President Ashraf Ghani of Afghanistan

Ashraf Ghani was inaugurated as president of Afghanistan today. He quickly appointed his rival in the bitterly contested runoff election, Abdullah Abdullah, as government’s chief executive officer, a Prime Minister-type position created as part of a compromise brokered by U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry.

President Ghani declared a halt to the degeneration of relations with the United States under the departing president, Hamid Karzai, who refused to sign a long-term deal to keep American troops in Afghanistan.

“Now it’s time that we enter a new era of our relationship with the United States, Europe and other countries of the world,” Ghani said.

Ghani, 65, is an anthropologist by training, and has worked for the World Bank for many years. He is the co-author, along with Ms. Claire Lockhart, of a book on problems facing the developing countries, “Fixing Failed States: A Framework for Rebuilding a Fractured World.”

“Within these countries, vicious networks of criminality, violence and drugs feed on disenfranchised populations and uncontrolled territory,” Ghani and Lockhart wrote, describing how the people in countries from Latin America to Africa and Central Asia are “locked into lives of misery, without a stake in their countries or any certainty about or control over their own futures.” (The New York Times, 29 September)

Photo credit: Afghan President Ashraf Ghani (center) and Government’s Chief Executive (Prime Minister) Abdullah Abdullah at inauguration ceremony. Kabul; 29 September 2014 (NYT)

Power-Sharing Agreement in Afghanistan

UPDATE: Ashraf Ghani Declared President-Elect

The two candidates for president of Afghanistan today signed a U.S.-brokered agreement on a power sharing government. Ashraf Ghani is expected to be declared winner of the presidential election, and be sworn in as the country’s new president as early as Monday, and his rival, Abdullah Abdullah, would effectively become his prime minister, with substantial powers of his own. Ghani's presence at the Arg, the presidential palace, will be a welcomed change over Karzai's years of standstill.

The agreement prevents the collapse of the Afghan state as Abdullah’s supporters, mainly the Tajiks and the Hazara, had threatened to take over power by force, or form a parallel government, if he was declared the loser in the election. Ghani represents the Pashtun majority.

UPDATE: Afghanistan’s election commission declared former finance minister Ashraf Ghani as the country’s president-elect. The announcement came hours after Ghani and Abdullah signed a power-sharing agreement.

File photo: Afghanistan's President-Elect Ashraf Ghani (AFP)

Kerry in Kabul

Secretary of State John Kerry arrived in Kabul today to meet with Afghan presidential candidates Ashraf Ghani and Abdullah Abdullah, as well as President Hamid Karzai, the State Department announced.

Kerry will follow-up on his July visit to Kabul, encouraging both candidates to help accelerate the audit process of the election results, and make progress on talks to form a unity government when the results are announced, said Jen Psaki, the spokeswoman for the State Department.

Kerry’s surprise trip to Kabul came in the same day that his top deputies, Under Secretary Sherman and Deputy Secretary William Burns, went to Geneva to resume nuclear talks with Iranian negotiators; so much for slow August!

UPDATE: Ashraf Ghani and Abdullah Abdullah reaffirmed their previously-negotiated commitments to the audit process and the formation of a national unity government by the end of the month, Secretary Kerry announced after holding talks with both candidates and with President Karzai. The winner will lead the government, but the loser will also have a key role.

Afghan Presidential Candidates Agree to Audit, Unity Government

In a Deal Brokered by John Kerry

Afghanistan’s two presidential candidates reached agreement Saturday on an audit of their contested election and on forming a national unity government, regardless of who wins, the Associated Press reported. The deal was brokered by Secretary of State John Kerry during his visit to Kabul. Kerry conducted shuttle diplomacy between the two candidates late into the night Friday and on Saturday.

“This will be still a difficult road because there are important obligations required and difficult decisions to be made,” Kerry told reporters after briefing Afghanistan's current president, Hamid Karzai, shortly after midnight. (AP/LATimes, 12 July)

Former Finance Minister Ashraf Ghani and former Foreign Minister Abdullah Abdullah agreed to abide by an internationally supervised audit of all 8 million ballots in the presidential election. They vowed to form a national unity government once the results are announced.

