Rafsanjani charters Mahan Air Airbus A306 to Mashhad

Ayatollah Hashemi Rafsanjani descending canopied passenger boarding stairs, upon his arrival at Mashhad - Shahid Hashemi Nejad Airport (MHD / OIMM).  Flight details listed below, sourced from Flightradar24.com:

Rafsanjani's chartered aircraft is Mahan Air Airbus A300B4-603, reg. EP-MNI (cn 408). The aircraft is 28.5 years old.

The current Chairman of Expediency Discernment Council is seen being received by officials including an Artesh brigadier general 2C.

Rafsanjani accompanied by Razavi Khorasan Province Governor Ali Reza Rashidiyan (to his right)

On 03AUG15 Ayatollah Hashemi Rafsanjani officially announced his intention to run for re-election to the Assembly of Experts in February 2016, prompting backlash from the more conservative establishment. [see HERE]

A political moderate, the former President of Iran supports the Rouhani administration and its signing of the JCPOA.

Photos: Islamic Republic News Agency

Yazdi Defeats Rafsanjani - Elected Chairman of Assembly of Experts

Devastating Defeat for Moderates - Impressive Victory for Hardliners

Iran’s hardliners today scored an impressive victory in the Assembly of Experts (AOE) by electing Ayatollah Mohammad Yazdi as its chairman. Yazdi handily defeated Ayatollah Hashemi Rafsanjani, the leader of the moderate faction, by a vote of 47 to 24, with two abstentions. AOE selects the country’s supreme leader.

Yazdi’s victory is a devastating defeat for the moderates, including Rafsanjani and the sitting president Hassan Rouhani and his team. It could also be an indication that the now-energized hardliners might try to block the expected nuclear agreement.

File photo: Ayatollah Mohammad Yazdi, the new chairman of the Assembly of Experts. (Tehran Times)

Mahdavi Kani Dies at 83

Chairman of Powerful Assembly of Experts

Ayatollah Mohammad Reza Mahdavi Kani, the chairman of Iran’s powerful Assembly of Experts, died today in Tehran. He was 83.

The Assembly of Expert is a body of 86 senior Shia clerics that chooses and can dismiss the supreme leader. Ayatollah Hashemi Rafsanjani was the Assembly’s chairman until 2011, when he was pushed out of the chairmanship by the hardliners because of his moderate policies. It was not clear if he would seek the post again.

The current supreme leader underwent prostate cancer surgery only weeks ago, making the role of the current Assembly in choosing a new supreme leader, or a council of supreme leadership, that much more important. The elections for the next Assembly will be held in early 2016.

File photo: Ayatollah Mohammad Reza Mahdavi Kani (AP)

Janati Warns of Moderates’ Takeover of Assembly of Experts and Majlis

Ahmad Janati, the powerful chairman of the Guardian Council, charged with supervising the elections, on Sunday warned that certain groups, presumably the moderates and reformists were after “capturing” the Assembly of Experts and the Majlis after succeeding in capturing the presidency.

“These days those who just captured the first bastion, are after capturing the Assembly of Experts, and later the Majlis, to implement their corrupt goals,” Janati said. (IRNA, 30 March)

By the first bastion, Janati was referring to the presidency which was “captured” by Hassan Rouhani who represented the moderate/reformist bloc in the 2013 presidential election.

“The election for the Assembly of Experts is very much tied to the foundation of the Islamic Republic… They (moderates/reformists) have dangerous plans. They now want to capture the Assembly of Experts because that's the only institution that can choose/change the (supreme) leader,” Jannati added. “They have lots of money and some are in the center of power today.”(IRNA, 30 March)

Here Janati was clearly referring to Ayatollah Hashemi Rafsanjani, the de facto leader of the moderate/reformist bloc.

Janati’s fears are clear: the moderates led by Rafsanjani and supported by the reformists will try to field numerous candidates in the next Assembly of Experts elections to win an outright majority, a first in the Islamic Republic. The Assembly has always been controlled by the right. By controlling the Assembly, the moderates will position themselves in par with Ayatollah Khamenei and his supporters, and politically will elevate the power of Rafsanjani as Khamenei’s co-equal. 

