Food, Housing Prices Soar - SCI

The government’s Statistics Center of Iran (SCI) said food prices rose by an average of 35 percent in the past twelve months, with housing prices rising by 48 percent.

Ali Mohammad Ahmadi, a member of Majlis plans and budget committee, quoting the SCI numbers, said the most steep price increases were in foodstuff (bread, milk, cheese, eggs, fruits, red and white meat and dried fruit), housing, water and power, natural gas and health care. (Mehr News Agency, 21 August)

UPDATE: The Central Bank of Iran announced that inflation rate in the Iranian month of Tir (June/July) compared to the same period last year was at 27.06 percent. (ISNA, 21 August)

Inflation at 26.5%

Dollar Reaches 20,000 Rials (Again)

The government’s Statistics Center of Iran (SCI) in a report to the country’s Supreme Council for Labor published this week has put the current rate of inflation in the country at 26.5 percent. Using a basket of 359 goods, the SCI has measured price increases for the 12 months period ending in the last day of Bahman 1390 (22 February 2012). The Majlis Research Center, the parliament’s statistics center, has also estimated an inflation rate of over 30 percent for the current Iranian calendar year that ends on Tuesday 20 March.

Meanwhile, the rial-dollar exchange rate has hit 20,000 rials per dollar in open exchange markets this week. The development is a major setback for the government’s efforts to maintain a unitary exchange rate of 12,260 rials per dollar. The official rate was set in January, coupled with strong interventions by the country’s central bank, when dollar had passed the 20,000 mark in open markets.

Income and Life in Urban and Rural Iran

The government’s Statistics Center of Iran (SCI) today released its annual report on family life and income in the country [Mehr News Agency, 1 January].

• The average annual income for a family living in urban areas is 106 million rials, equivalent to $6,666 in today’s market currency rate.
• The average annual income for a family living in rural areas is 59 million rials, or $3,711.
• The average annual expense for urban households is 113.8 million rials, or $7,168. Meaning the families in the cities spend 8% more than their income. 23% of urban household expenses are for food, and 33% for housing. 24% of urban households rent or lease their houses and apartments.
• 33% of urban households earn their income through wages and salaries, 18% through their small businesses, and an unexplained 49% of urban households list their income source as “other.”
• 91% of urban households use natural gas for heating and cooking, 88% have mobile phones, and 37% have automobile.
• In rural areas, the average annual household expenses are 68.5 million rials, or $4,300. Meaning an average rural household’s expenditure some 16% more than its income. 34% of rural households are engaged in farming, 33% earn their income through wages and salaries, and 32% from other sources.

The figures indicate that the Iranians have more disposable income than ever before, and are enjoying the modern amenities of life, such as automobile and mobile phone. They are, however, spending more than their income, probably as a result of rising inflation, with no savings.

49% of the household income in urban areas, and 32% in rural areas, are not from wages or salaries or small businesses or farming, unusually high numbers that need further explanations. The size of an average household was not reported.

Rising Inflation in Iran

Ahmad Tavakoli, the influential member of Majlis and the chairman of the Iranian parliament’s research center, said in Tehran that the country’s rate of inflation has reached 27 percent.

“According to Statistics Center of Iran (SCI)’s Price Index, the annual rate of inflation for the period ending in Iranian calendar month of Mordad (21 August) reached 27 percent,” Tavakoli said [Alef, 9 October].

The SCI, the government’s statistics and census organization, had announced last month that the annual rate of inflation for the period ending 21 July was at 19.6 percent. The jump of more than seven percent in annual rate of inflation in just one month is very significant and explains the anecdotal evidence of rapidly rising prices, such as the sharp rise in the price of eggs in the recent days.

The SCI’s new inflation rate, as announced by Tavakoli, contradicts an announcement made yesterday by the minister of finance and economy, Shamsodin Hosseini, who serves as the government’s economic spokesman, that the annual inflation rate stood at “around 17 percent.”

“According to the latest statistics, the inflation rate is around 17 percent… which is normal considering the rise in energy and food prices and the global rate of inflation,” Hosseini said [Fras News Agency, 9 October].

The SCI, however, is theoritically the country’s sole authority to calculate and publish the official rates of inflation and economic growth.

The latest announcements on inflation also refute an IMF prediction last August that Iran’s annual rate of inflation would be at 12.4 percent.

Iran's Official Inflation Rate: 19.6%

Statistics Center of Iran (SCI), the government’s statistics and census organization, reported today that the annual inflation rate in Iran for the period ending in Iranian calendar month of Tir (21 July) hit 19.6 percent [Fars News Agency, 18 August]. On Monday, the Central Bank of Iran had reported that the annual inflation rate had risen to 16.3 percent.

SCI Director General Mousalreza Servati told Fars News that the country’s fifth development plan, the current five-year economic plan, has authorized SCI as the sole authority for official statistics and the Central Bank should not have published its inflation report on Monday. The 19.6 percent rate is then the official rate of inflation in the country.

The inflation rate announced by SCI today is in sharp contrast with the latest IMF economic report on Iran, published earlier this month, that had put the rate at 12.4 percent. The huge difference in inflation rates is expected to undermine the accuracy of the entire IMF report.

SCI also announced that it will soon publish the GDP growth rate for 1389, the latest Iranian calendar year, but said it expected it to be around the same rate as the previous year, 1388. The problem is the government has not yet published 1388 growth rate, but the governor of the Central Bank has previously talked about a 3.5 percent growth rate for that year.