Abdullah praised Ghani for working toward the accord on the audit and the unity government. Ghani returned the compliments, lauding his competitor's patriotism and commitment to a dialogue that promotes national unity.

Photo credit: Secretary of State John Kerry, left, with Afghan presidential candidates Ashraf Ghani, center, and Abdullah Abdullah. Kabul, 12 July 2014. (Shah Marai/AFP/Getty Images)

Ghani Wins Presidential Election; Abdullah Reject Result as ‘Coup’

Afghan Presidential Election

The Independent Election Commission of Afghanistan today announced that Ashraf Ghani won the second round of the country’s presidential election by a huge margin. The preliminary results show Ghani with 4,485,888 votes, or 56.44 percent of the vote, and Abdullah Abdullah with 3,461,639 votes, or 43.56 percent. The final tally might change when the official numbers come out on 22 July.

Ghani would succeed Hamid Karzai as Afghan president in the country’s first peaceful transfer of power, but Abdullah’s camp reiterated its claim of massive fraud, and rejected the results, calling it a “coup” against the people, putting Abdullah on a dangerous collision course with Ghani.

“We don't accept the results which were announced today and we consider this as a coup against people's votes,” said Mujib Rahman Rahimi, a spokesman for Abdullah's campaign. (Reuters, 7 July)

Officials said, however, this was not the final result.

“The announcement of preliminary results does not mean that the leading candidate is the winner and there is possibly the outcome might change after we inspect complaints,” Election Commission’s chief Yousuf Nuristani told reporters.

File photo: Ashraf Ghani, the winner of Afghanistan’s disputed presidential election. (Tasvir Afghanistan)

Afghan Election Result Expected on Monday

Ashraf Ghani Apparent Winner

The announcement of the preliminary result of Afghan presidential election, which was scheduled for 2 July, got postponed to Monday so the winning candidate could pursue the other to support the first peaceful power transfer in modern Afghan history, perhaps by forming a cabinet with significant presence by both sides.

Based on Abdullah Abdullah’s continued claim of industrial-scale fraud in the election, it was obvious that Ashraf Ghani was the winner and will become the country’s president during a delicate period marked by significant U.S. troop drawdown and a rising tide of Islamic fundamentalism in the Middle East.

As a reminder of the perilous road ahead for the new president, the Taliban insurgents set fire today to about 200 oil tanker trucks supplying fuel for NATO forces in an attack just outside Kabul, Reuters reported. Television footage showed black smoke billowing above the site of the attack.

File photo: Dr. Ashraf Ghani, the apparent winner of Afghan presidential election, at 2014 Davos World Economic Forum. (Tasvir Afghanistan)

Afghanistan Postpones Announcement of Election Results

Chairman of Afghan Election Commission Ahmad Yousuf Nuristani said today the partial results of the second round of presidential election would not be announced today as previously scheduled; adding the postponement will take “a few days.”  

The preliminary results were expected to show Ashraf Ghani well ahead of Abdullah Abdullah to become the next Afghan president. On Wednesday, Abdullah, expecting a Ghani victory announcement, demanded the election commission stop counting ballots and withdrew his election observers from the process.

Postponing the announcement of the results of the election indicates the seriousness of the situation developing in Afghanistan. If Abdullah refuses to accept the results at this very late stage, the country’s fragile political system could split along ethnic lines with catastrophic consequences for Afghanistan and the region, which already is besieged with ethnic fighting.

Abdullah complaint is that his opponent, Ashraf Ghani, and President Karzai orchestrated a huge fraud to block his election as the first Tajik president, a charge Karzai and Ghani have denied. Ghani on Friday called on Abdullah to respect the electoral system they participated in and ask the election commission to investigate irregularities after the results are announced.

File photo: Ashraf Ghani, expected to have been announced the preliminary winner of the presidential election. The election commission on Saturday postponed the announcement. (Photo taken at 2014 Davos – tasvirafghanistan.com)

Afghans Head to Polls to Choose New President

Afghans headed back to the polls in the second and final round of the country’s presidential election to choose between former anti-Taliban fighter Abdullah Abdullah and ex-World Bank economist Ashraf Ghani.

