U.S. Two-Star General Named to Direct Work of Military Advisors in Iraq

The U.S. military named a two-star army general to head up the team of U.S. military advisors sent to Iraq to assess, advise and assist to Iraqi military in its fight against the ISIL-led insurgents. (McClatchy DC, 26 June)

Army Major General Dana Pittard, currently deputy commanding general of operations for the 3^rd Army, the army component of U.S. Central Command, will direct the work of the 300 military advisors being deployed to Iraq. Pittard will lead the newly activated “Joint Forces Land Component Command, Iraq.” About 180 of those advisors are now in Iraq, including 50 who arrived on Thursday, the Pentagon said.

File photo: Army Major General Dana Pittard (army.mil)

Baghdad's combat aircraft procurement efforts

Above: example of Sukhoi Su-30 type multirole combat aircraft in service with Indian Air Force

Media reports on 26JUN14 indicate attempts by the Maliki government in Baghdad to procure combat aircraft to be employed against the 2014 Northern Iraq offensive. This brief post will discuss these potential developments.

 According to the BBC:

Iraq's Prime Minister Nouri Maliki has told the BBC that he hopes jets from Russia and Belarus will turn the tide against rebels in the coming days.

"God willing within one week this force will be effective and will destroy the terrorists' dens," he said.

COMMENTARY: Iraqi PM Nouri Maliki has on a number of recent occasions publicly identified a lack of capable, fixed-wing combat aviation as a cause for ISF difficulties on the battlefield, as well as declaring the employment of U.S. airpower conditional on his removal from office. As such, public statements by officials in Baghdad related to potential airstrikes should be viewed within the context of political posturing inherent with the forming of Iraq's next government at a time of crisis.

He said that the process of buying US jets had been "long-winded" and that the militants' advance could have been avoided if air cover had been in place.

"I'll be frank and say that we were deluded when we signed the contract [with the US]," Mr Maliki said.

"We should have sought to buy other jet fighters like British, French and Russian to secure the air cover for our forces; if we had air cover we would have averted what had happened," he went on.

COMMENTARY: The Kurds had lobbied hard for Washington to deny fixed-wing combat aircraft such as the F-16 to Iraq, with the aim of denying a further empowerment of the Maliki government. Any delays by their lobbying effort paid off during the 2014 Northern Iraq offensive, with Baghdad powerless to prevent the Kurdish seizure of Kirkuk.

In addition to the Kurdish lobby efforts, Iraqi perception of delayed deliveries of American-made combat aircraft had been a source of friction made public many times in the past. Providing of sophisticated American weapons remains an effective source of leverage on nations where divergence of interests may affect relations.

According to Russian defense media source RIA:

Director of the Center for Analysis of World Arms Trade Igor Korotchenko suggested that Iraq has purchased six Russian Su-30K, which is being repaired in Belarus.

"Probably, it is about six Su-30K, which are available in Belarus 558 aircraft repair plant in Baranovichi," - said Korochenko RIA Novosti on Thursday.

He explained that it is part of a batch of 18 Russian Su-30K, which were returned after the operation in the Indian Air Force in accordance with the terms of the contract and passed on repair and restoration of the Belarus plant.

He suggested that in addition to these aircraft, Iraq could also be interested in the purchase of MiG-29 aircraft and attack helicopters Mi-24, already in operation or in Russia or Belarus.

COMMENTARY: Earlier in the week, there were rumors and reports that Iraq had requested combat aircraft that decades before escaped to Iran during the Iran-Iraq War. If accurate, this writer had interpreted this development in terms of Iran potentially providing military aircraft to Iraq in Iraqi markings, using Iranian air and ground crews. Such arrangements would in ways be similar, historically, to American aircraft using Republic of Vietnam markings in the Farm Gate operations, during America's early involvement in the Vietnam War.

It is assumed that should these Russian aircraft materialize in the time frame indicated by Iraq's PM, such foreign-operated arrangements appear likely.

American obervations of Iran's military during the Iraq crisis

American officials recently provided the New York Times with a number of observations on Iran's military disposition toward Iraq during the ongoing 2014 Northern Iraq Offensive. This brief post will discuss some of these observations.