The Assembly last held its election in December 2006 for an eight-year term. The new elections are due in December 2014. The hard right is fearful that if a comprehensive nuclear agreement is reached by July, the moderates will parlay that success into a victory in the Assembly elections.

Janati was also fearful that if the moderate/reformist bloc wins the Assembly, they will position themselves to win the next Majlis elections as well. Those elections will be held in March 2016. By controlling the presidency, the Assembly of Experts and the Majlis, the moderate/reformist block would then be the actual governing body of the country for the first time in the history of the Islamic Republic.

File Photo: Ayatollah Mohammad Reza Mahdavi-Kani (C, top table) gives the opening speech during  Assembly of Experts' biannual meeting in Tehran, 6 March 2012. (Reuters)

Assembly of Experts Opens Session in Tehran

The 15th Session of Iran’s Assembly of Experts opened in Tehran today. Senior officials are expected to address the assembly during its two-day event on the state of nuclear talks and the country’s economy.

Assembly Chairman Ayatollah Mohammad-Reza Mahdavi Kani told the members that the nuclear negotiators will “protect Iran’s rights.” Iran’s senior negotiator and deputy foreign minister Abbas Araqchi will discuss the progress in nuclear talks later today.

“Iranian officials and the negotiating team are in the position of safeguarding the Iranian nation’s principles and rights, and they will not cross the red lines,” said Ayatollah Mahdavi Kani. (IRNA/Press TV, 4 March)

Minister of Economic Affairs and Finance Ali Tayyeb-Nia will address the Assembly on Wednesday amid growing concerns over persistent high inflations rate, which was reported last month by the Central Bank of Iran to be at 38.4 percent, and negative economic growth.

The Assembly of Expert is an all-cleric body that sits twice a year to review national issues. In choses the country’s supreme leader. The election for the new Assembly is set for the spring.

A coalition of moderates, led by current the president, Hassan Rouhani, and former presidents Rafsanjani and Khatami, is expected to field many candidates for the Assembly seats in order to pass some of them through the Guardian Council’s political vetting process, controlled by the hard right.

Capturing the Assembly after winning the presidential election last year will be a huge step for the moderates to establish themselves as the ruling coalition in the country. The election for a new Majlis is also due in 15 months.

File photo: The Assembly of Experts (IRNA)

Rafsanjani Loses Assembly Chairmanship

Former Iranian President Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani lost his position today as the head of the powerful Assembly of Experts, a clerical body charged with choosing or dismissing Iran's supreme leader. Facing certain defeat, Rafsanjani decided not to run for reelection to "avoid division," as he later explained. The Assembly then elected Ayatollah Mohammad Reza Mahdavi Kani as its new chairman. He received 63 votes in the 86-member assembly as the sole candidate for the post.

Rafsanjani’s loss is the latest indication that the regime is sidelining anyone remotely associated with the 2009 Green Movement. Their leaders, Mousavi and Karrubi, are under house arrest. Former reformist president Khatami is pushed out and now Rafsanjani has lost the powerful chairmanship of the assembly, the Islamic Republic’s version of the Vatican’s College of Cardinals.

Hardline Member of Majlis Mahmoud Ahmadi Biqash said Rafsanjani paid a price for not condemning the opposition leaders Mousavi and Karrubi.

"Today, Assembly of Expert members showed that they are pioneers in confronting enemies and seditionists and obeying the orders of the supreme leader," Biqash said [IRNA, 8 March].

Assembly of Experts to Meet in March

Iran’s Assembly of Expert, a deliberative body of 86 senior Shia clerics that is charged with electing the Supreme Leader of Iran and theoretically removing and supervising his activities, will hold its semi-annual session on 8 and 9 March.

The Assembly’s current chairman, Ayatollah Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, one of the most influential founders of the Islamic Republic and its former president, has come under fierce attack by the senior right wing politicians and the supporters of President Ahmadinejad for his tacit support of, or lack of opposition to, the leaders of the country’s reform movement. The state TV last week went as far as broadcasting a demonstration by pro-government supporters in which they were chanting “Death to Rafsanjani.”