Electing a new president to replace Karzai will be the first democratic transfer of power in Afghan tumultuous history. Today’s voting was also a victory for the country’s security forces that prevented any major disruptions by the Taliban.

The new president will take power in a crucial time for the country. The U.S. and NATO forces will end their combat mission by the end of this year amid a general upheaval in the Islamic world and a growing insurgency by the Taliban inside Afghanistan.

Twelve million voters were eligible to cast ballots at 6,365 polling centers across Afghanistan, with preliminary results due on 2 July.

UPDATE: Turnout in the second round of presidential election was reported to be very high, some calling it “mammoth,” especially among women; an encouraging sign for a people under the Taliban threat. Warmest congratulations to our Afghan friends and to all Afghans.

File photo: Abdullah Abdullah (l.) and Ashraf Ghani

Abdullah Is Clear Front Runner in Afghan Election

Abdullah Abdullah, a longtime opponent of Afghan President Hamid Karzai, emerged Saturday as the clear front-runner in Afghanistan’s presidential election. In preliminary results released today, Abdullah had won 45 percent of the vote, not enough to avoid a runoff with Ashraf Ghani, a former World Bank economist and a Karzai advisor, who had won 32 percent. (The New York Times, 26 April)

Abdullah, if he wins in the second round, would be expected to sign bilateral security agreement with the United States. He has been a harsh critic of Karzai on the issue, saying Karzai’s refusal to sign the BSA had imperiled Afghanistan’s security in the midst of a war. U.S. and NATO have said without the BSA, they would not retain any troops in the country beyond their major drawdown of forces in December.

In a sign of alignment of U.S. and Iranian interests in Afghanistan, Iran was also seen as favoring Abdullah’s presidency.

Photo credit: Abdullah Abdullah, shown at his residence in Kabul on Thursday 24 April 2014. (The New York Times)

Abdullah, Ghani Lead Afghan Presidential Race

Abdullah Abdullah leads the race to become Afghanistan's next president, with Ashraf Ghani in the second place. The country’s Independent Election Commission today released the preliminary results based on nearly 50 percent of the vote nationwide, showing Abdullah at 44.4 percent and Ghani at 33.2 percent. (Reuters, 20 April)

Karzai’s favorite candidate, Zalmay Rassoul, is in distant third at 10.4 percent.

The second round of election would be held by 28 May between the two front-runners if no candidate receives more than 50 percent of the votes in the first round, which is exceedingly likely given the unexpectedly strong showing by Ashraf Ghani.

Photo: Afghan presidential election front-runners: Abdullah Abdullah (left) and Ashraf Ghani. (Reuters)

Abdullah, Ghani Lead in Afghan Election

Rassoul Trailing at Distant Third

Afghanistan’s Independent Election Commission (IEC) today released partial results of the country’s presidential election. Out of 10 percent of the votes tabulated so far, Abdullah Abdullah has 41.9% and Ashraf Ghani 37.6%, with Zalmay Rassoul trailing at a distant third with 9.8%.

If today’s trends hold, Abdullah and Ghani will face each other in the run-off election scheduled for late May.

Abdullah will be counting on Rassoul’s supporters to win in the second round, but that victory is not automatic if the percentage of his votes remains around 40%. Ghani will then count on Pashtun supporters of Rassoul to put him on top. This could be a very close election.

Meanwhile, President Hamid Karzai and his political machine lost today; Karzai’s favorite candidate, Zalmay Rassoul, which was also supported by Karzai’s brothers and his top lieutenants, could only pull less than 10% of the votes.

But the biggest losers were the Taliban. The Afghan people defied their threats and intimidations and in huge numbers, men and women alike, participated in a generally orderly electoral process to choose a successor to Karzai. This will be the first peaceful transition of power in Afghan history.

Photo credit: Zalmay Rassoul (l), Abdullah Abdullah (c) and Ashraf Ghani. (tagesschau.de)

Afghan Elections: Purple Fingers of Defiance

Nearly 60% of eligible voters cast their ballots in today' presidential and municipal elections, despite the repeated threats by the Taliban. Afghans were choosing a successor to Karzai in what will be the first peaceful transition of power in country's history.