According to the New York Times article by Michael R. Gordon and Eric Schmitt:

Iran is directing surveillance drones over Iraq from an airfield in Baghdad and is secretly supplying Iraq with tons of military equipment, supplies and other assistance, American officials said. Tehran has also deployed an intelligence unit there to intercept communications, the officials said.

The secret Iranian programs are part of a broader effort by Tehran to gather intelligence and help Prime Minister Nuri Kamal al-Maliki’s government in its struggle against Sunni militants with the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria.

Gen. Qassim Suleimani, the head of Iran’s paramilitary Quds Force, has visited Iraq at least twice to help Iraqi military advisers plot strategy. And Iran has deployed about a dozen other Quds Force officers to advise Iraqi commanders, and help mobilize more than 2,000 Shiite militiamen from southern Iraq, American officials said.

COMMENTARY: It can be said the current Syrian conflict, which the governments in Tehran, Damascus and Baghdad perceive as a linked conflagration, has provided the IRGC-QF as a valuable primer in its command, organizational and logistical approaches, as well as militia training efforts in assisting the Baghdad government.

Iranian transport planes have also been making two daily flights of military equipment and supplies to Baghdad — 70 tons per flight — for Iraqi security forces.

COMMENTARY: During the conflict in what the Iranians view as the Syrian theater of operations, logistical support flights have primarily been conducted through the use of Boeing 747 cargo aircraft and Ilyushin Il-76 multi-purpose four-engine strategic airlifters. Again, Iran's military air logistical support organization has been well served by its experiences in the Syrian conflict.

Iranian Boeing 747-2J9F, reg. EP-AJI (cn 21507/340) . This specific aircraft has been known to operate military logistical missions from Iran to Syria. Interestingly enough, this B747 appears to have been switched from a military serial to that of civilian registration for flights into Syria. There are also a number of Iranian operators of Boeing 747 type aircraft capable of running supplies to both Syria and Iraq.

IRGC-AF Ilyushin Il-76TD, reg. 15-2284 (cn 0033448393). Likewise, there are a number of Iranian operators of this type capable of running supplies to both Syria and Iraq.

The American and Iranian military moves are not coordinated, American officials said. Even though the United States and Iran both oppose the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, known as ISIS, they are still competing for influence in Iraq and are backing opposing sides in the civil war in Syria.

COMMENTARY: The very name of the terror group ISIS links the conflicts in Iraq and Syria.

There has been a competing interest in Iraq between the United States and Iran since the onset of OIF. While it may appear that certain cultural, historical and regional ties favor Iran in this competition, and while the urgency of the current crisis might appear to favor Iran with its sway over Shia militia groups, it must be reckoned now or in the future the essential force in providing a military solution to this conflict is the heavy application of United States tactical airpower. in a role very much similar but anticpated to be even more effective than the initial phase of OEF.

Iran has mounted a parallel effort, according to American officials. It has set up a special control center at Al Rashid airfield in Baghdad, and is flying its own small fleet of Ababil surveillance drones over Iraq, said one American official.

 

Ghods Ababil ("Swallow"), Iranian reconnaissance UAV proven as reliable workhorse in a number of regional conflicts

An Iranian signals intelligence unit has been deployed at the same airfield to intercept electronic communications between ISIS fighters and commanders, said a second American official, who also declined to be named because he was discussing classified information.

COMMENTARY: The Iranians possess a military electronics industry with a focus on SIGINT/COMINT. While not developed to the present extent, notable past successes include its application during the 2006 Lebanon War. Yet again, experiences in the current Syrian conflict serve Iran well for application during the 2014 Northern Iraq Offensive and presumed, future counter-offensive.

While Iran has not sent large numbers of troops into Iraq, as many as 10 divisions of Iranian military and Quds Force troops are massed on the border, ready to come to Mr. Maliki’s aid if the Iraqi capital is imperiled or Shiite shrines in cities like Samarra are seriously threatened, American officials say.

COMMENTARY:  To a certain extent, the repositioning of Iranian ground forces should be considered  a normal response to the level of threat that has emerged on its western border.