There are speculations that the extreme right will be nominating one of the two senior clerics, Ayatollah Mohammad Reza Mahdavi Kani or Ayatollah Mohammad Taghi Mesbah Yazdi, to replace Rafsanjani during the March session. However it is thought that the Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei favors keeping Rafsanjani at his posts, the chairmanship of the Assembly as well as the Expediency Council, as a counterweight to the growing influence of Ahmadinejad and his backers.

Is Assembly of Experts Convening?

Reports from Qom, the seat of Iran’s senior Shia ayatollahs, indicate that at least half of the members of the Assembly of Experts, comprising of many of the senior clerics, are willing to convene a session of the Assembly in the light of recent developments in the country. The Assembly, headed by Ayatollah Hashemi Rafsanjani, has the constitutional power of naming the supreme leader.

It is widely believed in Qom that the recent “coup” against Mir Hossein Mousavi, the presumed winner of the disputed presidential election, was orchestrated by the office of the supreme leader, specifically by Khamenei’s son, Mojtaba. The members of Khamenei’s household and his private office have been concerned with the health of Ayatollah Khamenei, believe to suffer from lung cancer. The election of an independently-minded president like Mousavi would have diminished the power and influence of Khamenei’s office in naming a successor acceptable to them in the event of his death.

When Ayatollah Khomeini died twenty years ago, his office led by his son, Ahmad Khomeini, was kept out of the selection process for the new leader and after the ascension of Khamenei, Ahmad’s political standing went down rapidly. Mojtaba Khamenei did not wish to see a repeat of that experience. He wanted to control the selection process and even be named as successor himself. A power grab to transform the Islamic Republic into an Islamic Caliphate, with the new imams linked by blood to the deceased one, preferably their sons.

Mousavi in a letter distributed yesterday makes an important observation on the underlying reason for the way Khamenei’s office behaved after Mousavi emerged as the winner: “The issue was not centered around the election itself, but was centered around institutionalizing a new system of government.”

The reports that at least half the members of the Assembly of Experts are willing to convene an extraordinary session of the Assembly indicates that many senior clerics are uneasy with the way Khamenei’s office had intervened in the election process. They are also concerned with the future of the system and might want to make changes to the office of supreme leader and the leader selection process to prevent a power grab by the circle of relatives and advisers around Khamanei.

Khamenei Approves Election Results – Alternatives Open to Mousavi Supporters

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei today once again approved the presidential election results.

“The 10th presidential election was an epic and ominous event,” Khamenei said on Sunday. “The wise and vigilant Iranian people showed they are still committed to the path of the architect of the Islamic Revolution the late Imam Khomeini,” Khamenei added [IRNA, 14 June 2009].

Khamenei’s approval came ahead of the Guardian Council’s 10-day deadline to certify the results, practically assuring that the Council would reject Mousavi’s appeal to annul the election.

The only legal course available to Mousavi and his supporters, if and when the Guardian Council rejects his appeal as expected, is the intervention of the Assembly of Experts. The Assembly, comprised of 86 leading Shia jurisprudence experts, has the constitutional power to select, supervise and dismiss the supreme leader.

The supervision and dismissal clauses have never been used by the Assembly, and it is considered very unlikely that the Assembly would now use its constitutional power to force the supreme leader to nullify the election results. What makes it intriguing, however, is the fact that Ayatollah Hashemi Rafsanjani was elected last year as the Assembly’s chairman and has strong support within the 86-person assembly, all clerics like himself. Rafsanjani has emerged as the most powerful opponent of Ahmadinejad and a strong supporter of Mousavi.

In his now famous open letter to Khamenei last week, he warned Khamenei on his responsibility to ensure a fair election. Some of us saw the reference as a veiled threat that the assembly can and might exercise its rights to “supervise” the leader and his decisions.

The Assembly of Experts exerting its power to shape the events in the next few weeks seems to be the only hope left for Mousavi supporters, an unlikely outcome, but possible considering the fast-paced events in the past 48 hours in Iran.