Photo credit: Twitter/#Afghanistan

Afghanistan: Election Day 2014

UPDATE: Voting in the landmark presidential election came to a close after an hour of extension on Saturday evening. Despite threats by the Taliban, no major security problems were reported in the country. 58% of eligible voters reportedly cast ballots. The high voter turnout beat everyone's expectations. This is a major victory for Afghan people. Now vote count begins.


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Polls are now open for the first democratic transition of power in Afghan history. The Afghans are defying Taliban threats, and rain and cold, and are heading to the polls in large numbers on the Election Day 2014.

Following are the leading candidates to replace Hamid Karzai.

• Zalmay Rassoul; Karzai’s foreign minister until he resigned to run for presidency. Rassoul is backed by Karzai and his political machine. But he also enjoys real support in southern Pashtun areas of Afghanistan.

• Abdullah Abdullah; Runner up in last presidential election, and the only Tajik running for president. Abdullah is expected to finish strong in Tajik and Hazara dominated areas.

• Ashraf Ghani; Former head of Transition Commission, paving the way to transfer of security from U.S.-led coalition to Afghans, is running a surprisingly very strong campaign. Because of his running mate, Gen. Dostum, he is expected to get the support of the Uzbek community. He also runs strong in Eastern Pashtun provinces.

• Rassoul Sayyaf; Along with his running mate Ismail Khan, this ticket represents the old Mujahedeens, the most credible team to fight the Taliban after U.S. and NATO withdrawal. Ismail Khan, the Lion of Herat, will get significant votes in the West. However, their ticket is not expected to make it to the second round.

If no candidates receive a majority of the votes on 5 April, the election will go to the second run between the top two vote getters, which is the likely scenario. In that case and in all likelihood, Abdullah will face Zalmay, barring a late surge in support for Ashraf Ghani. Ismail Khan is then expected to support Abdullah against either Zalmay or Ghani.  

Aside from Ismail Khan, Mazar Governor Ostad Atta and Gul Agha Sherzai, former governor of Nangahar and Kandahar and a candidate for president himself, are also expected to support Abdullah, which will give the only non-Pashtun candidate a real chance to become the next president.

Meanwhile, my Afghan friends tell me that although Abdullah is receiving support from Iran, he is upset that the Iranians are hedging their bets and are supporting all the other leading candidates!

All the four leading candidates discussed here have pledged to sign the Bilateral Security Agreement (BSA) with the United States, which would allow the U.S. to keep thousands of military advisors, trainers and support elements in the country after its drawdown by year’s end.

Photos: Voters in line to cast their votes in Kabul; 5 April 2014.
Top photo: Twitter/#AfghanElections/@HNajifizada
Bottom photo: The New York Times

Rouhani to Visit Afghanistan for Norouz Celebration

Afghan Presidential Election Overshadowing All Events

Iranian President Hassan Rouhani will visit Afghanistan on Thursday to participate in celebrations of Norouz, the Iranian New Year. Heads of state and senior officials of other countries that celebrate Norouz will also take part in the ceremonies in Kabul.  

Rouhani will arrive in Kabul a week before Afghans go to the polls to elect a new president and new parliament. Since the fall of the Taliban, Hamid Karzai has ruled the country continuously and at times erratically, and now has to relinquish power. The Iranians are believed to be supporting Abdullah Abdullah’s candidacy, although they maintain relations at varying degrees with other top contenders. 

Four candidates have emerged as leading the field, with the April 5 election expected to go to the second round between the top two vote getters. Zalmay Rassoul, the former foreign minister, is said to have the active support of Karzai and his circle of close advisors. Then there is the Mujahedeen ticket of Sayyaf and Ismail Khan, which offers the best chance for fighting the Taliban after the drawdown of U.S. forces at the end of the year.

Meanwhile, Abdullah lost a powerful supporter when Vice President Fahim passed away last week, but still is running a strong campaign, and could reach the second round because of the split in Pashtun votes, going to different candidates. And of course it's Ashraf Ghani, the eternal political advisor to Western officials visiting Kabul, who is also expected to finish strong.  

File photo: Kabul (excellentworlds.com)