tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5169130203475264933.post7702431310351974452..comments2024-03-10T22:24:34.032-04:00Comments on Uskowi on Iran - اسکویی در باره ایران: To attack or not to attack Iran?! The Cons and the Pros affecting the war decisionNader Uskowihttp://www.blogger.com/profile/02808543185109048956noreply@blogger.comBlogger15125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5169130203475264933.post-39202089824866655862012-07-31T19:27:32.676-04:002012-07-31T19:27:32.676-04:00Thanks anon 5.19
I don't disagree that oil is...Thanks anon 5.19<br /><br />I don't disagree that oil is a central part of any US policy in the middle east. We only have to look at the difference between the us and Weston stance in Libya vs Syria in recent months. If Syria had as much oil as Libya, the west, including the US, would have military intervened by now.<br />As far as the Shiite/ Sunni issues, I hope you would agree that both Iran and Saudi Arabia are making policy decision based on sectarian consideration with total disregard to human rights, or right or wrong. A perfect example is the Saudi intervention in Bahrain to quell the Arab spring there, in contrast to the Iranian support of the Syrian regime despite it's total disregard to the Syrian peoples' lives as they go about their revolution.<br />.<br />I assume it would be hard to get you to agree that the Saudis are as sectarian as the Iranians in their regional policies; that is part of the reason this part of the discussion is very difficult to have.<br /><br />Thanks again for your comment.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15665812073292288344noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5169130203475264933.post-58100417089446149322012-07-31T17:19:19.829-04:002012-07-31T17:19:19.829-04:00USA involvement is about the threat of Iran's ...USA involvement is about the threat of Iran's WMD but mostly about oil in the ME. Iran's ultimate target is to overthrow the Saudi monarchy and to create a Shia dynasty in the whole ME (Iran, Iraq, Syria, Saudi Arabia, Yemen too). Iran has been meddling in Saudi Arabia by sending Rev. Guards to Yemen and infiltrating Saudi Arabia. The monarchy is concerned that its suppressed Shia population will uprise and USA is concerned about Iran controlling all the oil. And Israel, though rightfully looking out for its own interests, is the USA excuse to destroy Iranian weapons now.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5169130203475264933.post-73748195246809416352012-07-25T05:46:31.235-04:002012-07-25T05:46:31.235-04:00Thanks Mr. Fazeli 8:28
My answers to your question...Thanks Mr. Fazeli 8:28<br />My answers to your question will certainly be monitored by some agencies, but lets try to cure their minds...<br /><br />In regard to all your questions - there have been commenced a cooperation between security councils of Iran and RF at the end of the 2011 summer. Following statements from both sides, confirmed continuation of cooperation on military levels despite the cancelation of the S-300 contract. In the following months the sides exchanged frequent visits to their countries by security council reps. On the beginning of the 2012 year RF has established special real time monitoring command for the Middle East, which includes the chairman of RF security council, reps. of the president and key generals and security reps. responsible for a continueous updating contingency plans in that matter. As of today 11 russian naval vessels are entering Mediterranian Sea and Russia has planned the biggest military exercises in decade, which will take place this September. From this events there has been conclusion that Russia is working on such plans; of course they are secret and there are several scenarios (plans)which depends what will happen in Syria and which side will initiate conflict and when US will enter anticipated conflict. These plans are of course secret, but it is sure that RF is going to learn in real war conditions about western strategies and weaponry by assisting Iran in jamming and cyberwar countermeasures as well as with an early warning and protection or alternate power grids.These are examples of minimun russian involvement. There will be teams in places for a recovery of debris of downed airplanes and unexploded ammunition. RF still hopes that there will be some compromise and/or suspension (delay) of problems for a certain time. RF has already stated that in a face of conflict initiated by the West, it will have to take necessary steps... At present there are still significant number of russian specialist in Iran... <br /><br />Regarding # 1 and #2 - I assume that RF will advise Iran not to strike civillian population centers in Israel . However it will be meaningless if Israel causes civilian casualties in Iran first. Supreme leader Khamanei announced earlier that response to an aggression will be proportional; it means will be kind of "eye for eye". <br /><br />The minimum RF's involment will start from actions like i described earlier and of course there will be a call for a UN Sec. C. meeting to impose a truce.<br />Iran will not head any advices about not responding, however it may withold strikes on the western forces and closure of Str. of Hormuz until they join Israel's aggression or attack on Iran first.<br /> <br />There has been interesting suggesstion by iranian legislator to tax each barrel of oil instead (I believe)of closure of the strait. I wish to learn more about that and feasibility of that proposal.<br /><br />Re #3 RF by cooperation of both security councils, will share known information with Iran, about those activities of foreign special forces...<br />In case of West attack against Iran, RF will move and put some troops on the highest alert and assist in an initial phase of war - as described earlier.In a case of prolonged action, the RF will prepare a release of military equipment to Iran. Russian paratroopers may land in Bushehr area and other places planned with Iran in advance... <br /><br />Re # 4 - Possible street unrest in the streets of iranian cities may only be associated with a protest against the West or israeli aggression and in support of Iranian leadership... This support may even include famous names from Iranian opposition. In a war time conditions, any pro western expression might immediately be annihilated; before it even starts...<br /><br />To the best my knowledge, if it is true -Iranian opposition might have learned from facts of Ms. Neda S's tragedy and her handler behavior; - "12 years older boyfriend?"- Caspian, who "performed" interviews in Israel not long time after her tragedy...<br /><br />A-FAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5169130203475264933.post-8692410211544937412012-07-24T18:14:55.753-04:002012-07-24T18:14:55.753-04:00LOL hans!