Khamenei and the Assembly of Experts Elections

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Islamic Republic’s Supreme Leader, warned the Iranian media not to cover issues related to Tuesday’s elections in the Assembly of Experts and Rafsanjan’s victory over Jannati. The unusual and extremely blunt warning came during Khamenei’s meeting with the members of the Assembly of Experts last Thursday (Baztab).

The moderate and reformist newspapers carried large pictures of Rafsanjani in their coverage of the elections and generally interpreted the result as a victory of the moderates over fundamentalist supporters of President Ahmadinejad. The Supreme Leader called these papers “local media with bad manners.” Khamenie accused them of repeating the enemy’s propaganda. Iran analysts now wonder if having a “bad manner” is an offense in Iran, what the punishment is, does it also cover political figures, and how bad should one’s manner be to get into trouble.

Rafsanjani now heads the Assembly of Experts and the Expediency Council. Ahmadinejad is under attack for his miserable economic policies and the growing international isolation of Iran, and the cash flow from the high oil prices can not resolve all the problems. Hence Khamenei’s worries: a growing influence of Rafsanjani and the moderates and an ending to fundamentalists’ monopoly of power. Khamenei must believe that fundamentalists' problem if not covered by the press would disappear.

Rafsanjani 1 – Ahmadinejad 0; Two Matches Left

The Assembly of Experts in Session. Tehran, 4 September 2007. (Mehr News)

Former president Hashemi Rafsanjani was chosen to head the powerful and secretive clerical body that has responsibility over the country's supreme leader. Rafsanjani received 41 votes to become the new speaker of the assembly of experts. His opponent received 34 votes. The assembly has 85 current members. Ten ayatollahs must have been either absent or not participating in the vote. The assembly of experts chooses the supreme leader and theoretically supervises his work and can remove him from power.

The elections season began early in Iran. Ayatollah Meshkini who headed the all-powerful and secretive Assembly of Experts throughout the history of the Islamic Republic passed away in July and the ruling senior clerics were forced to make an unscheduled selection between the main warring factions in today’s Iran: moderate and reformist in one camp and the radical fundamentalists in another.

The traditional conservatives, the third camp once enjoying unlimited power in the country, but nowadays reduced to a club of aging, albeit influential, ayatollahs had to act as the kingmakers. The Assembly of Experts’ members are senior clerics with an average age higher than the number of ayatollahs eligible to vote in the Assembly: 85. They were faced with a real selection: Hashemi Rafsanjani, the maverick survivor of the Iranian politics, who these days has become a champion of the moderates and the reformists, and Jenatti, thrown into the ring at the eleventh hour after the radical fundamentalists realized that their original candidate, Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi, the spiritual guru of President Ahmadinejad, would not get the support of the assembly.

41 of the ayatollahs supported Rafsanjani, 35 supported Jenatti. In the larger scheme of things, the result was immediately translated to a victory for the moderates and reformists, headed by Rafsanjani, and a defeat for radical fundamentalists headed by Ahmadinejad: Rafsanjani 1 – Ahmadinejad 0. Two important matches, however, are yet to be played: the March 2008 parliamentary elections and the May 2009 presidential elections.

The two camps will be at war contesting both. The Assembly of Experts victory should not be generalized as a sure sign of victory for the moderates in those upcoming elections. The assembly was loaded with ayatollahs whose very secure positions in the Iranian society combined with their very advanced age scares them of the politics of the radical fundamentalists constantly after creating tensions, conflicts and wars. These ayatollahs want to be left alone to run their own beits, collect millions of dollars every year from the Shia fateful and the Islamic Republic institutions, and they are in no mood to rock the boat.

The general population voting in the two upcoming elections is different. Iran’s growing isolation in the world arena and the worsening economic situation, partly caused by the country’s isolation, should bode well for the opposition and should change the composition of the Majlis and the occupant of the Marmar Palace, formerly the shah’s and now the seat of the Iranian presidency. The government and its radical supporters, however, control the cash flow from the considerable rise in the country’s oil exports. Their free-wheeling spending might make a 20% inflation rate even worst, but might still buy lots of votes.

