Archive

Sunday, March 4, 2012

Iran - Discrepancies in Government’s Data on Elections Turnout

64 Percent or 54 Percent?

Yesterday, in a press conference in Tehran, Iran’s Interior Minister Brig. Gen. Mustafa Mohammad Najjar told reporters that 26,472,760 citizens cast their votes in the nationwide elections for the Ninth Majlis. The minister’s remarks were widely distributed and also appeared on the Interior Ministry’s website. Two weeks ago, Gen. Najjar had officially announced the number of eligible voters nationwide at 48,288,799. Considering that the Interior Ministry is in charge of the elections in Iran, these figures are as official as they can get.

Now let’s see what the percentage of those voted is to those eligible to vote, or otherwise the turnout: 26,472,760/48,288,799= 54%.

The trouble is that the minister himself has calculated and announced the turnout to be at 64%, a figure widely quoted by the media, including by this lowly blogger. The government has also used the figure to declare a moral victory of sort over the opposition. But didn’t they just add 10% to the actual turnout?

In the elections in Tehran, there was also an odd development: the eligible voters reported were 2.5 million people less than the number for the Eight Majlis in 2008. Considering the rapid growth of the population in Tehran, this statistic does not seem correct. As a result, the Interior Minister’s report that 48% of eligible voters in Tehran turned out in the polling stations seems also to be inflated.

8 comments:

  1. Come on!
    You know this regime lies through its teeth just like we breath air.
    Dictatorships love using figures like 64% or their favorite 98.5%.
    They don't care about elections so they make one up and decide before hand who should win.Not that it makes any difference because the velayat is the decision maker and the people are his herd because they cannot decide for themselves.
    The people should shut up and put up or else be locked up tortured or executed that is what you call Islamic democracy which means freedom for the mullah and his henchmen to do what ever they want and oppress the people.
    Welcome to the Islamic fascist state of butchers and above all liars.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Nader, technically, you and I are eligible to vote, having voted in polling stations abroad, during presidential elections.

    But it's not possible for us to vote in parliamentary elections for a number of reasons.

    Perhaps this accounts for the discrepancy?

    Whatever the case, the lower figure is still 15% higher than that for midterm elections here on a good year in California.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Mark,

    This government has tried hard to show that the large turnout on Friday, as opposed to previous pre-Green movement election turnouts in Iran (and not in California), was the sign of the popularity of their policies and indeed their very legitimacy. This is the bar they set. But when the turnout reported by no less an authority than the minister of interior turns out to be a lie, then there is a serious problem.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Mark Pyruz

    Then leave California and go and live in Iran and experience the full democracy that shines out of our nation.
    It even slipped out of the interior ministers mouth that there was a 34%turn out then he quickly corrected himself and said 64%.
    In fact according to first hand information given to me from Iran there was a very low turn out with people being bused into chosen districts of cities to vote. With TV crews on stand by for propaganda broadcast to show our people how the nation "supports an Islamic Iran".

    ReplyDelete
  5. ALWAYS NEGATIVE !!!!!

    MR Uskowi with due respect, when will you learn to give the devil his dues!!YOU ARE PUTTING UP A CLAIM THAT NO OTHER MEDIA OUTLET HAS EVER ATTEMPTED, EVEN THE VIRULENT ONES IN CNN AND AL JAZEERA!!BELIEVE ME YOU DESERVE A MEDAL!!.

    ReplyDelete
  6. Hmmmm....Interesting:

    If ppl go out for green movement it is there own will...

    If ppl go out for this regime they are all paid...

    In Germany we say:
    You can not see the Forest, because of all the trees...

    ;-)

    ReplyDelete
  7. Dear B.M.A.,

    You are blaming the messenger, but what about the message? How do you like quoting a senior official in your blog as saying that the turnout was at 64%, only finding out, based on the numbers provided by the very same government official, that the turnout was indeed 10% lower? Let’s talk about the issue at hand, and not about me deserving a medal!

    ReplyDelete
  8. B.M.A

    What I would like to know is,what is your agenda?
    Because as an Iranian who lives in Iran and has family and friends that actually live in Iran and have first rate information that says everything contra to what you and the likes of you on Uskowi says about the situation and realities in Iran.I find your comments as well as others like you laughable as well as insulting to our intelligence.
    So the question is who are you trying to kid? Because your third rate misinformation as regards our country is both naive and pitiful at the same time.

    ReplyDelete