on track to regain the Golan Heights. Indeed any serious peace initiative involving the Israelis, the Palestinians and the Syrians would do more to isolate the Islamic Republic than any US diplomatic or military action against the country. And this might explain the change of heart in the White House after seven long years. Resolving the Middle East conflict might now be considered in the US national interest and a short cut to isolate the Islamic Republic.

News from Iran

The Annapolis Conference dominated the media coverage in Iran. The country’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei had urged Arab countries to boycott the conference. This week he said Palestinians would see the conference as a “hoax.” He predicted Annapolis to be a “total defeat” for US and Israeli designs to fool Palestinian people. Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad called King Abdullah of Saudi Arabia and President Bashar Assad of Syria to dissuade them from going to Annapolis. He later angrily criticized participants of Annapolis Conference. Iran’s isolation in the region has never been so overwhelmingly apparent. It could only muster the support of Hamas and Hezbollah, two terrorist organizations heavily financed by Iran, to oppose Annapolis. The Iranian leaders must be surprised to find Iran so isolated in the Arab world, including Syria, on an issue of such importance to them, an issue for which they spent so much political capital.

Annapolis Conference

· Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei urged Arab countries to boycott Annapolis conference; a day before the conference, Khamenie said Annapolis was doomed to failure; Iran’s leader predicted “total defeat” for US and Israel in their new initiative to resolve Palestinian conflic.
· Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad called Saudi king and said he wished “Saudi Arabia was not listed among the attending states at the Annapolis conference;” Ahmadinejad warned Arab countries against “the plots and tricks by the Zionist enemy;” referring to conference attendees, Ahmadinejad said “Who among them is the representative of the people of Palestine? What gives them the right to go there?” Ahmadinejad added he was “sorry” that some Arab leaders decided to attend Annapolis; he said Annapolis will have no benefits for Palestinians.
· Hamas opened “anti-Annapolis” conference in Gaza; Islamic Jihad, Popular Resistance Committees and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine - General Command joint the conference; an Islamic Jihad leader Mohammed Al Hendi said Annapolis conference will promote a false illusion of a Palestinian statehood on 10 percent of the real Palestinian land.
· Hamas and Hezbollah announced they would boycott Annapolis Conference.
· Hamas warned of more attacks on Israel after Annapolis Conference; Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal said the period after Annapolis will witness an increase of resistance against Israel.

Iran Nuclear Program

· Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad ruled out giving “the slightest concession” in Iran’s nuclear standoff with the West; if they manage to take even a small concession from us, they will later seek other concessions by making threats, Ahmadinejad added.
· Iran’s chief nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili said he will meet EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana in late November; Jalili-Solana meeting was scheduled to break down nuclear impasse; Solana needed to report back to UN Security Council by end November.
· Iran’s Ambassador to Morocco Vahid Ahmadi said causing concerns over Iran's nuclear program are aimed at misleading public opinions about Israeli threats; he added threats to impose additional economic sanctions on Iran as well as attack on the country are unfounded and irrational.
· Iran’s Atomic Energy Organization (IAEO) reported Iran has produced its own fuel pellets and fuel rods for the heavy water reactor in Arak; Fuel Manufacturing Plant in Isfahan is producing the pellets and the rods; the 40-megawatt heavy water nuclear reactor is under construction and it is expected to become operational in mid-2008; Arak is a plutonium-based reactor.
· Russia was poised to ship nuclear fuel to Iran for its Bushehr nuclear reactor; IAEA inspectors arrived in Russia to check the uranium fuel it has produced for Iran's first nuclear power plant; during his trip to Iran last October, Russian President Vladimir Putin promised that Russia would complete the Bushehr plant.

US-Iran Relations

· US Secretary of Defense Robert Gates said at a gathering at Whitman Air Force base in Missouri that military action against Iran remains an option if Iran continues to pursue its nuclear program; Whitman is the home to B-2 stealth bombers which would be used on any bombardment of Iran.
· US Navy and UK Royal Navy announced their nuclear attack submarines had staged an anti-submarine warfare exercise in early October in the Arabian Sea; the maneuvers, dubbed Exercise “Sandstone, were to practice detecting, tracking and engaging Iranian submarines.
· Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini denounced US officials' anti-Iran propaganda in Iraq; Hosseini was reacting to published reports on US officials and military commanders implicating Iran of being involved in recent blast in Baghdad bazaar; Iran rejected those charges.
· US and Iran agreed to hold their 4th round of talks on Iraqi security in the coming weeks.