The struggle for the control of Iran’s government in the next twenty months has just begun.

News from Iran

The worsening US-Iran relations dominated the Iranian media coverage. President Bush launched his starkest attack yet on the Islamic Republic, accusing it of threatening to place the Middle East under the shadow of a nuclear holocaust. Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said that his “mathematical calculations” has convinced him that it would be impossible for the US to attack Iran; but if attacked Iran will retaliate on a massive scale.

Ahmadinejad also reiterated Iran’s commitment to its uranium enrichment program and revealed that Iran already operated more than 3,000 centrifuges, directly contracting IAEA chief who had said earlier that the Iranian leadership has slowed down its enrichment program to gain politically in the international community.

On domestic front, Ayatollah Hashemi Rafsanjani was chosen to head the all-powerful Assembly of Experts after an all-out effort by the radical fundamentalist supporters of Ahmadinajad could not convince the 86 senior cleric members of the assembly to elect another ayatollah. The political infighting within the Islamic Republic reached its height when Ahmadinejad accused a score of moderate and reformist former officials of treachery and passing up nuclear secrets to foreign powers.

US-Iran Relations

· President Bush launched one of his strongest attacks against the Islamic Republic, accusing it of threatening to place the Middle East under the shadow of a nuclear holocaust; President Bush said he has authorized US military commanders in Iraq to confront Iran’s “murderous activities.”
· Maj. Gen. Yahya Rahim Safavi, who commanded the Islamic Revolution Guards Corp. (IRGC) until last week, warned that a US attack on Iran would unleash a much larger response from the Iranian that expected; Gen. Safavi said Iran would attack US and Israeli positions and would stop the flow of oil in the Straits of Hormuz.
· Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said that his “mathematical calculations” has convinced him that it would be impossible for the US to attack Iran; Ahmadinejad told a group of students that his training as an engineer enabled him to conduct mathematical calculus and analysis; Ahmadinejad also mentioned his belief in God as his second source of analysis; God said those who move on the correct path will win, Ahmadinejad emphasized.
· Eight Iranian officials, including two diplomats, who were detained by US troops in Baghdad, were released a day later; The Iranians were picked up at their hotel, blindfolded and handcuffed and taken into custody for questioning.

Major Domestic Storylines

· Ayatollah Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani today was chosen by the 86 senior cleric members of the Assembly of Experts to head the powerful body; Rafsanjani, 73, replaces Ali Mehkini who passed away in July; he defeated Ayatollah Ahmad Janatti, the candidate favored by the fundamentalists.
· President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad accused his opponents within the regime of “treachery” for providing the latest news and information on the country’s nuclear program to the Westerners; Ahmadinejad said that as many as eight to ten people might be involved in this treachery.
· The Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenie today removed Maj. Gen. Yahya Safavi from his powerful post as the Commander of Islamic Revolution Guards Corp. (IRGC); the new IRGC commander is Brig. Gen. Mohammad Ali Aziz Jafari; Gen. Jafari was most recently the director of IRGC’s Center for Strategic Studies; previously he commanded IRGC ground forces.
· Haleh Esfandiari, the 67-year old Iranian-American academic who was held at Evin prison for nearly four months and was freed on bail on 21 August, was allowed to leave the country; she arrived in Austria to be reunited with her husband on her way home; latest news indicate that radio farad journalist Nazee Azima is also given her passport and is expected to leave Iran shortly; Kian Tajbakhsh, the other Iranian-American academic in detention reportedly will be released within the next few days; there is no news on the fate of Ali shakeri, the last Iranian-American who has also been detained.