It should be remembered Iran massed armed forces on its eastern border in 1998, with as many as 70,000 troops positioned near Afghanistan in countering the emerging threat and provocation from Taliban forces. In the event, Iranian ground forces didn't engage in offensive operations. Instead of invasion, posturing was reckoned sufficient.

Iran's military has not been well rendered for application as a heavy, expeditionary fighting force. For years, defense priority has been given to weapons programs within a doctrine of deterrence, warding off would-be aggressors possessing superior stand-off stike forces. The American invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq prompted Iranian strategists to reorient their forces into countering an external military invasion and occupation. Subsequently, NEZAJA has been undertaking an organizational shift from division-sized units to brigades. The while, Iranian leadership has publicly admitted to a reduction in the defense budget, no doubt affected by sanctions. These identified factors and more have contributed toward Iran's selection of an economy of force doctrine being applied toward its intervention in the Syrian conflict. As such, notwithstanding a complete and utter failure of the Iraqi military situation in defending Baghdad, it may well be expected the Iranians will apply a similar level of economy of force in its intervention efforts for what they view as their Iraqi theater of operations.

“Iran is likely to be playing somewhat of an overarching command role within the central Iraqi military apparatus, with an emphasis on maintaining cohesiveness in Baghdad and the Shia south and managing the reconstitution of Shia militias,” said Charles Lister, a visiting fellow at the Brookings Doha Center in Qatar.

COMMENTARY: Among factors contributing towards Iran's leverage in Iraq is its influence upon Shia-Iraqi militias, preceding elements of which came to be as far back as the Iran-Iraq War, where Iraqi exiles and POWs provided the initial foundation for such (giving rise to a sense of Iran-Iraq War 2.0 for the current Iraqi crisis).  That said, like their NDF counterparts and compatriot Shia militia experiences in Syria, these Iraqi armed groups do not possess the likely potential as a war-winning force for Iraq (and Iran). More likely they represent a stabilizing force, providing a much more modest potential for stalemate, and with that prospect, attrition warfare.

Next Round of Nuclear Talks: Two-Week Marathon Session

Russian Ambassador Tells UN Security Council

Russian Ambassador to the UN Vitaly Churkin told the Security Council today that the next round of nuclear talks in Vienna, scheduled to start on 2 July, will be a two-week marathon session, running between 2-15 July. (Reuters, 25 June)

The unusually long period set aside for the negotiations between Iran and the P5+1 shows the determination of both parties to reach a deal before the current JPOA expires on 20 July. It is also an indication of serious differences still existing between the two sides.

Most major issues are apparently still unresolved. The scope of the enrichment program, including the number of centrifuges and the future of Fordo enrichment facility, tops an extensive list of differences, which also includes the future of Arak heavy-water reactor, the inspection regime of nuclear facilities, and the process of lifting of sanctions. Also some sort of compromise related to missile program probably needs to be worked out.

The two sides are far apart on the number of centrifuges and the scope of enrichment program. On other issues compromises could be reached easier. On sanctions, Iran could agree that they be lifted in few stages. On missiles, the solution could perhaps be found on the type of warheads the missiles could carry. But considering the long list of differences, the two sides will have to try their absolute best during the two weeks in Vienna to be able to strike the final and comprehensive deal by 15 July, and have their capitals officially verify the deal by the 20^th.

IqAAC & SyAAF airstrikes, U.S. ISR flights, weapons flow to and from Iraq

IqAAC and SyAAF limited airstrike capabilities employed against ISIL targets in Iraq:

Above: File photo of two Iraqi Army Aviation Command (IqAAC) Iraqi Mil Mi-17V-5 (Hip H) combat-transport helicopters.

On 24JUN14, IqAAC airstrikes near the Baiji oil refinery facility claimed ISIL losses of nineteen KIA.

Meanwhile, U.S. officials have publicly stated that Syrian Arab Air Force (SyAAF) jets have been striking western Anbar Province, On 22JUN14 logistic tagets at Al-Qa'im were hit by SyAAF ground-attack rocket and cannon fire. (The overland line of communication through Iraq into Sytia for government-supporting forces appears restricted by advancing ISIL/allied positions during the 2014 Northern Iraq Offensive.)

