Iran delegation at MAKS-2015 air show in Moscow

Iranian attendees of the MAKS-2015 air show held at Zhukovsky Airfield, on 25AUG15 in the Moscow Region. What follows are photos of interest to embedded IRNA photographer:

9M82M3 and 9M83M3 missile display, included in exhibit of Almaz-Antey S-300VM "Antey-2500" (NATO: SA-23 Gladiator\Giant) Transportable SAM system.

Of interest are reports Iranian officials attending MAKS-2015 are intent on signing a deal for delivery of a S-300 series type system.  Note depicted system painted in desert tan, believed to be scheme applied to systems that entered service in Egypt in November 2014.

Tactical Missiles Corporation BAL-E Coastal Missile System with Kh-35E (3M-24E) anti-ship missile

Mil Mi-28N "Night Hunter" (NATO: Havoc) all-weather, day-night, military tandem, two-seat anti-armor attack helicopter

Kamov Ka-52K (NATO: Hokum B) naval attack helicopter prototype, intended for now cancelled delivery of Mistral-class landing helicopter dock (LHD) vessels.

Russian Air Force Mil Mi-8AMTS Terminator, RF-91418 / "62 Yellow" (cn AMTS00643136605U)

Left: KBP Instrument Design Bureau Pantsir-S1 (NATO: SA-22 Greyhound) combined short to medium range surface-to-air missile and anti-aircraft artillery weapon system. (note desert tan scheme)

Right: KBP Instrument Design Bureau Kornet-EM multi-purpose anti tank guided missile system, mounted on GAZ Tigr 4x4, multipurpose, all-terrain infantry mobility vehicle. (note desert tan scheme)

Display of Russian manufactured unmanned aerial vehicles (UAV)

Russo-Indian (NPO Mashinostroeyenia / DRDO) short-range ramjet supersonic cruise missile, air-launched variant

Russian Air Force Mikoyan-Gurevichi MiG-29 SMT (9-17) (NATO: Fulcrum), "777 Blue" displayed with R-27 series air-to-air missiles and B-13L rocket launcher.

Foreground: Russian Air Force Sukhoi Su-34 (NATO: Fullback), "31 Red"

Background: Russian Air Force Sukhoi Su-25SM (NATO: Frogfoot), RF-95488 / "04 Red"

Russian Air Force Mikoyan-Gurevich MiG-31BM (NATO: Foxhound), "93 Blue" with “Guards” emblem and VVS ROSSII (“Russian Air Force”) markings.

Russian Air Force Beriev A-50U (NATO: Mainstay), RF-92957 / "47 Red" (cn 0043453577)

Foreground: Dexter Air Taxi Myasischev M-101T Gzhel, reg. RA-15111

Background: Aeroflot Airlines Tupolev Tu-144D (NATO: Charger), reg. CCCP-77115 (cn 09-1)

Mil Mi-38-2 transport helicopter 

Roscosmos Ilyushin Il-76MDK (NATO: Candid), RF-75353 (cn 1013495871)

 

Defying sanctions against the Russian Federation, attending MAKS-2015 is Airbus A350-900, reg. F-WXWB (cn 001)

Photos: Islamic Republic News Agency

Possible movement towards Russian S-300 delivery to Iran

IRI Defense Minister IRGC Brig. Gen. Dehghan on 18AUG15 at the National Defense Industry Day in Tehran

According to The Economic Times:

Iran will sign a contract with Russia next week to buy four S-300 surface-to-air missile systems, the Iranian defence minister said on Tuesday, bringing Tehran closer to acquiring an advanced air defence capability.

Russian state arms producer Almaz-Antey in June said it would supply Iran with a modernised version of the S-300, among the world's most capable air defence systems, once a commercial agreement was reached.

"The text of the contract is ready and our friends will go to Russia next week to sign the contract," Defence Minister Hossein Dehghan was quoted as saying by the Fars news agency.

According to Fars News Agency:

[O]n the delivery of the Russia-made S-300 surface-to-air missile defense system, [Iranian Defense Minister Dehghan} said that Tehran had asked for 3 battalions of S-300, while a fourth system has recently been added to the order.

According to Fox News:

Despite a ban on arms shipments to Iran under international sanctions, Russia appears willing to proceed with the sale of advanced S-300 surface-to-air missiles to the country -- in a development triggering objections from the Obama administration.

Russia, along with the U.S. and others, was a party to the recently struck Iran nuclear agreement, which keeps the arms embargo in place for five more years. A State Department official told Fox News this specific S-300 missile system is not technically prohibited under United Nations sanctions or the nuclear deal. But the department does not want the sale to proceed.