Iran Nuclear Program

· IAEA Chief Mohammad ElBaradei warned Iran of its “last chance” to end the nuclear standoff, by being candid on all aspects of its nuclear program; Iran and IAEA have agreed on a timetable for Iran to clear up outstanding questions on its nuclear activities; IAEA chief said that this is indeed a critical moment for candor.
· President Ahmadinejad announced that Iran already has 3,000 uranium enriching centrifuges in operation at Natanz; the statement contradicted an assessment by IAEA Chief Mohammad ElBaradei that Iran has slowed down its enrichment program; Ahmadinejad also said that Iran is brining on line one new cascade (164 centrifuges) every week; the Iranian president has declared Iran’s nuclear case closed.
· Iranian President Ahmadinejad lashed at the warning of French President Nicolas Sarkozy that Iran risked being bombed over its nuclear program saying Sarkozy was still “inexperienced.”
· Iran’s envoy to IAEA, Ali Asghar Soltanieh, said IAEA acted with “professionalism” in setting a timetable for Iran to resolve all previously-unsettled issues regarding the country’s nuclear program; the new timetable agreement between Iran and IAEA is expected to delay any new round of sanctions against Iran at the UN for at least few months.
· Iran announced that it may hire alternative builders to finish its first nuclear power plant at Bushehr if Russia was not willing to complete the project; a Russian contractor had been working on Bushehr project but had suspended its activities over disputes with Iran.

Regional Storylines

· Iranian President Ahmadinejad said a huge power vacuum will be created in Iraq when the US forces leave the country; he said Iran was prepared to fill the gap.
· The influential editor of Keyhan, the conservative Tehran daily officially part of the office of the Supreme Leader, today in an editorial reiterated his views that Bahrain is an integral part of Iran; Hossein Shariatmadari challenged Bahraini leaders to accept a referendum on the issue in the island nation; Shariatmadari claims that the scheduled UN popular referendum in 1971 on the subject of Bahraini independence from Iran was never carried out and instead a group of hand-picked elders close to the current royal family chose independence.
· President Ahmadinejad accused the US of interfering in Iraq’s internal affairs; the Iranian president said any US effort to topple Al Maliki’s government will fail.
· Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesman Mohammad Ali Hosseini said a large amount of weapons are being smuggled into Iran via Iraq; Hosseini said that terrorists and smugglers take advantage of the situation in Iraq and carry on with their sabotage activities.
· UAE put in place re-export maritime laws to prevent foreign companies exporting to Iran electronic components and devices used in manufacturing explosive devices; US had exerted pressure on UAE government to institute the ban; US has said that these devices are later used to attack US and coalition forces in Iraq and Afghanistan; the preferred venue for re-export to Iran has been the port of Dubai.
· Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), the Kurdish faction headed by Iraqi president Jalal Talabani, is reporting today that Iran has resumed heavy shelling of Iraqi Kurd areas near Iranian borders; Iran contends that the presence in the area of Kurdistan Free Life Party (PJAK), an Iranian Kurdish opposition group, is forcing it to attack the villages in Iraq Kurdistan region; the Kurdish Parliament condemned the shelling and called for an immediate ceasefire.

Rafsanjani is Victor; Infighting Heats Up!

Ayatollah Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani today was chosen by the 86 senior cleric members of the Assembly of Experts to head the powerful and secretive body.

Rafsanjani, 73, replaces Ali Mehkini who passed away in July. He defeated Ayatollah Ahmad Janatti, the candidate favored by radical fundamentalists.

The fundamentalists originally wanted to have Ayatollah Mesbah Yazdi to replace Meshkini. In anticipation of Rafsanjani’s candidacy, they launched an all-out attack on his character in the past couple of weeks. The latest was accusations that Rafsanjani had made up a quote by the late Ayatollah Khomeini to justify his moderate stand on relations with the US. Just in the past few days, they settled on Janatti as having a better chance to stop Rafsanjani. The final tally in today’s selection was kept secret.

At the end the majority of traditionally conservative ayatollahs who make up the bulk of the membership in the assembly sided with Rafsanjani. The fundamentalists’ radical foreign policies which has brought the country to the verge of an armed conflict do not bode well with the conservative clerics who do not wish their secure positions at old age be threatened by conflicts and wars.

The defeat by the fundamentalists today, however, is not the end of the infighting over the course Iran needs to follow during these very sensitive times. The battle for Majlis, with its elections coming up in March, is taking shape.