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U.S. military ISR flights over Iraqi airspace:

Above: file photo of USAF Northrop Grumman RQ-4 Global Hawk unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) surveillance aircraft.

According to PentagonPresSec RDML John Kirby, the U.S. military continues to fly between 30 to 35 "routine and regular" ISR (Intelligence, Surveillance and Reconnaissance) missions per day around Iraq.

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Examples of weapons flow to and from Iraq during the 2014 Northerm Iraq Offensive:

Photo taken a few days ago of reemerging Shia-Iraqi militia "Mahdi Army" or"Peace Brigades," with at least two militiamen seen here equipped with Iranian-manufactured G3-A3 battle rifles.

On the other side of the conflict, seen at Raqqa, Syria is ISIL prize of war consisting of captured Oshkosh MTVR Mk 23 cargo truck towing a M198 howitzer; equipment previously supplied to the Iraqi Army by the United States.

China’s Increase in Iran Oil Imports Push Exports to 1.3 Million bpd

China’s imports of Iranian crude in May rose 36 percent compared to last year, hitting a near record 750,000 barrels per day. China is Iran’s largest oil customer, and its growing imports has pushed the volume of Iran’s oil exports to an average of 1.3 million bpd in the first six months of the year, an increase over last year’s mark of 1 million bpd. (Reuters/Tehran Times, 24 June)

Top Chinese refiner Sinopec Corp has been buying more of Iranian crude, which is offered at cheaper prices than those of similar grades from Saudi Arabia, industry officials have told Reuters. The easing of sanctions environment has also played a role in the increases, Reuters noted.

File photo: Iran’s oil export terminal at Kharg Island (Getty Images)

Barzani Calls for Kurdish Independence

In CNN Exclusive Interview 

Kurdish President Massoud Barzani in an interview with CNN’s Christiane Amanpour on Monday gave his strongest-ever indication that Iraqi Kurdistan would see formal independence from the rest of Iraq. (Please see the video of the interview below)

“Iraq is obviously falling apart,” Barzani said. “And it’s obvious that the federal or central government has lost control over everything. Everything is collapsing – the army, the troops, the police.”

“We did not cause the collapse of Iraq. It is others who did. And we cannot remain hostages for the unknown.

“The time is here for the Kurdistan people to determine their future and the decision of the people is what we are going to uphold

“Now we are living [in] a new Iraq, which is different completely from the Iraq that we always knew, the Iraq that we lived in ten days or two weeks ago.”

“After the recent events in Iraq, it has been proved that the Kurdish people should seize the opportunity now – the Kurdistan people should now determine their future.

“I will ask him, ‘How long shall the Kurdish people remain like this?’ The Kurdish people is the one who is supposed to determine their destiny and no one else,” Barzani said.

Barzani also called on Maliki to step down.

“(The) situation has been very complicated. And the one who’s responsible for what happened must step down.”

Amanpour asked if Barzani meant Prime Minister al-Maliki.

“Of course. He is the general commander of the army. He builds the army on the ground of personal loyalty to him, not loyalty to the whole country. And he monopolizes authority and power. He led the military, and this is the result,” Barzani said.

The Peshmerga have recently taken control of Kirkuk, and this is what Barzani said on that issue.

“We never had any doubt at any time that Kirkuk is part of Kurdistan.

“For the last ten years, we have been waiting to have (the constitutional) article applied (to determine Kirkuk’s future), but we haven’t seen any seriousness from the central government. And since we have new developments in Iraq now, this is what brought about the new situation with Kirkuk coming back to Kurdistan.

“We haven’t done this referendum yet, but we will do and we will respect the opinion of the citizens even if they refuse to have Kurdistan as an independent state,” Barzani said.

Source: CNN.
Photo: Kurdish President Massoud Barzani during the interview with CNN's Christiane Amanpour. (AFP/Getty Images/CNN)
Video: YouTube

Statement of Iran aircraft being returned to Iraq, rumors of IRIAF ground attack training

 

Above: IRIAF Sukhoi Su-24MK of a type IqAF escaped to Iran during the Persian Gulf War

According to Middle East Monitor:

A spokesman for the Office of the Adjutant General of the Iraqi armed forces has said that his country has returned 130 military aircraft to Iraq, which were held in Iran for more than 20 years. General Qassim Atta explained in a televised press statement that the Iranian authorities have equipped the aircraft with "sophisticated weapons".