Leading Domestic Storylines

· Iran’s influential daily Jomhouri Islami in its lead editorial described state of Iranian politics as “chaotic;” Jomhouri Islami accused President Ahmadinejad of behaving illegally towards government’s critics; It is unbecoming a law-abiding country to allow a person in whatever capacity to act as plaintiff, judge and executor, the editorial said; spreading propaganda and auctioning the reputations of adversaries has displaced the rule of law in our nation, the paper added; Jomhouri Islami is believed to having close ties to the country’s supreme leader.
· An Iranian court acquitted former nuclear negotiator Hossein Mousavian of spying and treason charges; Mousavian was convicted of a lesser charge of propagating against the ruling system; Iran’s President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad had called Moussavian a spy and all critics of his nuclear policy “traitors.”
· Iran’s highest court ordered a new investigation into the death of Iranian-Canadian photojournalist Zahra Kazemi; Kazemi died while detained in Evin prison in Tehran in July 2003; A presidential commission inquiry revealed Kazemi died from a “fractured skull caused by a physical attack;” Iran’s judiciary originally disputed commission’s findings.
· Iranian military reported it has manufactured a new ballistic missile with a range of 2,000 kilometers (1,200 miles); the new missile, called Ashura, would be capable of reaching US bases in the Middle East as well as Israel.
· Iranian military reported it has manufactured a Ghadir-class submarine which will be delivered to the navy on 28 November; the light submarine will be capable of rapid maneuvers in high speed and is fitted with the latest electronics and communications gears; the navy is planning to conduct war games next February in the Straits of Hormuz, the entrance to the Persian Gulf.
· An Iranian fighter jet today crashed into Chabahar Bay in the Gulf of Oman; two crew members were reported killed in the crash.
· Iranian security forces arrested 11 members of Kurdish separatist group PJAK; PJAK has been behind a string of deadly attacks in northwestern Iran in recent months.

Regional Storylines

· Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini said Tehran will not support any particular Lebanese presidential candidates; Hosseini said Iran pushes consensus among various Lebanese personalities, parties and ethnic groups.
· Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan said Turkey has rejected US call to scrap energy cooperation deal with Iran.

Iran and Annapolis Conference

The day after the US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice announced that the US will host a Middle East conference to put Israeli-Palestinian peace process back on track, Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in a rare appearance as the Friday’s Prayer Imam, urged Arab countries to boycott the conference (Keyhan, 13 October). Khamenei said the Palestinians see the conference as a hoax which will bring them no benefit.

“How could other governments of the region approve of this conference? They should regard it a mischievous deception,” Khamenei proclaimed. “This US-proposed move is in fact an initiative of US regime to save the Zionist regime.”

The conference will take place on Tuesday at US Naval Academy in Annapolis, Maryland. Palestinian Authority President Abbas, Israeli Prime Minister Olmert, Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Faisal, Syrian Deputy Foreign Minister Mekdad, along with all other Arab ministers and the ministers from the Middle East Quartet, the G-8, the permanent members of UN Security Council and other key international actors will be in attendance. Nearly 50 countries and organizations would participate. So much for Khamenei’s boycott!

President Ahmadinejad today angrily criticized participants of Annapolis Conference.

“The people of Palestine are alive. The people of Palestine are awake. Who among them is the representative of the people of Palestine? What gives them the right to go there?” Ahmadinejad said (IRIB, 25 November). “This is the result of a lack of political acumen on behalf of those who profess to be politicians… Nations in the region will not accept it. The Palestinian nation, which is standing in the frontlines of the resistance movement, will not accept it,” Ahmadinejad continued.

Hamas and Hezbollah joined Iran in attacking the conference. Hamas actually warned that it will step up attacks against Israeli troops to register its opposition to the conference.

“The period that will follow the Annapolis conference will witness an increase of the resistance against the Zionist occupation in the West Bank and Gaza Strip,” said Mussa Abu Marzuq, top aide to Hamas leader Khaled Meshaal (AFP, 24 November).

Iran’s isolation in the region has never been so overwhelmingly apparent. It could only muster the support of two terrorist organizations heavily financed by Iran to oppose Annapolis. Even Khamenei’s rare personal appeal against attending the conference could not even pursue the Syrians. Annapolis is becoming a major defeat for Iran’s diplomacy, or lack of.