President Ahmadinejad is already accusing eight to ten of his opponents in the moderate and reformist camp as traitors who have given away Iran’s nuclear secrets to the foreigners. Even with the Machiavellian state of political affairs prevalent in the Islamic Republic, this is considered crossing of a red line, probably beyond repair.

Emerging Picture of a Regime in Disarray

Internal issues in Iran have shifted government and public attention away from foreign policy and nuclear issues to divisive internal power politics and such issues as the deteriorating economy, the housing crisis, gas rationing, press crackdown, health insurance disorganization, stock exchange predicament and the like. This summer is indeed proving to be a hot one for Iran; not for the often-talked-about foreign military attacks on the country, but because of an emerging picture of a regime in disarray.

For the regime, the death of Ayatollah Meshkini could not be more untimely. The internal power struggle that was to come to a head during the elections for Majlis next March now has to play itself in less than a month in a battle between two influential ayatollahs, Hashemi Rafsanjani and Mesbah Yazdi. One of them will replace the deceased speaker of the Assembly of Expert during the assembly’s meeting scheduled for 4-6 September.

Ahmadinejad’s government and the fundamentalists are pushing Mesbah’s candidacy. Their plan is clear: they have the presidency; they have the current Majlis; they are preparing the groundwork for Guardian Council’s disqualification of prominent moderate candidates for the next Majlis; and now they want Meshkini’s seat to exert maximum pressure on the middle-of-the-road clerics to join their bandwagon. The fundamentalists are going for an all-out power grab.

The continued detention of the Iranian-Americans is a move by the government to broadcast further “confessions” linking high-ranking former officials in Khatami and Rafsanjani administrations and conservatives such as Mohsen Rezaie, who may have attended many international conferences in the past, to foreign organizations including intelligence services; and hence disqualifying them from running for the 8th Majlis or in the 2009 presidential elections.

Hashemi, Karroubi, Khatami and Rezaie need to make a stand now or to loose their influence and possibly their reputation.

The economic woes are adding to the political instability in the country. Ahmadinejad not only did not bring oil revenues to people’s dinner tables as promised, but during his two-year leadership the cost of housing kept skyrocketing, the gasoline was rationed, inflation rate passed 20% mark, and unemployment, especially among the youths, reached alarming levels.

On international scene, Ahmahinejad's policies helped isolate Iran to a dangerous level. Major financial institutions are cutting ties with Iran and the country is facing severe sanctions through the UN and outside of it.

The rise in oil prices to historical highs has provided the government the cash needed to sustain its programs. Behind the veneer created by this cash flow, however, are the bitter realties of double digit inflation and unemployment as well as the increasing isolation of the country. The isolation, directly helped by Ahmadinejad’s diatribes and policies, is preventing major investments in the country and in the very oil industry which has been the government’s cash cow, presenting a real possibility that Iran would run out of oil exports in less than a decade.

A country in crisis needs a government able to bring together its people. Instead, the past two years of Ahmadinejad’s administration have become a period of government’s all-out war on free press and the journalists, on students, on women, on workers and the unions, on youths, and on Iranians abroad. Ahmadinejad's two-year reign has been a disaster for Iran.

Mesbah Yazdi to Become Chairman of Assembly of Experts

Informed sources in Tehran say that Ayatollah Taqi Mesbah Yazdi is favored to become the next chairman of the Assembly of Experts. The potentially powerful post was vacated after the death of Ayatollah Ali Meshkini on 30 July. The 86-man clerical assembly will elect its new chairman at its next meeting scheduled for 4-6 September in Tehran (Mesbah's picture at top, Fars file photo).

Mesbah’s election will further tilt the balance of power towards the fundamentalists. Mesbah is the spiritual guru of President Ahmadinejad. Mesbah’s election will also mean a major defeat for Ayatollah Hashemi Rafsanjani, favored by the moderates to head the assembly.

The Assembly of Experts is empowered to choose and supervise the Supreme Leader. Under Meshkini, the Assembly all but gave up its constitutional role to supervise the activities of the Supreme Leader and his executive offices.

Mesbah Yazdi believes the supreme leader is chosen by God, presumably through the Assembly of Experts.