"The planes," said Atta, "will participate in the battles against ISIS to liberate the city of Mosul from its control."

Iraq transferred an undisclosed number of fighter and civilian jets to Iran just before the US-led coalition forces launched air strikes in 1991 following the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait.

Groups of Sunni Arabs, led by ISIS, control a number of Iraqi cities in the north, east and west of the country. Iraqi Prime Minister Nouri Al-Maliki has described those groups as "extremist terrorists". Sunni figures, however, claim that what is happening is a Sunni tribal revolt against the discriminatory policies pursued by the Shiite government of Al-Maliki.

Commentary: Rumors of late have have been swirling of Iraqi and Iranian defense officials during the past few days conducting talks in Baghdad, with Iraq requesting Iran provide close air support (CAS) missions in the war against ISIL/allies, and even that Iran return Iraqi combat aircraft flown to sancturary in Iran during the Persian Gulf War.

There are also indications that IRIAF aircraft have recently been engaging in observable, frequent  ground attack training missions, including assemblage of all available MiG-29 types at Tabriz / Shahid Fakouri TAB 2, practicing in the attack role with air-lauched munitions.

Additionally, there are rumors of IRIAF Su-24 MK attack aircraft of 72nd TFS making frequent training missions equiped with B series rocket pods firing S-8 type rockets, and dropping FAB type bombs. Primary onjective of training is said related to IRIAF exercise slated for September 2014, with secondary objective in readiness to counter potential ISIL incursion into Iranian territory.

It appears the Baghdad govenrment is signalling closer military ties with Iran given any apparent American reluctance for direct military intervention in the CAS role. That said, it must now be admiited that future reflagging of IRIAF combat aviation assets with IqAF markings engaging in combat missions over Iraq can no longer be entirely discounted.

ISIL Claims Full Control of Key Oil Refinery at Baiji

Crisis in Iraq

ISIL insurgents said today they have fully captured Iraq’s largest oil refinery at Baiji, BBC reported. The refinery had been under siege for 10 days, and Iraqi security forces had repulsed ISIL offensive several times during that period.

The fall of Baiji is a major blow to the government. The refinery complex supplies a third of the country’s refined fuel, and its capture will force gasoline rationing.

The government shut down the refinery on 16 June when the insurgents closed in on the main production units. It was not immediately clear if those units were damaged during the fight. But storage facilities caught fire and smoke could even be seen from the space. The restart of the refinery’s operation would give the rebels the ability to provide fuel to Mosul and other northern towns. The crude oil supplying the refinery comes from the oil fields in Kirkuk, now under Kurdish control.   

The fall of Baiji refinery complex, which also houses a major power station, comes after significant advances by ISIL over the weekend, when they captured all border crossings to Syria and Jordan, and seizing four towns in the north and west. Now ISIL is expected to advance down the Euphrates, with a vital dam near Haditha in imminent danger of falling to the insurgents.

UPDATE (24 June): The ISF says it sent reinforcements to Beiji refinery on Tuesday and its military aviation attacked ISIL positions. So as of 24 June, the government claims that the refinery is still contested, and not under full ISIL control. We should have a firmer situational awareness within a day or two.

Photo credit: Smoke rising from storage tanks at Baiji refinery. (Reuters/BBC)

Kerry in Baghdad

ISIL Offensive Continues

Secretary of State John Kerry arrived in Baghdad today, as ISIL-led insurgents continue their offensive. He will hold talks with Prime Minister Nouri al-Maliki, and top Sunni and Kurdish leaders in a bid to push for a power-sharing arrangement to maintain unity and stability in the country.

The U.S. is setting up two joint military operations centers with the Iraqis, sending new military supplies, and the first of 300 U.S. military advisors will also arrive in Iraq within days.

President Obama said again on Sunday that the U.S. will follow a focused and targeted strategy against the ISIL.

“What we can't do is think that we're just going to play whack-a-mole and send US troops occupying various countries wherever these organizations pop up. We're going to have to have a more focused, more targeted strategy,” Obama said.