You claimed the US dollar will collapse ...LOL hans!<br />You claimed the US dollar will collapse by July 1st and the worthless Iranian rial will be the main currency of choice.<br />So what went wrong genius?Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5169130203475264933.post-76168904589684076252012-07-24T10:52:27.751-04:002012-07-24T10:52:27.751-04:00There will be no attack on Iran, the schedule whic...There will be no attack on Iran, the schedule which the crazy Zionist were to follow was<br />Oct 2011 Syria was to have fallen,<br />June 2012 Iran attacked<br />Sep 2012 Venezuela, Nicaragua, Ecuador turn<br /><br />Things have not worked that's why the maniac rush to destroy Syria to try to get back to plan. I predict that this years hurricane season in the USA is going to be of catastrophic proportions they will be wholesale destruction of many cities and towns. Iran plays Chess while the Zionists play maniac poker. Stay calm Iran this Zionist project is on it's last vestiges.hanshttp://www.mailmetrash.comnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5169130203475264933.post-49938742869849685282012-07-24T08:28:38.309-04:002012-07-24T08:28:38.309-04:00Thanks anon 6.27.
I would be interested to know wh...Thanks anon 6.27.<br />I would be interested to know what you think the actual Russian response would be in any of the following stages of a potential attack:<br />1. Israeli strike <br />2. Iranian conterstrike and possible Hormuz closure<br />3. American strike, including special forces operations<br />4. Possible street unrest in Iran (supported, but not staged, by the west)<br /><br />Not to diminish the Russian role, but I thinks in this scenario, the only logical Russian reaction would be to advise the Iranians not to react to the israeli strike, just like sadam didn't react to a similar strike in the 1980s. In fact Sadam didn't even order an intercept of the Israeli airplanes on their way back to Israel.<br />Thanks again for the thoughtful comment.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15665812073292288344noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5169130203475264933.post-74274060480507732512012-07-24T06:27:40.899-04:002012-07-24T06:27:40.899-04:00Any regime change in Iranwill only be possible und...Any regime change in Iranwill only be possible under internal revolution or by a government installed by the West, due to a ground invasion by its troops.<br />The first possibility; in preliminary stages, was attempted in the 2009 and failed. There is no chance that that theoretical attempt could be repeated with stronger support from the iranian population after a war initiated by the West. <br /><br />The ground invasion is unrealistic because Iran is too big country and has strong, dedicated military and paramilitary forces with sufficient resources for a prolonged resistance.<br />Russia as a neighbour of Iran, cannot be idle in the light of any incursion by the western troops to control and install a symphatetic government to the western military policies... <br />Therefore, according to our comments and analyses the West should face more Cons against a possibility to initiate a war with Iran. However past and recent history shows irrationality of the western side's actions and policies inspired by the certain entity...<br />Analyst- friendAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5169130203475264933.post-41981480976492229112012-07-23T22:53:24.729-04:002012-07-23T22:53:24.729-04:00Thanks annon 10.43.Thanks annon 10.43.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15665812073292288344noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5169130203475264933.post-88630171392473040832012-07-23T22:43:58.412-04:002012-07-23T22:43:58.412-04:00fix typo
---". Iran would get the opportunit...fix typo<br /><br />---". Iran would get the opportunity to activate Iraqi shiite militias to destabilize Iraq, or even CEASE power by force..."----<br /><br /><br />SEIZE....I assume.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5169130203475264933.post-6914837418490601702012-07-23T14:55:02.361-04:002012-07-23T14:55:02.361-04:00@annon 1.14
I see your point about the potential l...@annon 1.14<br />I see your point about the potential loss of advanced weapons on the battle field but I don't know of any incident were Americans held back their most advanced weapons because of fear of secret military technology. The US develops weapons for use when needed, not for storage. I'm sure after years of having to deal with this issue, the US military already has remedies for such eventualities. If you remember, there were such instances in past more recent wars, such as the downed stealth bomber in serbia, or the multiple airplane shut down over Iraq.<br /><br />As far as the unity of Iranians against a potential attack, I would submit that since any attack would be directed towards select military installations and the regime itself, it would be a war like no other the Iranians have had, and as such it would be hard to predict how the nation as a whole would react. <br />If you happen to be against the regime, which I'm sure you are not, then you might consider a military attack to weaken the regime to be advantageous, theoretically speaking of course.