“We certainly object to it,” department spokesman John Kirby told reporters.

COMMENTARY: Iranian sources are reporting the S-300 issue was a prime topic of discussion during Foreign Minister Zarif's trip to Moscow earlier this week.

Delivery of such a weapon system would provide the Rouhani administration with a tangible advance in the field of defense, consequential to its successful nuclear negotiations. It may even be recognized  for its domestic political value by Iranian proponents of JCPOA, as serving to undercut or possibly placate critics of JCPOA among Iran's military and conservative establishment.

Should there actually be movement for this long-stalled arms transaction, it will be interesting to see which type of system is actually delivered to Iran.

Per a IHS Jane’s Defense Weekly report, dated 25JUN15:

Iran will "not necessarily" order the S-300VM Antey-2500 air defence system, Russia's Interfax-AVN news agency cited a "high-ranking source in military-technological co-operation" as saying on 23JUN15.

There was widespread presumption among Russian analysts that Iran would have to accept the S-300VM because the S-300PMU-1 that it originally ordered is no longer produced by Almaz-Antey.

S-300VM systems are currently being made for Egypt, which is a close ally of Saudi Arabia, Iran's main regional rival, so Tehran might consider it to have been compromised and consequently a less attractive option than systems from the very different S-300PMU series.

The Russian business newspaper Kommersant reported on 22 June that, after "some hesitation", Iran had decided to take the S-300VM. It added that the only other option for Iran was the S-400 Triumph system, but that would be significantly more expensive and would take longer to deliver as Almaz-Antey has a backlog of orders from the Russian armed forces and China.

This assertion appeared to be echoed by the senior source cited by Interfax-AVN on 23 June. "It would be practically impossible and economically inexpedient to supply systems in the form and under the conditions set out in the old contract," he said. "This is because, first and foremost, series production of these systems stopped a long time ago."

However, he added that the systems Iran would ultimately order "will not necessarily be Antey-2500 … other options are also being discussed". The source raised the possibility that Iran could get a more advanced version of the S-300PMU series than the one it originally ordered, saying Russia could modernise systems that have been retired by the Russian armed forces. "They would not be new systems, but ones that have been used by troops for some time [which would have to undergo] serious modernisation," he said.

A Russo-Iranian strategic axis?

File photo: Russian S-300 long-range SAM systems during a past parade rehearsal at Red Square
[AP Photo/Sergey Ponomarev]

A recap of significant Russo-Iranian developments that have flurried the 13APR15 news cycle:

According to Reuters:

The Kremlin said President Vladimir Putin signed a decree ending a self-imposed ban on delivering the S-300 anti-missile rocket system to Iran, removing a major irritant between the two after Moscow canceled a corresponding contract in 2010 under pressure from the West.

A senior government official said separately that Russia has started supplying grain, equipment and construction materials to Iran in exchange for crude oil under a barter deal.

According to Press TV:

Iran’s Defense Minister Brigadier General Hossein Dehqan said Russia’s decision to lift the ban indicates the political will of the two countries’ officials to improve cooperation in all fields.

According to YJC:

Iranian Defense Minister Brig. Gen. Hossein Dehghan received an official invitation from Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu to speak at the International Security Conference to be held in Moscow on April 16 and 17, 2015.

According to YJC:

IRIN Rear Admiral Ali Shamkhani met with Russia’s Secretary of the Security Council Nikolai Patrushev in Moscow. Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council referred to Iran-Russia collaboration efforts.

Shamkhani stated: "The principled policy of the two countries in enhancing regional cooperation and balancing the transferable capacities in the diverse political, economic and security spheres has had a decisive role in the management of security crises across the region."

M.K. Bhadrakumar take on these Russo-Iranian developments, from Asia Times Online:

The Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision today to sign the presidential decree to forthwith supply S-300 missiles to Iran and the reported commencement of the $20 billion oil-for-goods swap deal between Russia and Iran effectively signifies the end of the sanctions regime against Iran. Putin has “liberated” Iran from the curse of sanctions. The Kremlin de facto opened the floodgates for Iran’s integration as a full-fledged member of the international community.

[…]

Indeed, the ramifications of today’s development, signifying the coming into being of a Russo-Iranian strategic axis, are going to be profound on several theatres of international security in a wide arc stretching from Central Asia through the Caucasus and the Caspian to the Middle East proper. Simply put, the US is staring at a catastrophic setback in its regional policies on several fronts. Without doubt, Iran is a pivotal state and it is a game changer for Russian policies to have such a regional power on its side as a close ally.