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has expressed strong opposition to any U.S. military presence in Iraq. In a speech on Sunday, Khamenei said the conflict in Iraq was not a religious war, but a crisis manufactured by the U.S. to weaken Iraqi central government.

Meanwhile, ISIL seized three border crossings into Syria and Jordan and four nearby towns over the weekend. The last Iraqi army units also withdrew from Tal Afar and its airbase, and there were reports that the insurgents were close to controlling Baiji oil refinery, Iraq’s largest.

File photo: U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry (BBC)

Khamenei: Iraqi Conflict Not a Religious War - U.S. Manufactured

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said in Tehran on Sunday that he opposes U.S. intervention in Iraq, and strongly hinted that Iran will support Maliki for a third term as prime minister.

“We don't support any foreign interference in Iraq and we're strongly opposed to U.S. interference there,” Khamenei said. (IRNA, 22 June)

“The United States is dissatisfied with the result of elections in Iraq and they want to deprive the Iraqi people of their achievement of a democratic system, which they achieved without U.S. interference.

“What is happening in Iraq is not a war between Shiites and Sunnis. Arrogant powers want to use the remnants of Saddam’s regime and takfiri (ISIL) extremists to deprive Iraq of stability and tranquility,” he added. “The real fight is between those who want to bring back a U.S. presence and those who want Iraqi independence,” Khamenei said.

Commentary: The remarks by Khamenei are the latest manifestation of his attempt to recast the conflict in Iraq in terms of the West against the Iraqi nation, allowing the Iranian military to intervene in Iraq without being seen as entering a religious war against the Sunnis, and especially for the Quds Force not being seen as Shia mercenaries.

Notwithstanding Khamenei’s wishes, the reality on the ground is that the ISIL has taken advantage of the feeling of disenfranchisement among the Sunni population to get the support of other Sunni groups and putting itself in the leadership of an emerging social movement in the Sunni areas against the central government. The Sunnis will regard Iranian military intervention in Iraq as the entry of a Shia army into a religious war against the Sunnis. This is a trap for Iran, especially in the larger Persian Gulf/Levant region with an overwhelmingly Sunni population.

Photo credit: Ayatollah Ali Khamenei addressing Iraqi crisis. Tehran, 22 June 2014 (Mehr News Agency)

Tal Afar and Airbase Fall to ISIL

Kurdish news site Rudaw reported that last units of Iraqi army fighting in Tel Afar pilled out of the town on Sunday and entered the Kurdish-controlled areas further east. The fall of Tel Afar airbase marks the end of the last Iraqi resistance against ISIL in Nineveh after a fierce battle for more than a week.

“After nearly a week of fighting in Tel Afar airbase, eventually, Abu Walid, the commander of the Nineveh Operations, withdrew (from Tel Afar) and arrived at Shangal,” said Sarbast Bapiri, head of KDP in Shangal. “Abu Walid and the 10^th brigade (of IA 3rd Division), with 600 Iraqi troops and 60 military vehicles, handed themselves over to Peshmerga forces in Shangal,” Bapiri added. (Rudaw, 22 June)

In the last 24 hours, Tel Afar became the fourth Iraqi town to fall to ISIS militants, including Rawa, Ana and Husaybah in Anbar province, as well as the strategic border crossing of Qaim.

UPDATE: The Iraqi government's military spokesman confirmed the fall of Tel Afar, descrbing it as a "tactical withdrawal." (23 June)

Photo credit: Iraqi commander Abu Walid (center in uniform) meets Kurdish officials in Shangal after his troops pulled out of Tel Afar, Sunday 22 June 2014. (Rudaw)

Iran May Go Back to Former Nuclear Policies if Talks Fail - Zarif

Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif said today Iran may return to its previous nuclear policies if the talks with P5+1 fails to end in “proper results.”

“It is very likely that the talks will bear results, if the other party comes to the negotiations with serious will,” Zarif said.  However, if the sides cannot reach an agreement, Iran “could return to its former nuclear policies.” (IRNA/Xinhua, 22 June)

The world powers and Iran will meet again on 2 July  in Vienna for the next round of talks.