<br />Thanks for the comment.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15665812073292288344noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5169130203475264933.post-48606265617812913422012-07-23T14:25:30.283-04:002012-07-23T14:25:30.283-04:00I agree that the Straights of Hormuz are not going...I agree that the Straights of Hormuz are not going to be closed for just a few weeks. No way. I think it will be at least 3-6 months, and oil could go to US$200.farmland investmentshttp://www.greenworldbvi.com/alternative-investments-options/agricultural-farmland/noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5169130203475264933.post-8481986219352977542012-07-23T13:14:46.339-04:002012-07-23T13:14:46.339-04:00In conjunction to Mr. Fazeli's views I would l...In conjunction to Mr. Fazeli's views I would like to add that Cons, for western side of an anticipated war should include possibilities that aggressors may loose technological and opperational secrets to countries such as Russia or China. For instance a loss of several modern airplanes such as f-15, F-16 or may be even B-2 as well as unexploded cruise missilles and other ordnance will compromise those technologies. Russia and China will have a good opportunites to learn about countermeasures against jamming, cyber and communication's warfare as well as other new offensive secrets of the West. The author Mr. Fazeli mmistakenly anticipates that unity and strenght of morale of the Iranian nation majority will be weakened by an aggression. From my knowledge of different social systems including american one,I believe that Iranian culture, system as well as a social fabric and values of overwhelming majority of Iranian population, exceed values of the western culture and its "fabricated -schizophrenic" unity. There may be also a possibility...... that Russia has a contingency plan to send their paratroopers (like it was in Pristina in Kosovo) to prevent an attempt to overrun Iran teritory by the western powers... <br /><br />Analyst-friendAnonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5169130203475264933.post-75913220516437676992012-07-23T11:51:48.862-04:002012-07-23T11:51:48.862-04:00The notion that the Straight go Hormuz wouldn'...The notion that the Straight go Hormuz wouldn't only be closed to navigation for a mere few weeks, is a dangerous gambit to bank on. Six months is a more realistic time-table.<br /><br />On a side note, Americans watching any number of U.S naval vessels sinking and burning for the first time since WWII on Fox News or CNN, will probably create an incredible backlash against Americans of Iranian descent, here in the United States.<br /><br />This article does not take into account the effects of U.S losses, which will most likely be heavy, at least by modern American standards.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5169130203475264933.post-5695190562722008832012-07-23T08:42:45.863-04:002012-07-23T08:42:45.863-04:00Thanks Mark.
The above peice was intended to analy...Thanks Mark.<br />The above peice was intended to analyze the possible scenarios under which a division for war might be raken, nothing more.<br />Even though I would agree that Iran would not fire the first missile on Israel, I don't think it can escape the responsibility for creating this crisis in the first place. I don't think the Iranian people will be as forgiving as you when they decide who to blame for the war.<br /><br />As far as the UN in concerned, we should look at what it did when Israel destroyed the Iraqi nuclear reactor in the 1980s. They did nothing, because the UN operates with the consensus of the major power, and not according to who brings forward the best debate arguments.<br />Thanks again for the comment.Anonymoushttps://www.blogger.com/profile/15665812073292288344noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5169130203475264933.post-5775616033083743172012-07-23T03:22:53.571-04:002012-07-23T03:22:53.571-04:00Doctor, your premise is "to attack or not to ...Doctor, your premise is "to attack or not to attack Iran" but your Iranian positions are based on that of an Iranian first strike. Why is that? And I must caution you, sir, there is no such thing as an invitation to first strike in recent warfare, unless you qualify the ROK artillery bombardment against the DPRK prior to the latter's invasion of the former as a case of just such a scenario, which is what the DPRK has argued ever since. Or, according to the UN charter, there is a threat of first strike, and a preemptive strike is warranted. Obviously a first strike by the Islamic Republic is not in any way imminent.<br /><br />As a medical professional, your advocacy should be that of peace and preservation of life. Demonizing either side only serves the hawks of war.Mark Pyruzhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/00595161519097596575noreply@blogger.com