Conceivably, Moscow and Beijing are coordinating their moves on Iran. The Chinese President Xi Jinping is due to pay a visit to Iran at an early date and Chinese officials had openly hinted that there could be some “dramatic” announcements during the visit.

For sure, Iran has taken a great leap forward toward induction into the Shanghai Cooperation Organization.

COMMENTARY: It has become increasingly evident that Iran is benefitting from tensions between the United States and Russia, over developments at Ukraine.

The Iran nuclear negotiating team at Lausanne displayed an unusual sense of confidence, going so far as to remain steadfast before an impending deadline. Perhaps this confidence was provided by Russian assurances. Flynt and Hillary Mann Leverett have described the Iranians as "not putting all their eggs in the American basket," with regards to nuclear negotiating.

In addition to today's announcement by the Kremlin that it is prepared to deliver the S-300 long-range SAM system to Iran (with some sources claiming an "upgraded variant"), Russia also announced its first export sale of the S-400 Triumf mobile SAM system to China.

Of special interest for 14APR15 will be whether or not Russia vetoes the impending UNSC resolution on the Yemen conflict; a resolution which effectively supports the Saudi-led coalition in the war against Ansarullah and Pro-Saleh forces. Amid the current flurry of diplomatic activity observed between Iran and Russia, were the Russians to veto the resolution it may follow what would appear to be Foreign Minister Zarif's successful lobbying effort last week in Pakistan, where the Pakistani parliament elected to remain neutral during the Yemen conflict.

Possible dimensions of Russo-Iranian defense discussion/agreement

By Mark Pyruz 

 

Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu and Iranian Defense Minister Hossein Dehghan signing defense agreement 20JAN15 in Tehran

There is considerable open source buzz concerning this week's meeting between the Iranian and Russian defense ministers in Tehran. Aviation writer Babak Taghvaee asserts the following:

- Two S-300PMU-2 batteries will be delivered to Iran
- Russian will overhaul and upgrade IRIAF's Mikoyan-Gurevich MiG-29s and Su-24s to SMT and M2 level respectively, in Tehran

Taghvaee further asserts the defense ministers discussed the followings:
- Russian assistance in overhauling Iranian Ilyushin Il-76 transport aircraft
- Procurement of 48 new Klimov RD-33 engines for IRIAF
- Procurement of 24 Sukhoi Su-30MK fighter aircraft
- Procurement of 100 BTR-80 armored personnel carriers
- Procurement of two Sukhoi Su-25UBKs and delivery of embargoed Sukhoi Su-39 CAS aircraft
- Provision of engines and ejection seats for the Iranian Kowsar 88 training jet via RSK MiG, as well as possible acquisition of Yak-130 for IRGC-ASF instead of the K-8s

COMMENTARY:
- It would surprise this writer to see the Russians deliver the S-300 to Iran at this late point in time. If accurate, either this is further posturing by the Russians vis-a-vis the United States in its dealings with the Ukraine crisis, or perhaps a red line has been crossed, with the Russians reacting with delivery.

- Iranian Ilyushin Il-76 transport aircraft have been logistical workhorses, for the Iran-led coalition against ISIL and Al-Qaida linked forces in the region. As such, in the list of Russo-Iranian discussion points, this would seem to offer the more likely possibility of acceptance.

- The IRIAF is indeed in need of Mikoyan-Gurevich MiG-29 and Sukhoi Su-24 upgrades as well as a/c systems replacements. Recent U.S.-led sanctions against Russia over the Ukraine crisis provide an economic incentive for Russia as a vendor, in suppling Iran with such defense hardware/service.

- It is the opinion of this writer that in terms of possibilities ,the procurement by Iran of the Sukhoi Su-30MK fighter aircraft represents a longshot. Again, Russian posturing may come in to play, while on the Iranian side economic conditions would seem to preclude such a purchase. However there is a definite need for Iran to purchase new combat aircraft.

- It makes sense for Iran to acquire BTR-80 APCs for border protection duties, as Babak Taghvaee asserts. Again, U.S.-led sanctions against Russia over the Ukraine crisis provide an economic incentive for Russia as a vendor, in supplying Iran with such defense hardware.

- At this point in time Su-25 related deliveries to Iran might be considered replacement combat aircraft, in the war against ISIL.

- Engines and ejection seats for the Iranian Kowsar 88 and any procurement of training jets (doubling as light attack aircraft)  would also appear subject to current, less favorable economic conditions. However, as in the case of discussion over a potential purchase of Sukhoi Su-30MK fighter aircraft, such a groundwork could eventually lead to an acceptable deal at a future date, where conditions are more favorable.